Subprime Contagion?
The scare is on: http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a.pPEmZeZZCk&refer=worldwide
Aug, Sept and Oct tend to be the worst months of the year for the stock market. It's when all the negative news gets magnified, resulting in profit taking, which sets the stage for a year end rally. The subprime slime is making this summer much more volatile, characterized by sharp moves both ways.
Something tells me that things will get worst before it gets better. A 'contagion' could chop the stock market a good 20%. That means in the worst case scenerio the Dow goes to 11,200 as the final bottom.
As such, you must preserve capital. Trade small and trade quick in the short term, or trade the intermediate timeframe - which is trending downwards. Or just buy some index puts for October and go take a vacation. No matter what, you must preserve capital to buy the sale in late September or mid October, assuming we get the worst case scenerio.
Aug, Sept and Oct tend to be the worst months of the year for the stock market. It's when all the negative news gets magnified, resulting in profit taking, which sets the stage for a year end rally. The subprime slime is making this summer much more volatile, characterized by sharp moves both ways.
Something tells me that things will get worst before it gets better. A 'contagion' could chop the stock market a good 20%. That means in the worst case scenerio the Dow goes to 11,200 as the final bottom.
As such, you must preserve capital. Trade small and trade quick in the short term, or trade the intermediate timeframe - which is trending downwards. Or just buy some index puts for October and go take a vacation. No matter what, you must preserve capital to buy the sale in late September or mid October, assuming we get the worst case scenerio.
posted by beanie11111 | 2:53 AM
71 Comments:
A good way to trade on the short side is to wait for big rally days and put in small amount of short positions. Add a little bit more on a continuation rally. Don't blow your principle, though.
As much as i want to be a bull right now, i don't want to go against the trend and be an injured hero.
When markets trades so volatile like this with big percentage moves either way, it usually ends badly. Regardless, i still believe we will have a super year end rally.
I would say that the bull market will be back once the Dow and Nasd makes a 400-500 and 80-100 point day's leap, respectively.
CFC and WM has some bad news. The sept puts may be a good play if you believe their mess will end badly. Just watch them today.
WOW Frankfurt am report...has every DOW component knocked down a minimum of 2% AAPl down 4%... so look for gap down at opening bell, and i don’t even think DOW ends positive for the day...but then...next Monday is MERGER MONDAY...
zee
13,000...DOW must hold at 13,000...
what time do you buy the dip?
Where is the anon poster "West"?? He's the only one here who predicted this market meltdown.
NVDA:
i had really pay attention to this one yesterday, but with the Beanie's Guru Contrarian Theory applied it would have said the stock would go down today. The reason was it had a runup and both Madmoney and Fastmoney were kinda indecisive about it short term. THE CROSS! Oh well.
NVDA:
i had NOT really pay attention to this one yesterday, but with the Beanie's Guru Contrarian Theory applied it would have said the stock would go down today. The reason was it had a runup and both Madmoney and Fastmoney were kinda indecisive about it short term. THE CROSS! Oh well.
I told you this in May:
gosu said...
I don't know about S&P, but I think Dow will see 13600 before any correction to 12900.
Wed May 02, 01:01:00 PM EDT
lots of money to be made premarket
TV, how so? What trades are you making premarket?
bought some cfc around 23...sold at 24
and grabbed a few hundred MA between 133-134 avg and sold just below 137
and trading the SPY...big moves
i think a good daytrade is TNH below 75 if the market rebounds
I am waiting to see if there will be black Monday in August 13
everyone thinks the market will get crushed because no one wants to hold over the weekend
for some reason, i think we will rally at the close and close green
beanie11111 said...
Dow goes to 11,200 as the final bottom.
What happened to Death to permabears???
The trend is your friend. Trying to catch a falling knife is bloody difficult. Can make nice money trading GS. Bounced 176 twice now.
gosu,
that would be the worst case scenerio. I certainly hope we don't get there, or the bears are gonna make tons this year.
I am not going long today is most likely. Who wants to hold thru a weekend?
Dow 12900
This comment has been removed by the author.
We will not end the day higher. Hold your shorts.
YESSS!!!
YAHOOO!!
MACCCAAAA YAPPPEIPIEEE!!!
DOW 12900!!!
YAHOOO
Longs that are 'safe':
YHOO
ABC
these two are headed higher
We'll get a 10% correction on this run down. When we get to the 12600 area... then thats where things will get interesting for positioning ones-self for the end of the year. Even a lot a bears will get bullish at that level. Of course thats when you get an addiional 5% suckerpunch sell-off.
ok...tested and passed. Going long on EBAY and EMC
THanks for playin.
I'm gonna call it a day.
See ya Monday!!!
http://www.billcara.com/archives/2007/08/caras_friday_report_aug_9_2007.html#more
set up for black monday?
Nice little pop to add shorts here.
guys this is such such fun
having a record week since i moved from penny stocks to the big boys
Congrats buddy.
rumor of a fed rate cut today?
beanie...what happened...i thought u were taking rest of day off?
i have no idea whats happening at the close....had a fun day trading TNH today...gonna take the close off and after 4, look at all the craziness I missed.
You can say good bye to the indices if that happens.
tv107,
woke up from a nap and thought i'd chime in a little.
I didn't make alot of trades today. Certainly don't plan to hold much of any calls/puts into the weekend.
Things must be really bad behind the scenes for the Fed to be taking these actions. Talking tough officially but they are panicking judging their actions. Who knows, I guess a surprise cut isn't out of the question.
Truth be told, i think we need to crash. Very cleansing. Gotta refresh. Life goes on.
No Fed rate cut is what I think.
September 30, 2007 is where the bottom is.
Still not enough pain in the markets.
This bottom will end with REAL PAIN. I mean real pain, the kind of pain where bulls go cry to their wives.
REAL PAIN COMES ON SEPTEMBER 30, 2007.
On a different note, VMWare goes ipo next tuesday. The shares are hot. EMC owns 87% of VMware.
EMC rallying all day from the gap down.
More to go on Monday.
Techs are strong and should rally next week.
Tsx toronto exchange getting ready to bust out..BIG .look at the 200 day support ($TSX)...that’s hot for CP, ECA, and CANADA GOLD, co’s, GG...
DOW holds 13,000, federal intervention, so forget 12,700/12,900 ,, we will never see that in our lifetimes....
MERGER MONDAY, does anyone here think they can short sell that.....i know i can’t....so maybe i should be buying EOD...
zee
Alrighty. Have a great weekend everyone!!!!
Yours truly warned you about the sell off just recently, exactly in time.
http://beanie11111.blogspot.com/2007/06/go-security-with-symc.html#c5232706830015211965
gosu said...
There needs to be sell off which takes out all the stops for all sorts of stocks. I am not saying it will happen now, but sometime between now and November,it will happen. And ofcourse, that will be the best time to buy.
Thu Jun 21, 12:01:00 PM EDT
zee, you're delusional if you think merger monday is the dominate theme in this current enviroment.
IWM is fun...stuck between 77 and 80...probably for the next 2 weeks, good indicator to predict next day’s activity...
MRO is the stock i wish i bought at the morning dip. keeps powering up with only a slight breather here and there today.
man... LEND +50% is impressive... now there's a day trade...
steve did you even look at TSX... you going to short sell that, going into monday?
zee
Wow... my aug 70 MSTR call i thought it was going to expire worthless...went from 0.40 up to 5.30...1200% one day...
zee, yes, I am. I'm not a daytrader. I hold my positions overnight.
I'm long LEND.
come on! i wanna finish dow in the green!
What did I tell you?
"We will not end the day higher. Hold your shorts."
LEND IS GOING UNDER!!!!
just made money short after hours!
steve said...
zee, yes, I am. I'm not a daytrader. I hold my positions overnight.
I'm long LEND.
Fri Aug 10, 02:53:00 PM EDT
You have sooo much to learn Grasshopper. LEND is down 47.67% as I speak!! :-)
I tried to short LEND at the close but my brokerage wouldnt let me... damnit!!!
lol @ alok. You call me grasshopper?! You sound like that flapjack ted. How do some people get through life with so little self-awareness?
I'm not worried in the least. Watch and learn come monday.
For the record I'm avged. in the mid sixes.
steve said...
lol @ alok. You call me grasshopper?! You sound like that flapjack ted. How do some people get through life with so little self-awareness?-- I assumed you'd be the expert on that, if not ask gosu
I'm not worried in the least. Watch and learn come monday.
For the record I'm avged. in the mid sixes.
Fri Aug 10, 09:27:00 PM "
AH close on lend ...$4.66
Still a nice 28% loss from the "mid-sixes" [which I doubt]
hahahaha, nice job stevie, you should kept waiting for 12900 like you lied...uh... I mean said you were.LOL Can't wait til Monday,LOL
How long you think til they're delisted stevie?
Evening ted.
Did you ever complete your assignment?
The one where I asked you to look up the definition of irony?
Run along and do that so you will understand and then join me in laughing at how ridiculous and unaware of yourself you are.
thankfully i was daytrading SPY back and forth 10 cents after hours. Saw the drop to mid 7s at 5:00 after the filing was released. I should have shorted at that time. I had a feeling deal wouldn't go through after reading how much they lost for the quarter. Quickly located shares and got short the instant it started dropping at 6:12 when Lone Star made a statement.
Shorting LEND cost 4 cents per share. Worth every cent.
I can't wait for Monday morning! While Gosu is being wiped out by his LEND stock, I'll be waking up to THIS!
LMFAO!!!!
You MUST pay attention when something is so extremely volatile! Bush's people are on board this stock, if you follow the link on paragraph 4. Is the neocons responsible for this?
SWC is incredibly volatile! Hammered down half from the $16.47 high in just three months, Bottomed at the $8.03 on this Tudesday before the earnings conference call, immediately rallied HUGE next day to high of $11.04 and settle for a 20% gain at $10.40, flat on thursday, Rallied Friday moring to high of $10.84 and then plummeted to the low of $8.38!!! Such a stock with extremely narrow floats traded on huge volume and huge swings up and down. I bet you never saw anything like that!!!
It's a swing trader's PARADISE! I would guess most day traders would LOVE to see such volatility. Such huge daily swing creates huge profit potentials if you can do it right.
This is an incredible stock worth paying attention to. Spend your weekend study it. Maybe you can swing trade and get a quick 20% out of it in one day! And tell people about this interesting stock.
Boy thats alot of post gosu, You sure must be losing your ass in the markets lately. [If you actually have any money in them, which I dont believe you do.] You sure are worked up. Do you just post this drivel in a heated ferver or are you masturbating the whole time too?
Steve,
The ironic thing is your dismissal of my 64% gain as petty, and your 50%loss as nothing, a "wait til tommorrow" play.LOL I cant believe you lost all your allowance on one trade. Your mom is gonna be awful mad.
I only made a "cute" $374 in a two hour trade today. I know it not as big a pecentage move as yours, but the ironic thing is , mine is a profit and yours is a loss. HAHAHAHA
gosu said...
There needs to be sell off which takes out all the stops for all sorts of stocks. I am not saying it will happen now, but sometime between now and November,it will happen. And ofcourse, that will be the best time to buy.
Thu Jun 21, 12:01:00 PM EDT
Fri Aug 10, 02:32:00 PM EDT"
How genius, What an amazing prediction gosu, you are so smart.Lets see if I can match it....looking into my crystal ball.......ok here it is....."sometime in the future, the next three months maybe, stocks will go down.and when prices are lower than before it is better to buy.I'm not saying this will happen.
pretty much exactly what you "predicted huh gosu?
you're a joke.
And now you've picked one day of the entire year to buy stocks, is that right? Sept. 30th is waht you said.LOL Is that when the market will be at 12900 or is that you and Steve's anniversary?
Ted, I see you completed your assignment and it looks like you went for extra credit by showing usage in a sentence.
Well done!
Now, for your second assignment.
This one is a bit more complex, I want you to look up the term "Breach of Contract" and see if you can figure out how it applies to LEND. Now, I'm fully aware that this is going to require critical thinking, something which you've failed to show yet, but you managed to surprise me with your last post so I'm willing to give you the benefit of the doubt. And, I must admit, my motives are a bit selfish as I'm hopefully educating you a bit and perhaps doing my small part in saving you from youreself. Good luck.
Also, I wipe my ass with 300 dollars. LOL, in all seriousness though, take that shit somewhere else. Like downtown Detroit.
Re LEND..
Item 4. Terms of the Transaction
The information set forth in the section of the Offer to Purchase entitled “Terms of the Offer” is hereby amended and supplemented as follows:
On August 10, 2007, Lone Star informed the Chairman of the Special Committee of the Board of Directors of the Company that, in light of the drastic deterioration in the financial and operational condition of the Company, among other things, as of today, the Company would fail to satisfy the conditions to the closing of the tender offer. Accordingly, Purchaser does not expect to be accepting Shares tendered as of the end of the current offer period ending at 12:00 midnight, New York City time, on August 14, 2007.
...................
game over for LEND.... Stevo!
LMAO @ U !!
Alok,
I confirmed what you wrote is true. This is news to me! I have no choice but to bail out at a huge loss first thing Monday morning. Thanks for the heads up bro. Sorry I've been such an ass lately.
Steve
I have an impersonator. Lend will be sold for a nice profit, watch and learn.
Gosu,
you mentioned 12,900 as your downside target which is about 300+ points away.my question is then why are you expecting sept .30 as the day mkt could bottom? isnt that quite far?thanks
Roger
Roger, I dont expect markets to go straight down. All I have been expecting is a sell off which takes most of the stops out. I think a majority of it has already happened.
12900 or September 30, 2007 are good starting buy points. Take your picks.
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