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The last few years have been great to me, as i was able to clobber the S&P500 many times in returns. But of course, you can't make a living trading the markets if you don't make great great returns. I'll try to give my readers trades that i think will make them money. However, you need to have money management skills, in order not to lose everything on a greedy or stupid trade. I may or may not already be in the trades i recommend. I may or may not trade the stocks i recommend. Due diligence is required on your part and the usual disclaimer that i am not responsible for your losses always apply. I have no affiliations with any broker/dealer and all posts are for educational purposes only. Remember to 'refresh' the home page and the "Comments" pages frequently in order to receive updated posts. Let's rock!

Tuesday, December 19, 2006

Buy QQQQ calls on the morning selloff.

QQQQ etf closed @ 43.99

I just don't think we end the week before Christmas by selling off. Not typical.

Day/swing trade. Play small if you're buying the call option (january near-the-money or in-the-money). Alternatively, you can buy the actual QQQQ bigger position near 43.50.


64 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Beanie:
Again a question on IMMC. Do you think it goes up from here or would you sell it? I noticed that it has come down from 10. You said it might rally this week. Where would you sell it? Thanks

Tue Dec 19, 05:21:00 AM EST  
Blogger beanie11111 said...

I'm watching United 93 movie right now and it's very emotional to watch. I feel bad for all those families who lost a loved one that day. Very sad.

What is also very sad to me is how unprepared our government was to deal with this, and also very sad to see how mr. Bush attacked a country that has very little to do with sept 11 and as a result brought about even more unnecessary civilian deaths.

I went to Wikipedia and read about the 20 or so hijackers that brought down 4 planes that day. Almost all of them originally came from Saudia Arabia. Most of them have travelled to Afghanistan but, from what i read, none ever traveled to Iraq. To proclaim that we can end terrorism thru Iraq, as mr. Bush had claimed, is beyond asinine to me.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Airlines_Flight_93

--------

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Responsibility_for_the_September_11,_2001_attacks

Iraq

Immediately after the attacks, rumors began that Iraq could have played a role. For former Clinton CIA Director James Woolsey, Iraq's prior documented contacts with al-Qaeda was enough to draw suspicion. Woolsey argued a supposed link between Iraqi intelligence, Ramzi Youssef and the 1993 World Trade Center bombing served as a smoking gun for Iraq's interests in the attack. [2] He suggested the grand jury investigation into the 1993 attack turned up evidence pointing to Iraq that the Clinton Justice Department "brushed aside." Neil Herman, who headed the FBI investigation into the 1993 World Trade Center attack, noted that despite Yasin's presence in Baghdad, there was no evidence of Iraqi support for the attack. "We looked at that rather extensively," he told CNN terrorism analyst Peter L. Bergen. "There were no ties to the Iraqi government." Bergen writes, "In sum, by the mid-'90s, the Joint Terrorism Task Force in New York, the F.B.I., the U.S. Attorney's office in the Southern District of New York, the C.I.A., the N.S.C., and the State Department had all found no evidence implicating the Iraqi government in the first Trade Center attack."[3]

Claims that Saddam was behind the 1993 bombing are based on the research of Laurie Mylroie of the conservative American Enterprise Institute. Her research has been heavily criticized and terrorism experts consider her argument utterly baseless. Bergen, for example, calls her a "crackpot" who claimed that "Saddam was not only behind the '93 Trade Center attack, but also every anti-American terrorist incident of the past decade, from the bombings of U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania to the leveling of the federal building in Oklahoma City to September 11 itself."[4] Daniel Benjamin, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, points out that "Mylroie's work has been carefully investigated by the CIA and the FBI.... The most knowledgeable analysts and investigators at the CIA and at the FBI believe that their work conclusively disproves Mylroie's claims.... Nonetheless, she has remained a star in the neoconservative firmament." (Daniel Benjamin and Steven Simon, The Next Attack New York: Times Books, 2005, p. 145. [ISBN 0-8050-7941-6]). Dr. Robert Leiken of the Nixon Center comments on the lack of evidence in her work: "Laurie has discovered Saddam’s hand in every major attack on US interests since the Persian Gulf War, including U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania and even the federal building in Oklahoma City. These allegations have all been definitively refuted by the FBI, the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) and other investigatory bodies...."[5]

Some members of the Bush administration reportedly began to draw up such theories immediately after the attacks. The state-run Iraqi media praised the attacks but denied that Iraq was responsible. Despite massive investigations by the CIA and the Office of Special Plans, no link between the government of Iraq and the 9/11 attacks was ever found. In September 2006, the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence concluded that "there is no evidence that Saddam Hussein had prewar ties to Al Qaeda and one of the terror organization’s most notorious members, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi" and that there was no evidence of any Iraqi support of al-Qaeda or foreknowledge of the September 11th attacks.[6]


-------


How much has our government spent on Iraq the last 5 years, with no end in sight? Is that $8 billion a month that i'm hearing? What can $8 billion a month do for OUR country? Alot.

Tue Dec 19, 06:06:00 AM EST  
Blogger beanie11111 said...

anonymous,

Yesterday's drop on IMMC was low volume. It'll probably drop a little more today to $3. It should bounce off that level.

I'm starting to think this may not be that big of news regarding the FDA approval of the test kit. After all, it's only a test kit, not like it's some type of blockbuster drug.

Tue Dec 19, 06:16:00 AM EST  
Blogger gosu said...

I know this is not a political blog and I want to say a lot, but will only just say one thing - the whole Iraq war was only about one thing and one thing only - price of oil. We have so many chart readers out there, just see for yourself here.

Tue Dec 19, 07:53:00 AM EST  
Blogger beanie11111 said...

QQQQ: let's only buy 1/2 position on the morning dip, and see what happens toward the close before adding the 2nd 1/2.

Initial support at 43.19 . If we close below 43, we may be in a corrective move to 40.

Tue Dec 19, 08:55:00 AM EST  
Blogger beanie11111 said...

PGLA: what was that halt all about? lol

Tue Dec 19, 10:07:00 AM EST  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Just to let everyone know, I got in PGLA at LOD thanks to my market order!

Thanks again Beanie for another great stock pick!!!

Tue Dec 19, 10:40:00 AM EST  
Blogger RA S said...

I am really surprised that there are still people today that don't know that it was men from Saudi Arabia that sponsored and took part in this attack.

Tue Dec 19, 10:43:00 AM EST  
Blogger RA S said...

Looking for a connection is easy. As trades we should see it pretty clearly.

Part One: "Hike in US defence spending to benefit Osama's family": Bin Laden-Bush business connection seen through Carlyle Group

"If the United States boosts defence spending in its quest to stop Saudi dissident Osama bin Laden's alleged terrorist activities, his family may be the unexpected beneficiary of that, media reports said. "Among its far-flung business interests, the well-heeled Saudi Arabian clan, which says it is estranged from Laden, is an investor in a fund established by Carlyle Group, a well-connected Washington merchant bank specialising in buyouts of defence and aerospace companies," The Wall Street Journal said in an investigative dispatch. It said "through this investment and its ties to Saudi royalty, the bin Laden family has become acquainted with some of the biggest names in the Republican Party." "In recent years, former president George H W Bush, ex-secretary of state James Baker and ex-secretary of defence Frank Carlucci have made the pilgrimage to the bin Laden family's headquarters in Jeddah (Saudi Arabia). "Ex-president Bush makes speeches on behalf of Carlyle Group and is senior adviser to its Asian Partners Fund, while Baker is its senior counsellor and Carlucci is the group's chairman," the journal said." --Hindustani Times, 9/28/01

Part Two : Inside The Carlyle Group

With former US Defense Secretary Frank Carlucci as its chairman, it's no surprise that The Carlyle Group is drawn to defense. Defense and aerospace firms such as United Defense Industries make up a significant share of the world's largest private equity firm's portfolio. Also represented are information technology (Federal Data), health care, real estate, and bottling companies. Since Carlucci joined in 1989, a host of staffers from the Reagan and first Bush administrations have stinted at the company, including ex-Secretary of State James Baker and ex-budget chief Richard Darman. Former President Bush and former UK Prime Minister John Major have also made appearances. --Hoovers Online

Saddam Hussein is just a scap goat..and another reason to send the outstanding dolar surplus created before Bush came to be president.

Tue Dec 19, 11:00:00 AM EST  
Blogger beanie11111 said...

QQQQ: You should be very profitable if you caught the dip like i ask ya to.

Tue Dec 19, 11:01:00 AM EST  
Blogger beanie11111 said...

TRMM: I will do some more research on this company. It seems i may have glanced thru it too quickly yesterday as i was looking at only the 3 months chart. When i pulled out the yearly chart, especially at the beginning of 2003, i am wondering how it got from $2 to $30. This could be a really good turnaround play. We'll see.

Tue Dec 19, 11:07:00 AM EST  
Blogger RA S said...

RVBD is HOTTTT......

Tue Dec 19, 11:08:00 AM EST  
Blogger beanie11111 said...

MAMA: this mama been very sexy

Tue Dec 19, 11:46:00 AM EST  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

anyone watching TSTC

it's up again today after a big gainer yesterday

very low floater w/ less than 5M & only 9M outstanding

TSTC offers integrated wireless coverage solutions and equipment to telecommunications industry in China

their big into the new 3G technology & sports over 0.51 EPS

Tue Dec 19, 11:50:00 AM EST  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

loaded up on JST dip tooday at 24, bought some iig at 30.50....bought some aapl at 84.60...hopefully im right....Brett

Tue Dec 19, 11:53:00 AM EST  
Blogger RA S said...

TSTC: I was in it but got out yesterday. Pretty poor exit timing on my part.

Tue Dec 19, 11:55:00 AM EST  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Brett,
Kind of an interesting article on big caps like aapl:

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/markets/activetraderupdate/10328544.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

Interesting take.

Tue Dec 19, 11:58:00 AM EST  
Blogger RA S said...

XNN: Held @ 2.50 through the morning selloff.

Tue Dec 19, 12:00:00 PM EST  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

lee, thanx for that article. That is concerning, but alot of times those guys are wrong. But ill watch the chart, and if it falls through the 50 day mva, ill prob get out and just wait...Brett

Tue Dec 19, 12:06:00 PM EST  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

RA S

what are your thoughts on TSTC

why did you exit?

it looks like TSTC has some pretty strong legs

Tue Dec 19, 12:09:00 PM EST  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Board,

to all the longs that is holding on to XNN.....as long as we stay around $2.50 we will be okay. I know some of you want to sell it and I completely understand. I feel like that sometimes but I know better. AS long as the dip is not because of bad news we will do just fine. We are one good news away from a double.
Hang in there if you can.

JSPADE

Tue Dec 19, 12:09:00 PM EST  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Beanie,

Have another stock and would like to hear your opinion. DECT...I believe you mentioned it last week.
I didn't buy any but at this price sure does look good. Book value is around $4 and with the low float, this thing could take off anyday now. What do you think

Thanks

JSPADE

Tue Dec 19, 12:17:00 PM EST  
Blogger RA S said...

Anonymous:

I left TSTC for the same reason I retreat from all up side moves. To make a profit and move forward by not tying up my resources in hoping for more.

I like the China stocks and believe there is alot of money to be made in playing them through the coming year. I tend to trust in them more than I do the US exchanges because China is looking to expand enormously and the last thing the government wants is to be excluded from the market place. So integrity is most important to them in the market place,.... at this time. The AMX is more threatening to my resourses than any China stock.

Tue Dec 19, 12:37:00 PM EST  
Blogger RA S said...

Here is the current list of China stocks I follow that I got from a recent edition of the IBD:

tstc
asia
china
caas
chu
aob
xing
grrf
cogo
jst
sohu
mr
ncty
hnp
hmin
chl
efut
cha
ctrp
fmcn
bidu
ptr

The IBD regarded these as TOP CHINESE FIRMS that trade in U.S.
(or FINE CHINA)

Tue Dec 19, 12:50:00 PM EST  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

ras,

I follow couple company on your list...XING,GRRF,AOB,CAAS. I wish there was more transparency and timely report.

JSPADE

Tue Dec 19, 12:59:00 PM EST  
Blogger RA S said...

Anonymous:

Thats the problem with China stocks. But the track record of the individual stocks and the fact that we all know that China is the next global consumer of almost everything makes it a little more comforting for me. Remember what hapened in the cement industry. China was buying up all the cement and even diverting sea transports by offering a better price for delivery causing that industry stock to go through the roof.

Tue Dec 19, 01:05:00 PM EST  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

DKAM mentioned this one on Friday at $1.40 pps. .. Hope some of you have watching very nice this week .. and yes to whomever asked .. This is KP

Tue Dec 19, 01:13:00 PM EST  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Beanie,
What's your take on LVLT? With the dilution of shares from the BWNG purchase, do you see this stock holding at current levels? I was buying up until just under $6 -- but overall I'm up just under 10% on this one. Should I get out while I can? Thanks

Tue Dec 19, 01:28:00 PM EST  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Beanie:
Any guidance on NUVO? If it does not hold 4, which it looks like, are we in trouble? My podrtfolio is pretty dismal (XNN, NUVU, IMMC) Oh well I will wait.

Thanks

ps I agree whole-heartedly with your Iraq assessment. When is the Binb Laden/Bush family connection ever going to be made an issue? If these guys weren't so greedy they would be all over you for such a so called liberal/commie assessment. Pretty funny, I think.

Tue Dec 19, 01:47:00 PM EST  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

sorry--but as an academic in political science and humanities--I would ask you to please be careful of confusing liberal with "commie." Two very different things! I realize that you were probably being tongue in cheek -- but you'd be surprised how many of our nation's 'educated' youth still buy into these false labels.

Tue Dec 19, 01:56:00 PM EST  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Neil:
I was being ficitious (sp). I realize the distinction. I'm just trying to be funny. I am a liberal, non communist!
America view everything in such dichotomies. This is convenient for our leaders.

Tue Dec 19, 02:31:00 PM EST  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Everyone : Buy some ESCL , she's headed to $10 soon with the news came out today . It's @ $8.85 right now , don't miss it !

Tue Dec 19, 02:39:00 PM EST  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anonymous

I would not play ESCL here....If I did, I would probaly short it.

JSPADE

Tue Dec 19, 02:48:00 PM EST  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

hoping for a good news for either XNN or NUVO ....i'm down on both :(

~Jil

Tue Dec 19, 02:48:00 PM EST  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

~Jil,

I am also waiting for good news on XNN. Don't mean to get you down but I think no news until JAN..

JSPADE

Tue Dec 19, 02:55:00 PM EST  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

s JSPADE...

even i feel so ...even for NUVO.
holiday season.. hope it revives after holidays!!!

~Jil

Tue Dec 19, 02:57:00 PM EST  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

ESCL dropped from $35 to $5 in a short time just because of this scandal . Today it's investigation found " no evident that the co. attempted either to defraud Afinsa or to collude with Afinsa" .

Tue Dec 19, 03:04:00 PM EST  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

hey anon,
I realized that you were joking-- I think I'm just being testy. Imagine this: I teach at reasonably good, major research university. I just got done grading a paper about Napoleon Bonaparte in which the student misspelled "Napoleon" as "Neapolitan" (as in the ice cream, or resident of Naples) through the ENTIRE paper!!!! I work very hard at what I do...yet most of my work ends up being about giving students the rudimentary skills that they should have picked up in high school, but didn't.

Tue Dec 19, 03:17:00 PM EST  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anonymous

ESCL: I'm not saying it won't go to $10 or even higher. just don't like it here bc its up %100. TO risky for me. GOOD LUCK

JSPADE

Tue Dec 19, 03:26:00 PM EST  
Blogger RA S said...

ESCL is hopfully going to dip here before closing. Might be a good time to get in.

Tue Dec 19, 03:32:00 PM EST  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

has anyone else noticed that the site has been formatted weird lately on the page for some reason?

-mark the rat

Tue Dec 19, 03:35:00 PM EST  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

yes MTR ...

i do see format problem.. didnt bother.. as i could read the posts :)


~Jil

Tue Dec 19, 03:40:00 PM EST  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

JSt JST.Picked up some more here at 22....HEy beaniee111...JSt jsut dropped 8$ annoucing that there offering 1.35m shares for sale...I really dont understand this. Can someone check this out and explain it to me ..thanx.....Brett

Tue Dec 19, 03:43:00 PM EST  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Brett,

JST: From what I know, they are selling the shares at a average price of $19... Hope this helps

JSPADE

Tue Dec 19, 03:47:00 PM EST  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Thanx 4 the info..Well thats good i guess....I bought alot of shares at 20.20..and just a little at 22...I have no idea what this means for the future..hopefully we are getting a deal right now...Brett

Tue Dec 19, 03:53:00 PM EST  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Brett,

You will be okay for mid-long term
I wouldn't lose sleep over it.

JSPADE

Tue Dec 19, 03:57:00 PM EST  
Blogger RA S said...

Beanie:

Do you think HTI will move forward tomorrow?

thanx

Tue Dec 19, 03:59:00 PM EST  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Beanie / Board ,

FTWR ended HOD ..

Comments pls.


~Jil

Tue Dec 19, 04:06:00 PM EST  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Beanie & Board,
Any thoughts on FFHL? IPO today, 3.75 million shares & closed @$11+ on high volume. Message board @ thelion.com talking about this being the next EFUT. I'm in at $9.36 and hoping for more.

Bob

Tue Dec 19, 04:14:00 PM EST  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Bob,

Thanks for the early notice about FFHL!

:)

-mark the rat

Tue Dec 19, 04:30:00 PM EST  
Blogger beanie11111 said...

I think you folks did really well today, whatever you were buying. Congrats.

Tue Dec 19, 05:16:00 PM EST  
Blogger beanie11111 said...

SYNM: I used to love this stock until i stopped lovin it. This company has huge potential as long as oil stays above $40.

It looks like it's in play once again. Let's see if it's got more momo tomorrow.

Tue Dec 19, 05:19:00 PM EST  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

FTWR-Fiber Tower. Large Float 144 M.
Losing money but decent qtrly rev growth at 140%. This one got possibility but they have enough competition-AT&T and Verizon. Unless they can generate more positive cash flows from revenue ....

Tue Dec 19, 05:20:00 PM EST  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Neil:
Just a follow-up to what I was saying about dichotomies. I live overseas and sometimes feel it is difficult to argue politics in America. Europeons have said they are afraid to argue politics with most Americans. (If you have anything, but the most extreme conservervative view you are branded as a liberal/radical now.
I think the extreme conservative faction has captured the high ground (patriotism, family values, religion) and they attack relentlessly anything/anyone that disagrees with them as being against these values. The liberals are on the run and afraid to call themselves liberal. And this is wrong. Political dialogue is healthy. Stifling it is not!
I think this extremism stems from the fact that we always feel we have the best of everything, the best political system, the best religion, the most prosperous and freest country. I am not disputing these views. I'm just saying that we have to learn to be more flexible and except critisism from others (even the French!) without crawling into a FOXhole and going to war, figuratively and literally. Our politics have become like a religion to us.
There that is my view. I'm probably preaching to the choir.

Tue Dec 19, 05:50:00 PM EST  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Beanie:
I did not do well today. I am not blaming anyone, I am just stating a fact. I am holding XNN, DTV, SOFO, IMMC, a little MED, and NUVO. I'm down about $2000 and holding. I've had 7 straight down days. I don't think I am alone. Like I said I am not blaming anyone, but I'm getting a little bummed out by it. It is either hold and wait for better times or take the losses and move on. Anybody have any suggestions on these positions?

Jim

Tue Dec 19, 06:16:00 PM EST  
Blogger beanie11111 said...

Amazing! QQQQ dipped to a predicted amount this morning. You be smilin if you bought those calls.


See ya tomorrow!

Tue Dec 19, 06:18:00 PM EST  
Blogger beanie11111 said...

Jim,

You should not have a loss in XNN & SOFO if you got in the price i recommended. Same goes with DTV.

MED & NUVO are the recommendations that are down. NUVO down slightly. MED down alot, and it's a great time to double down at the 10-11 area.


Come the January Effects rally, i think everything will be ok


Be patient and use extra cash to buy the new recommendations.

Tue Dec 19, 06:23:00 PM EST  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Jim,

I know you are geting impatience because you're not the only one. I can't promise you when XNN will go up but I know in the long run, you will be greatly rewarded.(as long as everything goes to plan) Just remember "SLOW AND EASY WINS THE RACE".... I don't know any daytrader that has outperformed the long term Investor.

JSPADE

Tue Dec 19, 07:01:00 PM EST  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Thanks Beanie and JSPADE:
Beanie:
Would you cut losses on IMMC? Thanks


Jim

Tue Dec 19, 07:35:00 PM EST  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Beanie!,

had a quick question, nvda insider trading, lots of selling, what do you think ? and from you stock picks which do you believe will be a good 3-6 month gainer? and finally do you think ach is a good play?

Thanks!
-jw

Tue Dec 19, 08:48:00 PM EST  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Thursday, November 02, 2006
NVDA: The graphics chips monster

NVDA closed @ 32.18

I keep on watching this stock for over a year now and never pulled the trigger. Man, i gotta go get my mercury amalgams checked.

Intermediate to longer term play.

********************************
Dear Beanie,
that was your post from Nov, NVDA up another 6 points....did you get your brain checked? :)

-mark the rat

Tue Dec 19, 09:22:00 PM EST  
Blogger beanie11111 said...

NVDA: lol, markrat.

jw, NVDA is a top notch stock. Why would anyone want to dump this stock? Going higher!

Tue Dec 19, 09:46:00 PM EST  
Blogger beanie11111 said...

Jim,

Regarding IMMC, you probably want to sell it and put that money into TRMM instead. At this point, i like TRMM more than IMMC. (Guess what? After you sell IMMC, it'll probably rally. lol. jk)

Honestly, i like TRMM more than IMMC. You'll probably get all your losses back. Remember to use all the money from the sale of IMMC and put it in TRMM.

That's what i would do. (Hopefully i won't end up saying, "Yikes! My bad!") lol

Tue Dec 19, 09:51:00 PM EST  
Blogger beanie11111 said...

TRMM:

btw, i bought some this morning at 2.04 . The major reason why i like this stock right now is because i found out that Seth Klarman, fund manager of Baupost Fund, bought over 1 million shares 3 months ago at average $4. Mr. Klarman is a respected deep value fund manager. He now has over 2.4 million shares which he paid alot higher ($3-$9) than the current price.

The catalyst for the recent runup was due to mr. Thomas Ko (you remember him don't you?) recommending it at $1.60 and giving it a $6 target.

Tue Dec 19, 09:56:00 PM EST  

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