Today is Fed day.
Best to hold your horses until the last hour, before doing any major buying or shorting. This should be a very volatile day.
posted by beanie11111 | 8:53 AM
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The last few years have been great to me, as i was able to clobber the S&P500 many times in returns. But of course, you can't make a living trading the markets if you don't make great great returns. I'll try to give my readers trades that i think will make them money. However, you need to have money management skills, in order not to lose everything on a greedy or stupid trade. I may or may not already be in the trades i recommend. I may or may not trade the stocks i recommend. Due diligence is required on your part and the usual disclaimer that i am not responsible for your losses always apply. I have no affiliations with any broker/dealer and all posts are for educational purposes only. Remember to 'refresh' the home page and the "Comments" pages frequently in order to receive updated posts. Let's rock!
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79 Comments:
I really want to short KBH, but the technicals are showing a bottom. However, the fundamentals are glim if the fed doesn't lend a hand.
my goodness, WYNN is on fire.
beanie...any opinion on FWLT? ....has earnings tomorrow
Beanie,
Please your suggestion on EBAY - HOLD or SELL today ?
EBAY:
35.50 - next major resistance.
hold or sell until fed is out of the way. i would rebuy above the resistance.
FWLT:
too risky to play earnings in this environment
took out WYNN short overnite....covered right at the bottom before the open for a profit
got lucky
Solars are flyin
Beanie: EBAY: 35.50 - next major resistance.
It is broken! 35.8
When does VMWare go IPO?
Beannie,
solar is flying CSUN is dying. ?
Sorry to see big huge experts like Beanie making absolutely wrong observations:
Sun Aug 05, 03:35:00 AM EDT
beanie11111 said...
tv107,
Frankly, i think Bear Sterns will end up declaring bankruptcy as a result of all the mortgage backed securities they're involved with. On the conference, the ceo just sneaked out of the room before anyone had a chance to ask him any questions. He left his henchmen behind to do all the talking. Very strange and very foreboding. THE NEXT ENRON is what i think.
Sun Aug 05, 03:43:00 AM EDT
gosu said...
One more thing:
Bear Stearns will not declare bankruptcy.
When the .com bubble busted - amazon, ebay, yahoo survived. The survival of the fittest.
When the mortgage bubble bursts - the best of the breed - Countrywide, Bear Stearns will survive.
American home mortgage, novastar, new century etc. are like the etoys.com
Sun Aug 05, 09:38:00 AM EDT
beanie11111 said...
As long as the fed stands pat, BSC is a natural short. Could be the next Enron.
Mon Aug 06, 10:34:00 AM EDT
gosu said...
Bear Stearns is NOT the next Enron. The main difference - Enron was hiding everything. Bear Stearns is taking the initiative in transparency and being open about everything.
Mon Aug 06, 10:42:00 AM EDT
BSC up 6 dollars today.
gosu,
too premature to judge on BSC just yet. I think the fed will say something to halt the crash of financials. But we'll have to see.
financials are being manipulated big time. shaking out the weak shorts.
Once again. The Fed Cannot do anything to influence the financials. They cannot. Its just out of their control. They cannot cut the rates because the dollar will crash and Inflation will be ugly.
The reason why the financials are rallying since yesterday morning is because of this news:
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7b9AC15E8D-DAD3-4A93-8073-90442AD2F8AC%7d&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo
Shares of giant mortgage-buyers Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac jumped Monday after Fannie reportedly asked its federal regulator to increase the amount of mortgages the company may hold in its portfolio. Fannie says the move would provide more liquidity in the mortgage market, the Wall Street Journal reported in its online edition
I disagree Gosu. While I agree that cutting rates would cause inflation to skyrocket clearly an inflationary enviroment is far better than a deflationary one with all the debt out there. Just look at Japan, they cut rates all the way to zero and the economy still contracted because they didn't get ahead of the problem.
A severe credit crunch would be far worse for the dollar than lower rates is what I'm saying.
no matter which way the market moves after FED (which i think is down), i think WYNN is a short into close
I get the feelin that the fed will say something that will make the market happy. Even if it were just lukewarm, i think the market will still rally because we are so oversold.
Point well taken BTrader, but I think the issue here is that no matter what the rates, the house values are declining at a torrid pace. The sheer amount of negative amortization loans out there means that house owners actually owe a lot more than what their house is worth. I dont think that Fed can cut rates in a super inflationary environment when it knows that cutting interest rates will do nothing to help out people who are upside down on their mortgages, which I think is the real problem here.
Man, can't these traders just wait for the fed announcement? C'mon man.
The houses in the Bay Area California seems to be holding well. In fact, many are still going up.
Sacramento is just getting killed.
true, but bay area real estate doesn't mirror the rest of the country.
If people are able to refi into 30 fixed at 5 or 6% then I think we will be able to work off the supply and get the ARM borrowers out of trouble. I don't see how else it can be avoided. Definitely a lesser of two evils situation.
Ohio, Minnesota, Georgia, Florida, Arizona - Home owners are calling Loan officers and straight asking for the foreclosure department.
Buying MSTR sept 70 call 2.15/2.30...at 65.80 ...
target 67 met..at MSTR = 68.0 (sept70 call = 3.05), ($69= 4.25), ($71= 5.25), RSI 8.9,
downside, might go to RSI 5 (doubtful), upside, when MSTR gets going, it really gets going, and EPS 07/08= 4.60/5.83
or p/e=14.3, normally trades with p/e = 22.1..so even at p/e of say 17, MSTR should be at $78....
zee
MRO and BHI calls way way up, from yesterday's buy now suggestion...
5 or 6%...
The problem again is that even though the 10 year yields have declined almost 0.5%, the mortgage rates have actually risen Even with perfect credit, the jumbo loans are now at 8%. All in the name of "repricing of risk".
Plus it is nearly impossible now to do 100% financing, stated income, no doc programs that had fueled the credit and housing boom of the past. So, no matter if Fed cuts or not, the housing mess will not have a solution in Fed.
AAPL announcing new products as we speak...
I think KBH can be shorted some at this point, if ya dare.
Do you guys see alot of sales or foreclosure signs in your area? Just curious. I hardly see any at where i live.
The solars are finally responding to the House bill.
EMC:
i think the aug. 19 calls @ .30 or below is a decent buy on next week's VMWare ipo (aug 14th).
Aug 18 calls are definately safer.
covered wynn below 121....
CMG has to tank
The not so good thing about those EMC aug calls is that somebody(s) bought a huge number of aug 18 puts today .
i live in the bay area on the peninsula. for sale signs are really starting to pop up in the condo complexes and prices are less than they were a year ago. when a housing market goes, it starts with the condos. i was down in san jose a week ago and was blown away at all the for sale signs in front of fairly new complexes (2 years old) with more units in the process of being built (by centex).
I live in Indiana. There are a lot of for sale signs in my area. Not many forclosed signs, I think I've seen one or two. What is most striking is the amount of supply that is building and will carry over into next spring. Prices are slowly coming down as well.
good luck everyone!
gonna be exciting
I am looking for a house to buy in San Jose, and only few houses were on sale in the area I selected for myself during the ;last year period - and when they showed up, it was multiple offers situation all the time.
ELON:
Remember this one? It's going back to yesteryear's price of 100
Wow...they're still hawkish.
Cramer is nuts!! He must really be on the wrong side of something.
lee,
what you mean?
cramer painting himself as a man of the people couldn't be more transparent.
Back to the slamma for BSC?
you can just tell that everyone on the panel thinks of cramer as a charlatan.
Told you this
gosu said...
Bernanke cannot lower rates because the dollar will crash. The dollar will absolutely go down in the gutter and inflation will just be outright ugly. Already food and gas prices are obscene. Have you seen the milk prices recently??
Fri Aug 03, 05:51:00 PM EDT
The Fed repeated that the risk that inflation will fail to moderate is the "predominant policy concern."
First for some reason I find it hard to believe that Cramer is concerned about someone losing their house.
Second I do not think a rate cut will filter down to the current homeowner, I will just bail out the greedy SOB's that have been taking advantage of the past lower rates.
Third I do not believe every other house is being foreclosed on as he claims. I live in a midwest town of 30,000 and I do not think we have any that I know of.
I do not trust Jim Cramer.
arrrgh....i had the right idea on WYNN
damm....at least ive made some money in these crazy 48 minutes
anyone short the financials into the decision?
Cramers a moron.
Beanies Guru Contrarian theory works great on this moron.
Remember;
NYX and LVLT are Cramers stocks of the year
Technicals still rule (unless we're crashing soon), no matter what the fed says.
We go higher.
CSCO earnings is tonite.
CLWR got blasted out of the water today is why the telecoms are down.
You notice the solars hardly blink to the downside?
hmmm
hey, you got balls?
Go buy the TSL aug 60 calls!
die freakin bears die!!!!
Beanie,
Do you give solars STRONG BUY/BUY/HOLD at current levels?
why are the financials rebounding so hard?
stocky,
definately NOT a sell. Nibble in some more and hopefully we get a pullback.
ALternative energy is UNSTOPPABLE! The wheels have started turning almost like perpetual motion. Nobody nohow nowhere can stop it's evolution into human consciousness, and hence the stock market.
Financials are rebounding because the Fed cut does nothing to these guys who have been beaten down on mortgage concerns. The headlines for Financials still remain the expansion of mortgage buys by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
EBAY:
headed to 45
Nice head fake, with the emphasis on "fake."
Did anyone -- even retail folks -- really think Ben was going to cut rates today?
Of course not... which is why that "sell-off" was complete and total Jim Cramer Puppet Theater.
I don't trust that guy as far as I could throw him and Erin in a hammock.
Holy crapoli... BIDU just leapt up like a jackrabbit with a cricket up its ass!
GRMN!!!
Jim Cramer is brilliant. I think he intentionally trapped all the bears all the way. Everything else is just an act is what i think.
Well, I guess that's one way to look at it...
Another is that Cramer just screwed a schitload of weak hand retail money, so his buddies at the hedges could benefit.
But maybe I'm too cynical?
I wouldn't mind being in a hammock with Erin!!!
He must've known that the fed ain't gonna listen to him and probably seek to do exactly the opposite.
Yesterday on Madmoney, he essentially took back his call by giving a dozen reasons why we'll be ok with the mortgage mess.
PFE has already bottomed. Going higher.
ENER:
watch this one for tomorrow. If it takes out 30, it's gonna fly.
alternative energy.
YGE:
going higher!
Check out PCR earnings, wow
Wow, checkout out all the engineering companies:
FLR
PCR
MDR
blowout earnings.
FWLT and my little one ACM tomorrow morning.
Also, dont forget the microcap VSR. They dont report till Sept though.
ENG is a nice ENGineering company, too.
__________________
Nice call on those TSL Sitties, Beanz.
Righteous.
Fed cant cut rates because people may lose their hut. In my village cheif cut loan rate from one chicken to two fruit bats and it didnt help my family. we lost our hut and had to move to local dump. but because I am great trader, I traded my mothers back razor to local cheiftan for a new carboard box for us to live in. I am great trader. now i forage in the local dump for thing to trade in market and many people there even with rate cut. It no help my village, it no help yours.
Oh yeah, Beanie, you suck camel dung.
DOW 12900 here we come!,
wait, no, no
DOW 13600 here we come!
wait, no,no
DOWN, DOWn, DOWN !
no, wait,
BUY end of day,
wait, no,
DOW 12900 here we come today!,
No, wait,
I give up , I am full of shit.
unreal move on FWLT after hours before tomorrow earnings
jumped to 110-111
CMG should roll over tomorrow
fwlt was up $5 AH b/c of FLR earnings
beanie...what do you think about FFIV...it has been punished....think its a swing buy to 68-70?
wait...is someone impersonating gosu? there's one gosu here who is smart, reasonably polite, and very knowledgeable, and there's another here who's a complete twat..... i haven't been visiting this site daily, but i do catch up on the posts now and then!
BOOOOTYAAAAH!
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