Will we crash?
posted by beanie11111 | 9:49 PM
About Me
- Name: beanie11111
- Location: USA
The last few years have been great to me, as i was able to clobber the S&P500 many times in returns. But of course, you can't make a living trading the markets if you don't make great great returns. I'll try to give my readers trades that i think will make them money. However, you need to have money management skills, in order not to lose everything on a greedy or stupid trade. I may or may not already be in the trades i recommend. I may or may not trade the stocks i recommend. Due diligence is required on your part and the usual disclaimer that i am not responsible for your losses always apply. I have no affiliations with any broker/dealer and all posts are for educational purposes only. Remember to 'refresh' the home page and the "Comments" pages frequently in order to receive updated posts. Let's rock!
- AMZN delivers!!
- A little bit of heaven in EMC
- Red Alert! August Correction?
- 6 stocks to boost your porfolio!
- BIDU is headed to $1,000!!!
- Time to whack NVDA!
- Both AAPL & BIDU on afterburner!
- YGE - a solar you need to own!!!
- AAPL going red today!! Short it!!
- Is the bull market done?
89 Comments:
I think the bull market in the financials are essentially done, even if they rally. That is the cyclical nature of the market. After the financials bull market, the next sector to take off should be technology. In fact, the big boys have already prepared for that. Look at the technology stocks as of late, they are pretty resilient in the face of this correction.
So i suggest you start buying technology this coming week, if you don't already own them.
Take a look at CSCO. Hardly a dent to this stock while everything else fell off the cliff. This stock will be the first to rally hard when the correction is done (and it could already be done last friday). This is definately the big cap tech stock to watch.
Another maniac to watch is AMAT - Applied Materials. Not even a dent!
So i think technology will be the sector to lead us into the year end rally.
unbelievable how the mood of the market changes practically overnight
all these terrible headlines appear on my news scroller
even crazy ones like
credit market problems are seen spreading to the financing of hollywood movies....geez
EBAY doesn't want to go lower.
BIDU is as tough as an ox.
RIMM you can't even take it down if you were Bill Gates.
BIDU:
I like it alot. It's going to $1,000 whether the Americans like it or not.
Buy buy buy!
see i understand tech has been relatively resilient but how can the markets justify even higher P/Es on techs (with the highest P/Es except solar) when the P/E of all the financials will be in the toilets (even considering earnings will drop this quarter) and if the indicies dip into negative terrtiory on the year?
I think only a select number of old techs will rise maybe 20-50%. But the focus will likely be on the NEW LEADERS of tech. Some of them will be names we've never heard of.
what a joke was the chinese influence on our february crash
we are back to levels seen before the feb crash and china is up more than 50% from its levels pre feb 10% crash.
well i'd like to see some new tech names and stocks, but the rate of innovation in tech has slowed imo
Hot new tech leaders will be names like:
GRMN
NVT
BIDU
RIMM
JNPR
CSCO
amat
NVDA
smallcaps like:
SMSI
SMDI
and many more
don't forget EMC
and sndk
of course SNDK and EMC, how can i forget?
The House just passed the Energy Tax Credit bill, where oils get tax and the money goes to alternative energy.
Witness the pieces coming together to fuel the hugest
rally you have ever seen in your lifetime -
alternative energy and specifically solars!
Get ready my friends. The time is almost here.
Destiny awaits for solars.
You still don't believe in solars?
Believe it now!
You mean until that bill gets creamed in the Senate and/or vetoed by the Prez?
Not for the incentives, but for the penurious tax increases on the oil industry.
Farking Democrats, when will they ever learn?
Flog this, solar bears!
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/070804/usa_energy_house.html?.v=1
jakegint,
It really doesn't matter what the Senate or the Prez does at this point. They could slow it down for the time being, but when the democrats win the presidency next year, everything goes back to what is right and true.
The people who tells ya that only the alternative
energy companies receive federal incentives are plainly
just LIARS! Even the oil industry STILL receives
federal incentives to this day!!!!
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/070804/usa_energy_house.html?.v
=1
LIARS LIARS LIARS! It's not gonna stop the alternative
energy bull market either way. The time is almost
here, my friends. Almost here.
Oil lobbyists are ruthless. But their time will come. You'll see.
I think Cramer is a good contrarian indicator.
Who SOLD OUT a piece of national treasure vital to our survival, to Russians, dirt cheap? On paragraph 4.
Watch out SWC on monday for earnings release after hour. Crooks knocked down SWC from $16.47 to $8.56 in less than 3 months, for no good reason. Maybe they want to sell the remainder to Russians cheap?
Deeply oversold, I expect a blowout SWC quarterly earning, and from here SWC MUST have a dramatic reversal and a great rally on the good earnings. Don't let go of the opportunity!
Solar flare!!!!!!!!!!
vroom vroom vroom
The futures are now up as i type this.
If friday turns out to be essentially the bottom, i give props to mr. Jim Cramers. He is more brilliant a man than i first thought and he truly knows the market.
FOMC meeting tues, market reacts 11:30 west coast, i think my investigation of the matter, clearly signals the market going up 200+ that day...
zee
the sub-prime issue can be resolved with one-quarter of a percent interest rate decline, but the feds are in no hurry....go to the grocery store....are prices down?....one more increase in MARCH 08 then after that THE BIG CRASH.....
Do you know what would happen if a solar company comes
out and says, "We are happy to announce that we have
indeed achieved grid parity with our solar cells."?
Did cramer predict the bottom on friday? I don't think he said anything like that?? Anyways, is AKAM a good buy at this point beanie?
looks like lower opening, but rally's to positive by mid morning, according to DOW futures, euro ( frankfurt) site...
zee
Lane,
No, Cramer never said it was the bottom. Whether intentional or not, he brought out all the bears on friday. I mean, ALL OF THEM. Alot of weak bullish investors probably also capitulated that day. He painted the WORST case scenerio there possibly could be. It is as though the world was about to end. Usually, at the darkest hours, there tend to be light. This is how bottoms are usually made.
I thought it was kinda strange that he told his viewers to get in tech the same day, right before he went on air to pour his heart out about subprime. I think he and many people knew that the end of the financials bull market is here, and that tech will be the next to lead. In a market cycle, the techs tend to take the lead after the financials fall.
That is not to say the subprime worries are not serious. It is. But i doubt it is something the fed can't fix, or that the subprime worries is gonna cause any immediate danger to the US economy. Alot of Americans still have jobs. Earnings from many companies are good. Oil prices are stabilizing and headed lower. Inflation is visible in our everyday lives, but not rampant. (Not all foods are noticeably expensive. You can still get sunflower seeds for 1 buck a bag, or water at 34 cents a gallon, or 12 cans of coca cola for $3, or 5 corns for $1.)
Friday is as negative a day as i've ever seen in all my years of trading, with the exception of 9/11. And on the weekend, the media had a field day with their doom and gloom headlines. This is a sign of a near term bottom.
Btw, AKAM is a steal at these prices.
this market looks very deadly
if fed doesnt cut tomorrow...the SPY will be negative for the year by tomorrow's close
You're a Democrat supporter on top of everything else?
I just don't know how you can justify it, being a stock investor, when the first thing those morons want to do when they seize power (and it's all about power to socialists) is re-raise the capital gains tax.
If you've passed high school math, you know that immediately discounts the market by whatever the percentage amount of the raise.
Hmm..
Wonder why under Bill Clinton, the inflation was tame, the stock market was roaring and there was peace and prosperity everywhere.
Of course, now we are spending billions of dollars building bridges in Iraq while the ones out here are coming crashing down.
And, not to forget OSAMA BIN LADEN is still sipping margarita somewhere safe.
ron paul for president!
KBH is fast sinking. It could get really brutal there if the fed doesn't do anything soon.
And FED WILL NOT do anything.
As long as the fed stands pat, BSC is a natural short. Could be the next Enron.
Bear Stearns is NOT the next Enron. The main difference - Enron was hiding everything. Bear Stearns is taking the initiative in transparency and being open about everything.
Even though I dont strongly disagree on it being a short.
i would save some spare cash on the sidelines cause if the FED does not cut tomorrow, there will be a spectatular buying opportunity after a 4% crash tomorrow
BSC ceo disappeared during the conference. This is a bad sign. Very bad sign.
Whenever people do this, it means they are hiding something. BSC smells like it's gonna collapse like Enron.
So why is LEH down so much??
What are they hiding???
As of May 31, 2007 Bear Sterns had total assets of $423 billion and net equity of $13.3 billion.
To quote Molinaro, since June 1, it is the worst market he has seen in 22 years. Assume that means a market move against their assets of 2%, that means that BSC is leveraged as of today at 99 to 1.
I sure hope their hedges hold up.
John B
What is the best short ETF? QID, SDS?
MZZ
is a good short ETF.
Beanie, what is your take on CSUN? Down big today. I am holding it from 12.5. Get out right now or wait for solar on fire again? Thanks.
Your point is taken on spending money in Iraq, but we're only doing that now, Gosu, because Bill Clinton was ignoring OBL and attacks on our country & personel all that time.
And he had a Republican Congress running the show fiscally. Unfortunately, they ran the show a little too tight and caused the recession of late 2000, early 2001. Sometimes too much debt control can be a bad thing.
Why would you think a President, save for national security issues, would have anything to do with an economy? It's all about the purse strings and the ability to tax, which is all Congress.
Didn't they have a review of all this minutiea in your naturalization classes?
If you think tax-a-holic socialist Dems running Congress is a good thing for the market, it's time to revisit econ 101.
because Bill Clinton was ignoring OBL
7 years since September 11. 3000 people dead.
OBL is still alive and kicking.
Sorry, Who is ignoring OBL???
And of course you forgot Donald Rumsfield in Iraq shaking hands with Saddam hussein in 1983 making sure he as all the weapons of mass destruction he needs to gas the kurds and Iranians.
http://www.injusticebusters.com/index.htg/00001/saddam_Rumsfeld.jpg
Suck on that JakeDense.
very nice reversal so far but it means nothing
we need a 2- 2.5 day rally
Yun,
if you havent sold CSUN by now, it's too late. Yes, the solars will rise again, spectacularly. They're in the middle of a correction right now.
Don't buy more yet until you see the white of their eyes.
Beanie's Guru Contrarian Trend Theory seems to be working.
8 for 8 so far.
If you want to short stocks, please wait for a rally. We are just too oversold and this ain't October (so don't expect a crash any time soon).
we are seeing divergence with BSC compared to the other 4 big brokers
thats good news
hey if BSC goes under, more business for the other big i-banks
BSC will not go under. Very diversified and they are not putting their money on the line.
Whats going on with EBAY. Very interesting action.
WOW!
MASTERCARD - Went from 123 to 133 in two hours!!!
MA is unreal today
im hoping for a huge rally in afternoon and tomorrow and i'll lighten up by 12-1
Wow, did you see CFC run up 6% then pull back?
I'm really lost here. don't know what to buy. I cut back on some positions to build cash.
AIG +3%, EBAY +3%, MA +3%
C, MO, PE, WMT, PG, JNJ, AMAT all +2%... big cap DOWs holding it down. small caps, and stuff with lots of debt getting creamed. Check out LVLT down 4%
BSC IS POSITIVE
ROCK AND ROLL TIL TOMORROW AROUND 10-11
MA back to above 150 before the end of the week???
Brilliantly done, Mr. Jim Cramer! Well done.
If you're holding a stock that is not up today.... you gotta ask yourself... why? re-check your thesis.
i think cramer took a tranquilizer right before stop trading today.
BHI hit my target price 75.1=0.61..fib, so i think RIG,DO,MRO,XLE may be at the bottom as well...buying the MRO sept 50- call 2.10
And TV107 keep rocking after 11:00 tomorrow...looks like , RELIEF RALLY HAS ARRIVED...
zee
I have been telling you this all along.
gosu said...
One more thing:
Bear Stearns will not declare bankruptcy.
When the .com bubble busted - amazon, ebay, yahoo survived. The survival of the fittest.
When the mortgage bubble bursts - the best of the breed - Countrywide, Bear Stearns will survive.
American home mortgage, novastar, new century etc. are like the etoys.com
Sun Aug 05, 09:38:00 AM EDT
NYX: does this crap have any support? It looks like shit today !
man Z, MRO straight down the last 5 days... that's a falling knife i'd wait to see an authoritative uptick before buying
Dont forget - NYX and LVLT are Cramers Stocks of the year
Hrmm.. How did Cramer's stock(s) of the year do last year? I remember ATI was one of them... took a breather in the summer and ran hard late in the year. +140%
Can Cramer orchestrate a win in his Stocks of the year? It sure would be good for ratings!!
MRO might have just performed that uptick...
Yeah, Gosu, congrats on Bear Stearns not going bk, that was a righteously risky call.
Not as risky as calling for Dow 12,900 or backing Bill Clinton's defense policies, but righeously risky in any case.
Boned up on how the three branches of gov't interact yet? There will be a test before any swearing in.
Where are we going next, Gosu? Dow 12,900 tomorrow?
yeah MRO BHI DIA go go go
BNI and FDX, go go go
zee
12,700 jake, 12,900 isn't on any support lines, besides in order for dow to get to 15,000, dow has to hold at 13,000, and it is!!!!!!!
the fix is in....
zee
I suggest you take something off the table if you're long. The market should drop in the morning tomorrow. Sell now or sell afterhours.
XLF is dead...the new market performers are XLI and XLV...beleive it.....
Zee
Better learn to trade PCAR, BMY....
Whos your daddy?
gosu said...
LVS is back in business. Back above 100 in no time
Tue Jul 31, 10:10:00 AM EDT
LVS is at 101 after hours today after a 15 dollar run up in 4 days.
i sold out of my brokers and mastercard before the close
made some money short on WYNN after hours
Gose:
I'm pretty sure you're not my daddy.
Catcher:
Please don't set him off like that. Do you note how he and I just "banter" and he does not meltdown into complete crybaby mode? I take note of the thin skin problem and lack of any sense of humor. This site would be better off if you did the same.
Let's try to keep it civil, eh people?
TV --
Any thoughts on the BKX bounce today?
Maybe not so dead cat, given the close above 107....
Gose,
One a more serious note, what's the deal with your obsession with putting Osama's pic in your blog posts?
Is he a homie from the village or something?
Seriously, I have friends that were killed by that asswhole. Knock it off.
re: BKX technicals are being violated all over the place...it's all about market sentiment
tomorrow will be beyond our wildest imaginations....i closed out most of my positions to maximize daytrading buying power tomorrow.
dont follow BKX much
i like trading brokers rather than banks
i did pick up some regional banks at the close friday as part of a long term diversification high yield portfolio.
NVTL: You should be in this one people. Great earnings.
IF the stock didn’t make it in to positive territory today, it’s probably going down tommorow...TSL down tommorow, probably.and FOMC helping, turned to 50/50,due today’s rally....there’s just so many major companies below RSI 25, i know from past experience, (GAS,LIZ) that it takes a long time for them to climb into the rsi 40’s again....
zee
Please leave the politics out of this...and Jake, get your facts straight about what Socialism really is, about what Bill Clinton DID try to do about Bin Laden, and dammit, why didn't I buy Bidu when it was at 120!
Guys, consider buying AAPL now and every dip before it takes off again!
LOL! Yes, avoid discussing politics here and religion too- there will be plenty of things to disagree. Good trading to all!
This is why the BSC rallied.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB118645060764690042.html?mod=yahoo_hs&ru=yahoo
maybe you saw this already, but here's cramer's response to friday's spastic stop trading diatribe:
http://videoplayer.thestreet.com/?clipId=1373_10372626&channel=Cramer+On+Demand&cm_ven=&cm_cat=&cm_ite=&puc=&ts=1186455052038&bt=NS&bp=MAC&bst=FF&biec=false&format=flash&bitrate=300
Wow! The guru contrarian theory actually works lol
beanie11111 said...
This is why the BSC rallied.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB118645060764690042.html?mod=yahoo_hs&ru=yahoo
Mon Aug 06, 10:52:00 PM EDT
No Sir, I have been telling you this all along:
beanie11111 said...
As long as the fed stands pat, BSC is a natural short. Could be the next Enron.
Mon Aug 06, 10:34:00 AM EDT
gosu said...
Bear Stearns is NOT the next Enron. The main difference - Enron was hiding everything. Bear Stearns is taking the initiative in transparency and being open about everything.
Mon Aug 06, 10:42:00 AM EDT
Post a Comment
<< Home