AMZN delivers!!
AMZN currently trades @ 78
This stock is way oversold from 89. It offers really good entry about here.
AMZN yesterday announced they are getting into the grocery business where they deliver the products to your doorstep. It's an absolutely great idea and also perfect timing for Amazon. I think they will succeed, unlike Webvan.com that didn't have the money nor the infrastructure to make it happen.
I believe this stock is headed to over 100. I also believe this is the next Walmart.
Longer term investment.
This stock is way oversold from 89. It offers really good entry about here.
AMZN yesterday announced they are getting into the grocery business where they deliver the products to your doorstep. It's an absolutely great idea and also perfect timing for Amazon. I think they will succeed, unlike Webvan.com that didn't have the money nor the infrastructure to make it happen.
I believe this stock is headed to over 100. I also believe this is the next Walmart.
Longer term investment.
posted by beanie11111 | 9:37 AM
93 Comments:
Beanie,
You should consider AMZN's P/E before reconmanding it. It was overvalued before even dropping $10, it's still overvalued. In correction all this kind of stocks will be repriced. If you enter now, you will lose your shirt
The brokers are in absolute toilet. Lehman (LEH) down unbelievable 7%. Just unbelievable.
They are just taking the market down with them
I got some LM yesterday, and I'm up on it.
Buy Baltimore, short NY?
__________________
Beanz... AMZN is getting into another low margin business, one they know zip about, where they will compete with Wal-Mart not to mention other large grocers, and where they will have to deal with fuel costs?
And you want me to do what?
BTW -- thanks Zee, for making me look at LM.
Beanie,
Grocery delivery was tried by meny companies in 90's but all failed. AMZN just do a trail this time in Seattle area. Just trail to see if it works, not for sure it will work.
nancy harris,
Not true. FreshDirect delivers groceries to people's doors in the NY metropolitan area. Obviously they're making money or else they wouldn't be doing it.
AMZN going into the grocery business is the next logical step for the company. Imagine that, if i'm a shopper of their groceries there's a really good chance i'll pretty much buy everything else from them.
As long as they can make the grocery business profitable, then it's all worth it. They get to get the Amazon brand out there.
I'd give Jeff Bezos the Ceo of the Year for thinking this far.
You guys need to be in GRMN! I kid you not.
Or NVT.
Or TRMB.
But GRMN is the best.
Truth be told, i like GRMN alot more than AMZN. But i really like both.
Beanz:
FreshDirect delivers groceries to people's doors in the NY metropolitan area. Obviously they're making money or else they wouldn't be doing it.
Amazon has never made "making money" a top priority in entering businesses, in my recollection.
This will not end prettily.
I liked GRMN too, back at $54, when I got some for the IRA.
You want a similar situation now?
WFMI. There's a grocery bidness with margins for ya.
Can you envision the vision of what AMZN is trying to do?
GRMN gonna cut thru 100 like hot knife on butter!
Now if the indexes close positive, that would be quite a feat.
RIMM continues higher. The split is coming sometime this month. It's why the stock is running.
I know alot of people just really hate AMZN and calling it expensive. The fact is, stock has been expensive all it's life. That didn't stop the business from growing, or the stock price from expanding. MSFT was expensive all its life until only recently.
That was a really nice call on LVS, whoever.
GSB touched and is holding it's trendline nicely.
cmon market....close flat for the day
I hope market rallies and not sinks on BSC conference call
buyers into the close on the financials is my opinion
Ma 133 =3 month support, target met...and MA went up $38 once / one month period. , and now today is down $38 in a month period , downside test 200 at 120 ( doubtful) or gap test 125 ( doubtful)
WHAT A TURN AROUND IN BEAR STEARNS!!
107 TO 115 IN 3 HOURS!!!
unreal action on brokers
what a head fake
TSO ( gasoline) keeps bouncing off 45.80. aug 45 call at 2.65, looks good 45.8 = 200ma, holding there 4 days now...aug 42.5 call looks good too...
EPS trend ON FIRE up 15% past 4 months
eps april 07/08 6.12/4.70
aug eps estimate 7.05/5.86
So, why is LEH down 8%?
holy cow
cramer is going nuts on street signs
go cramer!
save the longs!
The way brokers are going, looks like one of them will go to ZERO!!
HEHEHEHEEE...
At the risk of showing what an old f**t I am, it used to be that investors never paid more than book value for a broker. Earnings, as we are seeing, are too volatile.
Book Value for BSC is 89.46 and for LEH 37.79...seems like reasonable targets if this continues.
John B
AZO at 123 im in again, every three months, im in at 123...
ESI AT 103 again and again and again...5 times last 4 days ..
IYE really good support at 116.5..= .2 month low...
MHK just stays at 88.05 , even with the SPY crashing 100...last half hour...+ 86.4 = 86.4=200ma
Anyone like LEAP...very bullish hollow red hammer at 83..
When MA takes off on MONDAY (probably) and carries the brokers with them + merger Monday, i think XBD stocks up 3% i think...
Thanks John. I will wait for them to get there.
DOW 12900!!!
I like AMZN...they have to put up with EBAY culture now that the two have merged...so its going to be nothing but the bottom line for the rest of AMZN’s days...they merged in this way...WHEN NFLX went IPO, NFLX needed 50 warehouses, to cut down on shipping costs....When “power sellers” on EBAY, reached NFLX saturation point, they needed 50 warehouses, to cut down on shipping costs....so AMZN had the warehouses and EBAY had the people (power sellers) ...These aren’t just ordinary people...these are the multi million dollar/ year , power sellers on EBAY...
DOWN DOWN DOWN DOWN!!
OH DOW
DOWN DOWN DOWN DOWN DOWN!!
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=452808336&play=1
Cramer just melted down. I hear fear and panic behind the mask of anger.
Fixed-income shit hitting the fans?
The interesting thing is that while the market is dropping like crazy, the brokers stocks has stopped dropping.
I'm startin to wonder if Cramer just created the ultimate bottom with his crying on national tv.
Setting up a black monday bottom?
I just woke up - anyone still in JSDA? Ouch
That was the funniest Cramer I have ever seen. Thanks for the link.
beanie11111 said...
I'm startin to wonder if Cramer just created the ultimate bottom with his crying on national tv.
We still have to see Dow 12900.
DOW 12900 - Here it comes...
my god, cramer has lost his mind.
i wish i had one of those "cash out all positions" buttons....
im in mastercard EOD at 130.3 average
hoping for a nice recovery to high 130s early next week
Cramer's performance was just a little irresponsible. You do not talk about a depression on national television because of a problem in the financial system.
No wonder the market went down 150 points after that
John B
John,
it will probably get there anyways had he not said anything. He just helped quicken the pace though. lol
I hope we crash this year and just get the whole thing over with.
If Benanke doesn't cut rates next week, YOU NEED TO GET RID OF ALL STOCKS and go short!!!!
Bernanke cannot lower rates because the dollar will crash. The dollar will absolutely go down in the gutter and inflation will just be outright ugly. Already food and gas prices are obscene. Have you seen the milk prices recently??
Dow at 13181
down -281 points today.
-------
One more day=12900
SWEEET!!!
Gosu, do you think twelve-9 will be the bottom or just a good place to start buying? Thanks.
12900 - Good place to start buying.
Absolute bottom on - September 30, 2007.
The way market is acting is so random that I think only day traders may be making any money. Else it would be good to stay in cash. Will keep eye on solars and offcourse beanie recommendations.
Looks like Gosu will be right about his 12900 prediction. I'm man enough to admit when I'm wrong. I've taken a beating in my call options. But don't worry about me. I just swam my daily 46 laps and I feel alot better now. Great stress reliever for sure.
These past two weeks have eaten back into 1/2 of my June's gains...that doesn't sound bad. however as of july 20 or so I was working on best month in years trading wise and those gains are gone as well as 1/2 of june's...another leg down will undoubtedly start eating into the big April. I'd like to avoid that. By far worst period here I've ever had recently.
This market is really getting more frightening by the day. All the bulls are finally turning into bears. If what Cramer is saying is true, we could get the worst case scenerio where the USA market can get a 20% haircut by October.
I would like to make a point on whether the FED can reduce rates or not. A lot of the discussion on this board and on others is that the FED cannot reduce rates because of the dollar. NOTHING is further from the truth.
It is the FED's responsibility to insure that the domestic economy is on a non-inflationary path. That is there job. They are not the managers of the foreign exchange rates of the dollar. That is the responsibility of the Treasury.
Now the Treasury and by extension the administration have shown a complete lack of interest in defending the dollar. However, that is probably coming to a short term turn around. I think a solution is going to be forced upon the administration and I believe that was th reason for Paulson's trip to China.
If the melt down continues, I fully expect the FED to cut rates, probably dramatically. However, to support the dollar, I would not be surprised to see the US arrange a substantial bond issue denominated in Euro's and use the proceeds to acquire dollars.
Of course, then the foreign exchange traders would be complaining about how much they lost. Regardless, I think some real draconian measures will be taken and probably soon. A borrowing in Euro's is probably the least painful for the US citizens, so I probably favor that.
Just a point for discussion.
John B
Another comment about Sam Molinaro's, CFO of Bear Sterns, comment that this is the worst bond market he has faced in 22 years. The facts just do not support his statement.
There have been 3 significant bear markets in the ten year sector of the market since 1984. The first was from March of 87 to October 87 when the yield of the ten year went from 7.18% to 10.11%, causing a decline in value of 18%.
From Oct 93 to Nov 94, the yield of the 10 year went from 5.24% to 8.00% again causing a loss of 18%. Between Jan 99 and Jan 2000, the ten year yield went from 4.67% to 6.77% for a loss of 14%.
Between March of 2007 and June 2007, yields went from 4.53% to 5.22% causing a 5% loss.
This recent rise in rates isn't even a blip compared to other time frames.
By the way, the yield of Baa corporates has averaged 132% of the yield of the 10 year T Notes since 1980. Currently that number is 135%, hardly a cause for alarm.
It is starting to sound to me like some one was caught off sides in the market and is now complaining. Maybe what the stockholders ought to demand is repayment of bonuses. It is starting to appear that the bonuses were derived from a business model that was not sound.
My observation.
John B
West,
It looks like you were right. The Doomed House pattern is near complete. Market set up for an outright crash.
I would encourage people to look at the period of april 1998 - november 1998 for what can happen during a liquidity/financial crisis. Remember the BX and FIG aren't stupid for getting a deal done. Remember back when MVC did a deal in june of 2000, they found it a prudent time to sell shares too. It proved to be a VERY GOOD IDEA!
I just don't get you guys. Yes this is mostly a long term board since its dedicated to stocks---thats obvious. But some of us have made serious cash.
We could see a very ugly period for the US economy and banks in general---reasons I've said to sit out the market until Labor Day to let this work its way out.
Its not fed responsibility to worry about the dollar, but it is their foremost responsibility to worry about Inflation.
Lower dollar will result in skyrocketing food and energy prices and kill the economy. Plus, reducing rates will do nothing to stimulate housing. The housing recession is not because of interest rates. it is because of excessive supply.
The problem is that the appraisals are coming out too low. These people cannot just refinance no matter the interest rate. The rising house prices were being were used as ATMs for consumer spending. With housing in the toilet, no more cash outs, no matter what the interest rate is.
The question for you guys is, how low can the market go within the next 2-3 months and still end up with Dow 14500-15000 by year end?
Market bottom on September 30, 2007.
One area I will continue to concentrate on are the infrastructure companys. But I expect MDR could pull back to $60s and FWLT to upper upper $70s.
2 drivers:
1. World growth
2. Presidential Election. With the bridge tragedy I believe we'll have a new inward focus on our own aging infrastructure vs rebuilding Iraq. I'm sure candidates are drafting their own "Federal Aid Highway Act of 1956" to use as their platform. Atlanta has serious sewer problems and we're considered a "new" city---just think what needs to be replaced in the older municipals.
Gosu, if the market bottoms on 9/30 then it is best to wait till then to buy not at 12-9 right? Or are you referring to something else? Thanks.
Interesting read by Jim Cramer
http://www.thestreet.com/pf/markets/activetraderupdate/10372191.html
Likely we're gonna CRASH by mid october, but
meanwhile....
Beanie's Guru Contrarian Trend Theory says there
should
be at least a short term rally in the financials since
both Madmoney and fastmoney were very negative on this
sector just last Friday.
However, this theory may not apply in sheer panic
situations.
But if the market keeps going lower after Ben speaks,
the impending crash is confirmed. That would be time
to sell everything and/or buy Oct SPY puts.
We'll see what happens.
Good luck.
beanie....what are your short term targets on GS, BSC, MER, LEH, MS if we get this short term financial rally?
how much % up from Friday's close?
my take on the market:
everyone feels that this is a correction and pullbacks need to be bought...i dont belong to that camp. for me cash preservation overrides everything and i aint going in until i am sure that this credit crucnh sell off is nothing more that just another excuse for sell off. i dont know where the bottom is and i dont want to predict it. no one talks about the recent weakness in energy stocks. i think if these names roll over we have a serious problem and from the recent price action they are showing signs of topping.
i will be more comfortable buying at higher prices if the market turns up as i feel they are going higher still if the market recovers. staying out of small/micro/financials/homebuilders/debt laden companies/US economy centric names.
will stay out until i am convinced it is okay to get in again. btw guys, I think IBD's big picture column is fantastic. the past 2 years I have been in the market, the diagnosis of that column has been spot on...even with this current sell off, the big picture column had the market outlook as "under pressure" two weeks back before the real selling came hitting. the beauty of that column is that it is quite uncomplicated and is based on facts (no CNBC like bs where they put 2 talking heads with extreme opinions next to each other and who try to confuse the heck out of u). The big picture column has worked for me in the past so thought i will mention it...
sorry for all of u who losing $$$..i know it hurts, have been there...
Beanie, keep on the awesome job. this forum is great and request all of you to grow up. Beanie is too valuable for all of us to spend his time on unnecessary aggravation or policing us. we should all be thankful and do our little bit to not to make his life difficult. i think he deserves it :)
Beanie, on catcher's note, who are you??? :) A little background on yourself perhaps? I enjoy reading this too and occasionally chiming in. Would be nice to know a bit about you too.
One question for all you experts, if you are in the market for long term. Should you exit all your positions now? Or exit all your positions after a short rally? And then get back in after the crash? Or is it possible to hold through it all since we will end up higher at the end? Or is it even a possibility that we will never end up higher within this year?
Market bottom somewhere around September 30, 2007.
What's the bottom?
weekends are terrible
im so pumped up to trade
tuesday will be record volume....market will break record volume by 15%
It's refreshing to see a lively discussion.
Jet: If there is any expert here, then you got it cheap. Nobody knows what's going to happen. Everything here is prognostication and opinions on whatever we can digest from any business publications and websites.
On your question- I am pondering the same thing: should I get out now and save my money for better trading days or stay and play the volatility game. Not so easy to decide because I got burn quite a few times- and endured the consequence. My advice is know yourself: How much money can you risk and how much "stress" can you
take? Number 1 rule of Trading is-
do not lose money.....Good luck!
despite cramer's crazy rantings during stop trading on friday, a rate cut seems impossible, but did anyone see fast money on friday when in the final trade segment, the other najarian predicted a surprise rate cut on monday? has this ever happened? a rate cut before the meeting? then dylan ratigan asked if he'd like to put money on it, and he said he already did. any thoughts on this?
great analysis people. thanks.
pat,
Yes, surprise cuts has happened before in the past.
Personally, if the Fed doesn't cut rates soon, i believe that Bear Sterns will eventually declare bankruptcy. I think it's the next Enron.
tv107,
oh man, if the fed doesn't do something soon, the brokers are gonna spiral downhill so fast you wouldn't believe it. They will all get at least a 50% haircut from their highs. Frankly, i think Bear Sterns will end up declaring bankruptcy as a result of all the mortgage backed securities they're involved with. On the conference, the ceo just sneaked out of the room before anyone had a chance to ask him any questions. He left his henchmen behind to do all the talking. Very strange and very foreboding. THE NEXT ENRON is what i think.
The fed has got to do something soon. Real soon.
tv107,
at this point, i would not even touch the brokers even if they rally.
They are no buys until Ben says something really positive, and hints or actually does the rate cut next week.
You buy the brokers, you're going against the likes of Jim Rogers. YOU WILL BE TOTALLY ANNIHILATED.
One more thing:
Bear Stearns will not declare bankruptcy.
When the .com bubble busted - amazon, ebay, yahoo survived. The survival of the fittest.
When the mortgage bubble bursts - the best of the breed - Countrywide, Bear Stearns will survive.
American home mortgage, novastar, new century etc. are like the etoys.com
I don't know if Bear will declare bankruptcy or not...my guess is that it will muddle through. I just don't like the numbers.
As of 11/30/06 BSC had stockholder's equity of $12 billion and interest sensitive assets of $300 billion. We already know that the value of the assets has declined and the spread between investment grade assets and CDO's CMO's etc. has widened, thanks to Molinaro.
Assume the hedges Bear had in place were perfect, you still have at least a 1 to 2% slippage.
Hummm...1% slippage on $300 bil in assets wipes out 25% of Bear's equity.
I think I'll wait for the dust to settle.
John B
i just feel purely from a daytrading perspective that the brokers may rally on monday and tuesday 4-6% before the fed decision (like BSC did before CC). after that, who knows....
i wouldn't touch BSC, but imo LEH of all the brokers has the best % upside in a relief rally.
everyone's saying the dollar will crash if fed lowers rates
i don't follow much forex trading with exception of usd/can but
why has our dollar being crashing over the last 4-5? what has been the underlying reasons?
Agreed. No idea why LEH would go down so much of such a heavy volume.
LEH is ideal for day trading.
the markets peaked 7/19
there was weakness in the financials for a few days before
so they peaked on average (7/16) although most were higher earlier than that in FY07. The tape was showing severe signs of cracking on 7/24, two days before it cracked on 7/26.
since 7/19, SPY is -7.23%, and since 7/16 (in 3 weeks):
MS -16.2%, GS -18.3%, MER -19.5%, BSC -22.8%, and LEH -23.4%.
Right on tv107. Same thing happened a few days before Feb 27 to make me this comment:
gosu said...
All I know is that the Banks and brokerages are down significantly. Citigroup, Merill Lynch, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Lehman Bros, ABN Amro, AMEX are all down on heavy volume.
The stock owners of these entities are the first to know about any upcoming troubles.
Mon Feb 26, 03:01:00 PM EST
Look at their charts from Feb 20 to Feb 26.
Use a tight stop if you buy LEH. It's probably the most leveraged firm on the street.
John B
Hmm...
LEH...most leveraged? Just wondering why no news on any LEH funds blowing up? absolutely no news.
West's posts I find interesting.
This week will prove interesting. Tuesday I believe we'll get some short covering into CSCO Earnings and expectation that the Fed could do a surprise rate cut. I'll be looking to put on a DJX/SDS/QID hedge on any rally. Had some huge DJX Puts near end of day Friday but pulled most off thinking we'd kick higher into close---missed 150 downside.
I like to share a story of expectations---think u guys might find amusing. The smallest account I trade is an account I started this summer for a College student friend who has deadbeat parents. Late May I set up an account for her depositing $5k telling her whatever I made for her could be used for tuition in the fall. Her account hit $15k the other day but a couple trades took it back down under $14K. She immediately called asking me if the market was going to crash since her account took such a "large" hit! I tried to explain to her that an average investor would be happy to make close to 200% return in a couple months. She calmed down but that $1k was a lot of money to her. Now what I learned from this was the fact that people have different expectations, others are seriously risk adverse but bottomline I found out that I better start trading my own accounts similar to hers. LOL!
5K to 15K??? What did you do buddy?
Catcher,
You are exactly right ..trading has changed my perspective on how to value the money. Sometimes it is so hard for me to think about some guys at work who are so upset/angry about missing out on a $10 off sale or forgetting to mail a 25$ mail in rebate coupon. Depending on the day in the market, I may be sitting on a $2K gain/loss thinking what difference the $25 make. Is it just me or a you guys felt the same way?
for full disclosure i am up 165% for the year. How about you guys?
Have a nice rest of the weekend..
RKH almost at the (weekly) 200ma = 135.4, ( or 3% more to drop), might signal a short term bottom to the DOW at 12,700/13,100, and FOMC meeting Tues, so at 11:30 west coast... if market is tanking, Ben said something wrong....
OIH OCT ... low = 133...50/50
My poor little ole TSO calls, i think they are going to eat crow in the morning., (unless market up 200), ..congress just taxed them, and gave the money to Bill GATES (PEIX)...oil gets taxed, alternative gets the money..(buy solar).Democrats overnight legislation passes...and taxes might send crude up to $80 probably...
S&P futures already down 7 points - Almost 1/2 a percent.
First, welcome John... a real nice addition to this board. One quibble with what you said here:
It is starting to sound to me like some one was caught off sides in the market and is now complaining. Maybe what the stockholders ought to demand is repayment of bonuses. It is starting to appear that the bonuses were derived from a business model that was not sound.
Not to be too hackneyed, but that's why they make the big bucks. One year you get a fat bonus, the next, your arse is out on the street, no complaints. Wall Street is just a lot of smart people playing a high risk game, but the layoff cycle is one that would make the most weathered UAW machinist cry.
It's good to save those bonuses for a rainy day because on the Street it's not, "if" but "when" you'll need to spend it on groceries.
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