Is the bull market done?
Even though i was very negative on tech after GOOG's disappointing earning, all may not be lost. Because we are still in a very bullish environment (climbing thru a constant Wall of Worries) selloffs are usually deep like the one we had on friday. It is meant to work off a short term overbought condition. The indexes are still in an uptrend and hasn't broken, so we have to respect that. Short term, i think the markets will go generally down most of next week.
GOOG may turn out to be a great buy on friday in the low 500. And it most likely is. It will trade sideways for awhile and let AAPL (assuming they impress next week) step up as General to lead the techs. Other techs that could follow are RIMM, AMZN (assuming they don't get iced on earnings), BIDU (same assumption), SNDK, GRMN, KLA, ORCL, CSCO.
I would not dispose of those sept RIMM. I still like it alot. Imo, there is no way it won't have a pre or post split rally.
AAPL is a monster. We complained and complained when it was at $60. Just a little bit of patience does a wallet good.
I still think we will end with a great year in 2007, a presidential cycle. And you know that whatever GW Bush wants, he gets. Who wants to bet that he doesn't want the market to end on a bang, going into the 2008 election?
GOOG may turn out to be a great buy on friday in the low 500. And it most likely is. It will trade sideways for awhile and let AAPL (assuming they impress next week) step up as General to lead the techs. Other techs that could follow are RIMM, AMZN (assuming they don't get iced on earnings), BIDU (same assumption), SNDK, GRMN, KLA, ORCL, CSCO.
I would not dispose of those sept RIMM. I still like it alot. Imo, there is no way it won't have a pre or post split rally.
AAPL is a monster. We complained and complained when it was at $60. Just a little bit of patience does a wallet good.
I still think we will end with a great year in 2007, a presidential cycle. And you know that whatever GW Bush wants, he gets. Who wants to bet that he doesn't want the market to end on a bang, going into the 2008 election?
posted by beanie11111 | 3:39 AM
39 Comments:
i own some aug 160 calls on aapl. if aapl continues its move up, say into the low 150's in the week after earnings, when is the best time to cash out before time decay starts to bring the price down. when does holding for 160 to hit cost or make me money? i'd appreciate any comments/advice here as i'm relatively new to options and don't have much experience trading in this scenario.
BTRADER, thanks for the GSB, I like the chart, looks like the buyers are coming to this stock as well. I'm gonna check the charts on it this weekend and find a good entry point for it. Seems like since the move to the AMEX, buyers are after this thing heavy.
thanks again
catcher
if you think AAPL will move 8%, that�s $11, then my put/call spread strategy will work...i think it�s 50/50, so I�m not going to try AAPL spread...
zee
anon./anon / need your initials,,10:22AM..aapl au 160 call...you had better hope aapl is up $1.00 on Monday or 160 call..will lose $20 or $30 in value due to one week less on time factor...so as long as the call stays above $3.00 / 3.60, you should be fine...
SWC plummetted 9% on Friday. This is an excellent entry for people who wants to ride the palladium bull. You need to know this metal! Just as copper bought 20 folds return in PCU 4 years, palladium bull will give SWC a 20 folds return in 4 years. Click on my name and go to my new blog to read about it. Better yet visit stockology.blogspot.com
PT.. i see FCSX under 20 day.... two days in a row and im in...that’s my new buy signal, for high flying stocks....next support = 50 day...appx $51 (doubtful)
i think FCSX = ICE only it’s grains, ethanol...
zee
anon,
buying one sided options into earnings is always a gamble. If AAPL doesn't move up big after earnings, your call options will likely get a decent haircut or stagnate (even if the stock moves up 3 bucks). The reason is that everybody else is buying doing the same thing as you, thereby jacking up the call option prices in anticipation of a big rise. No big rise - options sellers win.
Hey, if the call options you bought rises in value BEFORE earnings, i'd take the money and run.
thanks z, i'm up 60% at the moment on the aug 160 and I'm just trying to figure out what to do if aapl goes on a rimm like run after earnings. how long can or should i hold if that happens, if it makes a slow but steady move torwards 160 by expiration?
thanks beanie. i anticipate a big move up into wed so maybe i'll take half off the table. thus far i've been trading options with at least a month to go if not more before expiration so time hasn't been much of a factor. i'm not clear on what my trading strategy should be when trading options with less than a month to live.
zstock
FCSX
Are you saying FCSX will be touching the 50MA?
I am loaded on the 60$ AUgust calls..and losing here...
would u bail?
Beanie,
I'd like to hear your opinion on my AAPL holdings: Been buying on margins and have accumulated shares @ 116 now up $2800.00 + gain. I'd like to sell it but I have a feeling I am selling too soon again like my previous holdings of appl and rvbd.
Beanie,
Do you recommend buying GRMN on dips or at current price? The GRMN stock has been stagnant of late.
sgv,
if you bought AAPL at 116, by all means, hold the position thru earnings. 'cause i would. No way AAPL could drop 30 bucks even if earnings misses. You're safe.
Beanie (or anybody who have the insights), would you please comment on WFR?
Do you believe WFR would worth a play on the long side coming into the earning date? Thanks!
SGV,
If you have that much profit and want to hold at least buy some puts to help ease the down side if there is some... Lets you sleep better...
WHB
joseph,
On the WFR earings play... There is a lot of supply between 61.00 and 64.00 and a gap at 62.00.. The most prudent play would be a deep in the money call if you think there might be some upside before earnings... They disappointed last quarter and got a 7.00 haircut so you might want to exit most of position before earnings...
WHB
CLRO.ob should double in a month because:
1. Nasdaq listing to be announced soon.
2. Company is buying back stock.
3. 22 mil cash, no debt, and 64 mil market cap.
4. Great products and improving revenues and gross margins.
5. Q4 (Q ending June 2007) will be released last week of July.
6. Insiders are buying.
Good luck.
M
PT there are so many bells and whistles ( ma lines on FCSX) SMA 50 = 51.83..that’s a 100 to 1 ( my favor) entry price, but i don’t think it goes that low... 57.4 current price is an 11% pullback...that’s an xlnt support price...
Meanwhile WSO is a safe investment at $49...details and chart..on blog and
X execute strangle on Monday ( reports Tues) is a no brainer strangle ( call/puts) play, that works ...because even if X is down, it comes right back up...details on blog...
zee
WHB,
Thanks for your help. I shall consider your suggestion. Or maybe it's time to take some money off to ease my worry, this game is never easy.
Beanie,
After losing all my profit on DNDN, I never felt safe anymore. Of course AAPL IS safer bet than Dendreon. But remember I bought all my aapl shares on margins. But if you think it's that safe, maybe I am worrying too much. Thanks a lot.
Anyone buying or holding BRLC? Started buying some 2 months ago, now I am up 20% but the shorties are beating it down all the time. Any thoughts guys?
The title of this blog suggests....DEC 2007 will be Lower than right now...and that is wrong... The market should blast thru 15,000 by dec 2007
Q3... s and p estimates are 6% better and Q4 are expected to come in 12% better...which = 18%... market has a chance of going 9% to 18% higher, but there will be possible AUG pullback and OCT pullback...and these Pullbacks could be HUGE...which woould make the upside even huge-r...( more Huge)
and on another note...
i think bear markets don�t start until 6 month�s after the start of lowering interes rates....
Zstock,
No, nobody said dec 2007 will be lower than right now. In fact, i expect it to be higher. There may be a short term correction but by no means is the "bull market" in that true sense of the word is done. No way, no how! To reduce confusion, i should have used the word "correction" instead, as i was implying a short term market correction led by technology.
GOOG and INTC was a mess. Maybe Wallstreet will forgive them this time, and we escape the correction. We might as long as AAPL impresses.
we probably get a pullback in August...2nd day or 2nd week
Sometimes i can interpret the info on this site spot on
http://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/
IT says as of midnight...PST
Dow futures up 22..
look for stocks lower at opening ,but higher at finish...plus it’s merger Monday..
midnight report...
zee
thestreet.com pumpin tech as the place to be this morning. So no more shorting tech for now.
good luck
beanie11111 said...
Zstock,
No, nobody said dec 2007 will be lower than right now. In fact, i expect it to be higher.
I totally agree! I'm sure all the intelligent people here knew exactly what you meant.
AAPL:
To sell or not to sell?
I chime in with my ridiculous trend theory: http://stockpickr.com/members/view/answers/8018/?msg=1
any predictions for ISRG close today?
AMGN upgraded. Going higher.
AMZN earnings is tomorrow after the bell. Do you got guts to buy?
AAPL is still and iffy for me into earnings.
SPWR doing very well. Near 52weekhighs.
oh man, this paint drying business is killin me! lol
See ya tomorrow.
http://stockcharts.com/charts/candleglance.php?EOG,NFX,EP,FST,XTO,BRG,REP,COG,CHK,UNG|B|B14
Natural gas stocks down...and i think more pain tomorrow..UNG collapsed, today..
CME at the 20 day reports tomorrow, 8am i have no idea which way it�s going , i wonder what the extra billion it paid for BOT .. does
Is HOKU a buy now for tomorrow ER?
I am buying the GS aug 110 call at 4.70 / 4.90 two days ago this thing was in the 900’s...and i can’t stand the suspense, and its just below the 200 day..and it hit my $21 / 22 price channel target...at 104...AND RSI 31..if it were correcting, i’d see rsi 25 or 15..so far it’s just normal pullback..also if ( big if) CME can go to $600 tomorrow morning this should help GS and XBD
And congrats to all who bought my JBX 70 calls ...up $200 today...double up...
MGM testing HUGE 30/50 signal at 80.9...i see 79 and im in...or buy now..
JULY 27 FRI GDP report at 3.5%... so on thurs buy anything....i see 4 out of 5 stocks going up on those kind of numbers...
Earnings season is a wash....there are not enough upside surprises to push SPY to 156 and there’s not enough earnings misses to pullback..look for sideways or climbing wall of worry trading until AUG...
zee
TXN getting slammed in after hours...damage is not spreading to other tech stocks...HAL,NE,BHI,GSF,DO down 4% ++...getting slammed in after hours ....might be bad for OIH, XLE, and SPY, tomorrow.....AXP down 2%....shoot...PPH down 1.7% and i don’t know why...something big in pharma...is down, damage seems localized to those particular sectors...everything else is up or relatively unchanged
NTRI tomorrow earnings
seemed to hold the 50MA perfectly..
will it touch 200 MA
or explode higher?
hello beanie, what do you think about bidu at 180, buy? like it at 200, gotta love it 180.
Playing MICC, WFR, FFIV, AAPL, CRDN, and NETL for the coming days earnings--LOVE THE Earnings Game !!!!
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