Time to whack NVDA!
NVDA trades @ 43.40 right now.
Earnings is august 9th.
Buy the aug 40 puts (or aug 45 puts) at .80 or better. You might want to wait till tomorrow for a market bounce before buying. Up to you depending on how much risk you're willing to take at this point.
All or nothing play. We hold thru earnings.
Good luck.
Earnings is august 9th.
Buy the aug 40 puts (or aug 45 puts) at .80 or better. You might want to wait till tomorrow for a market bounce before buying. Up to you depending on how much risk you're willing to take at this point.
All or nothing play. We hold thru earnings.
Good luck.
posted by beanie11111 | 2:38 PM
64 Comments:
Sell off accelerating. question is: when to deploy cash? and where? all of my charts are broken...
gosu? z? beanie? anyone?
i am on vacation and 100% cash, feeling for you guys today.
I've been a long time reader but have never posted. But I think that ICE might be a strong buy here going into the end of the day, especially with the recent pullback b4 this correction and staying pretty steady here despite the chaos. Plus good earnings numbers that havn't been rewarded yet. Any thoughts?
Zee, you are the man.
SeanB, yes, Ice was a good buy at 141, I was late and picked it up at 142, regardless going back up.
I said Akam good buy at mid 30s, it did bottom at 35 and bounced off nicely, total overreaction
http://flyonwallstreet.blogspot.com
Fly is reporting that Pershing crashed today and during the downtime the markets rallied, but when it came back up the market selling resumed. Interesting.
Benie,
for NVDA, What we do if we buying stocks and not options?
AKAM should be up to 43-44 by August Option Expiration
way oversold
CROX did an Amazon
low balled estimates from analysts
easily crushed
i need to start researching analyst estimates before stocks report
NVDA is a very strong stock...scary shorting it
~V
BEANS,
I have around 120,000 to invest on a growth stock.I was thinking of letting the solars report earnings this fall to see which 1 may be becoming the leader plus let them settle and weed out the laggards from the best in class.Whats your thoughts on this? I think STP or SPWR is my favorites right now but YGE may jump up.Just think we need a little more earnings/info before deciding.
This comment has been removed by the author.
Sweeet!!
CATCHERNTHERYE said...
Jake,
I just went long the yen, looking for a few point gain next few weeks or so. Just my uneducated opinion tho.
I think the carry trade unwinds some next week. Hope so at least. If not the call prices are pretty decent right now. Sept. 83-84, or a 84-88 spread.
Stocks: BHI - nice 3 day candle pattern , easy stops @ $81-82 , at lower trendline now, should be a 5% upside min, or wait for BO above $86.25 . lotsa selling volume lately so watch out.
ZQK- bought yesterday - at lower trendline as well, strong close yesterday, but only short term play. easy stops as well, 8-10% upside
Fri Jun 08, 09:07:00 AM
Made 10% on BHI, Stopped out at $89 for a 9 point gain.
Made 13% in ZQK in a two days.
Up a few hundred % in my FXY calls. [long the yen, was at $81 then] now trading at $84.21 [jake.]
Lets see some real posts gosu, not after the fact shit or "come on 12900" bullshit.Tell us where the stock or index is going, targets, stops etc. before the moves. I think your still full of shit.At least I post what I think.before the move.
Bought calls on the dow and S&P at end of day.
CATCHERNTHERYE said...
oh yeah, THC [ gotta love that symbol] in a nice consolidation pattern, play break either way. But downside seems more reward less risk play.
At long term support, but chart action, volume and patterns lead me to think downside breakout likely, Target @ $6.10
Due your own homework on all your holdings.
Fri Jun 08, 09:19:00 AM
closed today at $5.55 for an 18% gain so far on the short. The puts up a little over 200%.
And WFMI hit my downside target of 37 today [called two months ago], but I still wouldn't buy it.
catcher
gosu said...
Buy some stocks! But I think the best time would be when market goes down another 60-70 points tomorrow morning first thing.
Tue Jul 24, 03:53:00 PM EDT
HAHAHAHA, LOL, ROFLMAO
Wrong again,Market opened UP, and rallied 65 points then we all know what happened today.
I AM A MORON AND YOU KNOW IT.
Damn, this sell off has completely screwed me up.
HELP ME HELP ME
I HAD TO PUT MY TESTICLES ON PAWN SHOP.
DAMN! THE PAWN SHOP GUY TELLS ME THAT MY TESTICLES ARE REALLY ROTTEN.
managed to pare the losses by quite a bit last 2 hours today....went from worst day ever to 2nd worst day of '07 so still not a banner day. past five sessions have been brutal to the account, absolutely brutal at 5%+ loss in account for me. that is enough to really feel it. 14 straight up days in account followed by 5 brutal down days which at one point today had nearly wiped out the entire month of trading gains. Rebounded in afternoon so still looking at a gain this month, but we've three sessions left so who knows! Quite disheartening though when working on a good month to nearly give everything back in a week.
A great opportunity in SWC, which had been battered down 25% in 4 days by a desperate concentrated short who is unable to unwind its huge short position. Expect some great resersal tomorrow because this is one absolutely oversold stock with very bullish fundamentals.
I have done my research and explained everything about this concentrated short. Follow my link and do your own DD.
This is a rare opportunity you do NOT want to miss tomorrow. At least 10% profit in one day!!!
I just bought AAPL & INTC a lot today. Got this from CNBC. :-)
The year with the greatest amount of 300 point drops since 1987:
In 2001, the Dow fell more than 300 points four times.
In 2000, the Dow fell more than 300 points four times.
In 2002, the Dow fell more than 300 points twice.
In 1998, the Dow fell more than 300 points twice .
In 2007, excluding today, the Dow fell more than 300 points once,
In 2003, the Dow fell more than 300 points once.
In 1997, the Dow fell more than 300 points once.
In 1987, the Dow fell more than 300 points once.
After a 300 point drop in the Dow (16 Occurrences, not including today)...
1 Day later the Dow is up 75% of the time, an average of 2.04%
1 Day later the S&P 500 is up 75% of the time, an average of 2.28%
1 Day later the NASDAQ is up 56% of the time, an average of 3.76%
1 Week later the Dow is up 63% of the time, an average of 3.31%
1 Week later the S&P 500 is up 63% of the time, an average of 3.08%
1 Week later the NASDAQ is up 44% of the time, an average of 5.52%
1 Month later the Dow is up 75% of the time, an average of 6.27%
1 Month later the S&P 500 is up 74.67% of the time, an average of 5.12%
1 Month later the NASDAQ is up 66.67% of the time, an average of 6.22%
DIA
0.38 fib = 131.9
0.61= 127.0 fib Take your pick, one is the real bottom to this pullback...im waiting for retest of 131.9 / 131.14 before i buy, a whole lot ...
zee
i like OSK, it was up today, and ICE holding at 0.38 fib 141.8 and i like NYX retest 72
Another interesting day on the street. Just watching the asian markets and they are calling it black firday!! China may melt down over the weekend then next week may make this week look tame.
Watch NTRI
IF IT STAYS ABOVE 56.80 & tradesto the uptick over the first 15 minutes get in going to 61-62 range.
Also if market pulls TASR to 12.50 -13 range get n.
everyone taking the day off?
YAHOOOOOO!!
AWESOME!!
Come to daddy, Dow 12900!!
I wish RIMM would go up at the rate at which it is going down.
Sold 1 call at lose.
Holding on to the other call.
Since RIMM has high premium is it worth holding? Or make a bull spread? or Straddle?
You folks had a great chance to get those NVDA puts today for much cheaper price than yesterday. Now that the stock has gone up alot today, buying the aug. 45 puts is best, instead of the aug 40.
BIG SELLOFF COMIN NEXT WEEK is my opinion.
BE PREPARED.
let me take back that last comment. don't want to ruin your (and mine) weekend.
Good luck and see ya monday
getting bopped yet again today. about as despondent as I've ever been right now. seriously doubt I'll have the energy/inclination to get to work next week. I'll try but I don't know --- haven't missed a week in 2 1/2 years not sure where the energy will come from. I'll try but right now I wouldn't count on getting anything done. have a good day all, just really heavy losses for me last 6 sessions and I'm tired. shoulda listened to Gosu and West.
OK here is a quiz:
I have a big global stock mutual fund that I do not want to sell, but I want to hedge it.
It performs like EFA, a global ETF, so I was thinking to short EFA to hedge any drop in the mutual fund.
Comments appreciated. Thanks
Buying MSTR aug 70 call, 6.50/6.70 MSTR one support 76 MSTR at 75.6 , plus rsi 9 breaks the record for lowest rsi of the year...i expect a 3 to 10% bounce from this price, eps 07/08, 4.97/6.17, its that 33% growth in earnings that keep MSTR down long...eps trend lowere 16%, and now the stock is down 43% from its last high..so 75 seems really overbought..
zee
some stuff goes up in the downturn, and MSTR at 75 too good to pass up
Hedge against a long ETF:
Buy:
DXD
MZZ
SDS
QID
massive drop next week? just like we had that rally you were looking for from spy 154??? lol. newbies
HUGE RALLY COMING NEXT WEEK in MY opinion...........
traders are realizing how oversold we are. don't expect a crash. it's not october yet.
Beanie why are we crashing in Oct?
October 1987 - BIG HUGE CRASH
October 1997 - BIG HUGE CRASH/CORRECTION
October 2007 - ??????
A few weeks ago gosu kept buying the QQQQ everytime it dipped below a certain price, well it looks like SPY , everytime it gets to 146 i should buy it...
MSTR gaps up to $80 on MONday, i think...the earnings were slightly less than jn06 so 75 should hold, its at 73.5 / 74.5
Adami is such a psycho. Out of nowhere last nite he recommends his viewers to buy NVDA. (Maybe he reads this blog? lol)
No matter, it only gives us better entry. He'll have his day because a knockout punch is comin is what i think. NVDA is overbought.
Beanie,
Are solars BUY here and these market conditions?
zstock,
not sure what youre talking about. MSTR already announced earnings this morning.
anon,
solars haven't bottomed just yet but you can limp in some, especially YGE.
It's worth buying some solar now because most are actually near their 50dayMA. That's a technical bottom. Assuming the market doesn't get hit much further, you can say they have bottomed.
Make sure you own at least some YGE.
I like SPWR, STP and FSLR the most. But YGE is cheap.
Come to daddy DOW 12900.
Daddy loves you.
OILS ARE DONE? Time to move on.
Sell oils is what i highly recommend, and i'm
glad FastMoney agrees. Exxon Mobil (XOM) got
slapped with an ugly stick today as their
production is down. Not only that, COP's
production is also down, as well as APA 's.
FastMoney recommends sell. These names are too
overbought. I go even further than FastMoney.
I feel highly negative about oils and i believe
they are essentially done and likely headed for
a multi-year secular bear market. I know that
many will not agree, but you know as they say,
"Everything always looks peachy at the top."
And indeed, i believe oils have topped out. I
don't favor natural catastrophies but i feel
they are totally UNAVOIDABLE at this point
because of global warming which will have a
devastating impact on the Earth's ecosystems and
its habitats. Once catastrophy strikes and
strikes hard, many people will likely blame the
oil industry for the mess. As such, they will
pressure their politicians to make drastic
changes in favor of alternative energy; hence,
the beginnings of a humongous bull market for
alternative energy (i.e. solar). Solar cell
technology, by the way, is gettin very close to
achieving grid parity.
Beanie,
Still letting gosu ruin your blog with his childish, moronic posts I see. Too bad, you had a good thing going here. but hey you can't control all the idiots. He's just mad cause I called him out on his lame picks.
Sold out my S&P calls for a small loss this AM and Thought I'd hold the DOW calls but the pain got too much and sold them into a loss as well. All said cost me @ 8%. Oh well, thats the fee of playing.
FXY showing "inside day" on the candles today. Tighten stops here.
Good luck all.
catcher
A lot of my office colleagues are finally panicking and putting in their mutual funds sell orders.
"Should I sell everything"? is what everybody is asking.
This comment has been removed by the author.
Beanie,
what do you think about HOKU now? It breatouts at close. Do you think it has leg uptrend? I read your blog every day and I think your are good. Thank you.
CATCHERNTHERYE said...
Bought calls on the dow and S&P at end of day.
Thu Jul 26, 06:59:00 PM EDT
BOHOOO!! BOHOO!! WAAAA!!
I am wiped out!!
I am done trading. Adios!!
S&P dropped 20 points between 4pm and 4:15pm.
At least I post what I think.before the move.
Bought calls on the dow and S&P at end of day.
-Catcher
Thu Jul 26, 06:59:00 PM EDT
What a moron!! Catcher the moron tells us before he loses everything.
HAHAHAHA, LOL, ROFLMAO!!!
- Mat
On Monday the DJIA hit a record high while declining stocks overwhelmed advancing stocks by a 2 to 1 margin. This divergence has never occured in 75 year of market history!
Jim Stack (a very smart man) has moved to a full bear market defensive mode and is calling for a 20 to 25% correction.
My analysis jives with his.
West
so in past week we've had posts saying 550 more Dow down points, 1000 more Dow down points and now 20%-25% correction. alright, I'm officially done reading this board for awhile. give me a break, I'm tired of these grand crap cycles and calls for 25% corrections. I'm losing my ass and honestly don't even want to read this forum anymore.
West, please start your own site and predict away if you like. please maybe one post a day max about that stuff here, but that's about all I can handle. Please pull back from this stuff, I'm tired of it. it does no one any good for random 25% down posts on a saturday afternoon.
If that is what you're into, there is plenty of space on the web for that but not here. not when I put tons of hours on this site. this will not turn into a 'sky is falling' board. it won't. If you start a site, please feel free to post a link here so that others can check it out, but I'm not into that stuff and after the week I've had, my patience with it is fried. please take it someplace else. i welcome anon comments, but the 20%-25% correction posts on a saturday have to go. c'mon!
Dow 12900 is it guys. I know nothing about 20-25% correction
Beanie,
By fastmoney u mean the program on TV? or what, though I know about Madmoney. Plz comment.
TOO BAD BILL LEFT
i probably have the bottom of IWM figured out
0.50 fib = 75.6,
downside is fib 61.0 at 73.3..might test that (doubtful)
IWM BOTTOM = MARKET BOTTOM
2 plus 2 = 4 ///yeah...
zee
More likely than not, we should get a bounce next week. A selloff this fast and furious may actually be a good thing rather than drawn out type of corrections. I think we are close to being done with the correction and then we rally into year end (after some backing and filling). Corporate earnings are still very strong and the economy is in good hands.
I say you folks should get ready to buy on Monday or Tuesday, because the bounce will be just as fast and furious.
Some idiots are out there calling for the end of the bull market and a secular bear market has begun. Alrighty. Remember that we rallied the last four years amid a Wall of Worry. There was never any real euphoria as we head higher. In fact, many people i know are still not in the market (after taking a beating in 2000). It's when they start to get back in is when i start to get a bit cautious.
The next 3 months will be volatile because of the October jitters. 20 years ago in Oct 1987, the market crashed hard in that fateful day and wiped out many margined accounts. This year particularly, that crash will remain on many traders' minds as we head into October. Because of this fast and deep correction we are getting right now, i get less and less worried about a Crash in October.
So an October crash prediction is more superstition than any technicals right? I am sure if we keep correcting into the next week, an October crash seems less likely?
Cramer recommended technogy in general, with its bullish favorable seasonality at this time of year, (his 'seasonal tech thesis'), and ADBE specifically, as a Buy Friday evening on Mad Money.
Stock is sitting on solid support, short-term oversold and ready for at least a good bounce.
Mad Money Recap
Cramer's 'Mad Money' Recap: Antidotes to a Selloff
7/27/2007 7:27 PM EDT
.......Cramer said he thinks Adobe (ADBE) is a buy. He believes that Adobe's third and fourth quarters should be the first to benefit from the company's new Creative Suite 3, the "best software" for publishing.
Cramer said he likes Adobe more than Microsoft (MSFT) and Oracle (ORCL).
Adobe, he said, "fits perfectly" with his seasonal tech thesis, and its Creative Suite 3 software should take it higher.
'Tis the Season':
Tech has seasonal strength and is more immune to subprime than any group he follows, Cramer said, other than food and drugs.
Tech does not need to borrow money, he said. The only reason it was down Thursday and today is because the market was in "a pure panic mode." He said that tech is one of few sectors money will be pouring into, as people migrate out of the financials.
http://www.thestreet.com/pf/funds/madmon...
Last Update: Fri. Jul. 27 2007 | 3:40 PM
"It's time to buy tech, and Mad Money host Jim Cramer takes a look at Adobe."
Video Clip:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=443296141#
ADBE is a slow slow turtle slow mover.
I say stick with BIDU.
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