Time to sell tech & short SNDK
SNDK is gapping up to 59 this morning.
The GOOG miss will eventually hurt tech, and soon. Wait till GOOG bounces and SNDK stalls, then short SNDK or buy the aug 55 puts. The AAPL upgrade this morning should help with the tech bounce.
Sell tech on the bounce. The 4 horsemen had their 3 month rally and is now ready to head back to the valley. If you feel aggressive you can short tech: GOOG, EBAY, SNDK, NVDA, AMZN (which i think will get hit on earnings next week), RIMM, etc.
The GOOG miss will eventually hurt tech, and soon. Wait till GOOG bounces and SNDK stalls, then short SNDK or buy the aug 55 puts. The AAPL upgrade this morning should help with the tech bounce.
Sell tech on the bounce. The 4 horsemen had their 3 month rally and is now ready to head back to the valley. If you feel aggressive you can short tech: GOOG, EBAY, SNDK, NVDA, AMZN (which i think will get hit on earnings next week), RIMM, etc.
posted by beanie11111 | 8:33 AM
63 Comments:
if sndk goes above 60, i would rethink
Did you sell your APA options?
Beanie,
How about APA? Still Hold?
APA:
i no longer own the july call options as this afternoon is expiration, but i do own the aug calls.
if you didn't sell those july calls yesterday or near the open, what were you thinking?
i would not be selling APA right here though
I am surprised that FSLR is still in triple digit after yesterdays AH debacle.
beanz, you didnt mention AAPL in your tech do-not-own list. Still a buy or hold? Earnings on tap next week.
beanie, do you still hold BIDU? I have some Sep calls in red now. Thanks a lot.
Beanie,
When you say 4 horsemen, are you referring to the big investment banks or 4 big tech stocks? Thanks!
I am pretty sure 4 horseman are tech stock. AAPL, RIMM, AMZN, GOOG
beanie what about sept calls for rimm???
beanie,
short amzn?
aymon
thank god i woke up late and caught the short at ISRG in the mid 190s.
i would have been creamed this morning if i was awake
SWEEEET!!!
richard,
RIMM i think will be ok because of the 3:1 split lurking in august. But you know you could have sold this morning and buy back those sept calls next week, right? Why ride the roller coaster down when you don't have to?
4 horsemen was a term from J. Cramer, so it can only refer to the 4 techs AAPL, GOOG, RIMM, AMZN
You know when GOOG missed it has to be a big deal for tech, and tech rallied for about 3 months now, so where do you suppose tech will go????
The reason AAPL is up is because it got a big upgrade with target upped to $200. There could still be some hope for some tech because of AAPL.
beanie,
what do you think of aapl? i'm holding aug 140 call.
thanks,
aymon
well I've lost all my profits for the week here!
...real disgusted today. right now 2nd worst day in years account wise, given back 25% of the 14 day up streak here in only 2 1/2 hours....ridiculous. and I've been making sells the past month too on way up and still getting hammered here.
seriously, every time I actually start thinking I'm good at this something like today happens....over and over again for f-ing years! this fricking endeavor definitely keeps one humble. right now a bigger loss today then any single day gain in the 14 day up streak. go figure.
I'm heading out for a bit, really just sick because I started feeling good/comfortable last night and every time that happens next day I get creamed...and right now, I'm getting absolutely killed today in the market. screw this!!
aymon,
i'm kinda iffy on AAPL in light of what has happen this week to the tech that have already reported. For AAPL, it's all about the iphone guidance. Maybe AAPL can save tech a little but i wouldn't hold my hat on it.
i'm clueless on this one for sure
AAPL:
if i'm a gamblin man, i'd naturally go short only because it ran up 20 points the last 2 weeks and because of the tech wreck. But then again it's a tough gamble because somebody must be really positive about the stock by upgrading it to $200.
i'm stifled and so i remain on the sidelines.
Hi Beanie,
Do you think BRCM is a short?
Thanks.
AMZN, AAPL and BIDU are the last bastions of hope for tech and they will announce earnings next week.
Have a great (or somber) weekend!
see ya monday.
Beanie
CSUN ... whats your take
I had all puts going into today..yeah....i guess i didn’t know how to communicate dow will not reach 14,100...earnings season is a disaster....100/0
VMC 103 target met aug 105 call 2.60..buy now...GS 207 target met aug 190 thru 220 calls ...TSO aug 52.5 call 4.10... looks good..SUN 75 target met... goog aug 550 call = 3.00 at 510 and 5.00 at 520..IYR SPG look good XHB looks good..Merger Monday...coming...FSLR new bottom is 105 target $140 short term $7/share eps for 2010= $280 stock price in 2009...
how do u love that ISRG at 200?
The PT...
My other stocks are creaming
Ntri do load
ONLY buy on the dips...and only at super lower prices, prices lower than before’s low example ::: wait for WFR to get to $56, before you rush in...so far RSI 30 is working....so stocks aren’t selling off, they are only profit taking...so look for 11% to 19% drops , and then get in...
Somebody backing up trucks on AAPL
Here comes afternoon pain 11:30 thru 12:30 PST
Beanie,
I'm new to your blog. Do you follow up with your plays later on such as APA or do you just post your new plays and leave the old plays unmentioned/up to the readers to figure out exit points.
Thanks in advance,
SF
Waiting for end of day
Buying VMC aug 105 call, GS aug 190 thru 220 calls ok, MLM 150 call, LEH aug 70 call, IYR aug 78 call, MSTR aug 90 call, TSO aug 52.5 call, VLO aug 70 or 75 call ok..and the list goes on and on.....buy on the dips...it’s just that kind of earnings season...i have no opinion on APA, except Monday favors the XLE stocks...and so SLB probably adds another $5 to its price...
I am pretty sure a while back I read a post regarding a book recommendation on Technical Analysis. Does anyone know what that book was, or if not can anybody recommend such a book. Obviously, I would want a book that someone else has benefitted from.
Thanks,
Justin
Beanie:
What's the stop for APA. Bearish engulfing is unavoidable for today. I am in Aug 85 calls. Entered when it broke 88 yesterday. Thanks.
buy VLO 72.5 calls VLO gets to $75 easy...very very easy...and VMC ...merger MONday coming you don't want to miss out i bought the VMC 110 calls at 1.20 might get $3.00 no joke
ALOK ...you are NOT THE REAL ALOK....
ZSTOCK
you need to get psychological help immediately before your anger gets you a real beating.
Instead of searching for tech shorts, anyone got any dip-buying ideas?
I like...
ONT, YGE, IMMR, FTK, JRJC.
I'd also rotate out of tech and into the transportation/ships...
DRYS, RAIL, CNI, BNI, SSW.
Oh yeah, and SNDK is a short.
-gio
Hey Z,
You mentioned buying the SPY on your blog on any dip this week. You still firm on that Dow 14,100?
-gio
Quit your whining Alok! You think your the only one who's ever had a bad day?? Sheesh!!
GIO this is a crazy earnings season...DIA = UNG...both trapped in a narrow channel....and look out for August pullback.some analyst are saying....it might happen, might start second week of August,
Zee
DOW does not make it to 14,100...SPY does not make it to 156...i keep repeating myself...
SUE, you don't get it....That's not the real alok, posting on the blog, today..that's a very angry guy, capable of any kind of violence....he neeeds immediate psychological help...
zee
the real Alok is in my IM contact box , and we IM on yahoo everyday....he told me it's not his post...
zee
Beanie missed out on AAPL's good run today. 140-144.18- closed at 143.75! Beanie, didn't you say at one time AAPL going to 200! And I believed you then, that I started buy on every dip. Thank you!!! LOL
PT,
Can't believe I sold ISRG this morning at 180. :( hehe.
What should we do with FCSX? Buy more AUG calls on the dip? How about APA? What do you think? Buy more APA?
Just loaded up a bunch of NTRI today.
Thanks!
aymon
sgv,
yes i still believe AAPL is headed to 200 (which will likely be the ultimate top).
Remember the difference between trader and investor, sgv.
SF,
Usually i don't announce exit strategies unless you ask. I got to trade my own account too. Alot of the times i lose track of a stock either because i don't own it in the first place or because i already sold (sometimes early sometimes late).
APA:
oversold. Be prepared to buy more on Monday.
Yes i still own the aug calls.
beanie,
thanks for the re-assurance on APA.
I'll buy more on monday also.
aymon
Well SBUX is up 0.20 in after hours...that pretty much says it all....Dow should be up on Merger Monday...
Hi beanie11111, first time poster. enjoy your posts. a while ago you mentioned you held TASR. they report on monday before the market opens. they are also ringing the bell that morning. are you still holding and what do you think of its near term prospects. Thanks.
Aymon,
Well done on NTRI
you will be rewarded
APA - load more
FCSX - oversold...load more..down on low volume
Anonymous said...
TSL goin to @$60 ,
FSLR goin to @$105
And... you better own puts on CSUN instead of calls right here.
Pam , stay in GLBC, you'll see the $20-$21 range next few days unless the market drops.
Mon Jul 16, 02:48:00 PM EDT
TSL- closed @ $59.88 today, puts up 33%
FSLR - saw below $105 in AH yesterday, but closed at $110 today, still downside coming tho.
CSUN puts up over 100% now
GLBC - saw 21$ for ya pam. Hope you made some cash for your beamer.
CATCHERNTHERYE said...
Btrader,pamfla. null, brett, m, anyone else interested...
HAUP- @ $4.73 now sitting on 200d MA which has beeb SOLID support for past 3 1/2 years. Min target $6, second target @$8. check out weekly chart and 200d support. slow mover tho, low volume but easy trading pattern. Buy early or when price crosses 20,40 & 50d moving average band,and stochrsi- 28 above .20 or adx crossover. I'll let ya know when it occurs. [ always runs in past] Pretty simple stops, just under 200d moving average.
HAUP chart
HYGS -Coming down to test breakout of $1.30. If it holds and bounces, buy then, or on break above $ 1.37 area or resistance of $1.40. should be an easy gainer , but targets are tough. @20% min, use trailing stop. First breakout for the stock above moving average band since Jan. 06.
do your own homework, but charts look good.
Thu Jul 05, 07:47:00 PM EDT
HYGS up 28% since the call
HAUP - up 12% and still got room to go. looking for 40% or better.
Thats how picks are posted Gosu and rest. price, stops, target and follow ups. Blog would be alot better that way. no more bullshit.
catcher
I have been saying the same thing. Clear picks include, stops targets etc.
MER and MS both down 7% in last 3 trading days. Of all the financials, I think you should pick up some of these for a 2.5-3% up swing.
I picked up some of that HYGS after that post catcher. Thanks for the tip. I don't post here much due to the nonsense that goes on but I am lurking. Appreciate it! Hey take a look at GSB. Was GSCP.ob but they've moved to AMEX and the story is good. The stock is solid fundementally and I think it's still pretty undervalued though it has had a nice run recently. Good trading.
z-stock said...
SUE, you don't get it....That's not the real alok, posting on the blog, today..that's a very angry guy, capable of any kind of violence....he neeeds immediate psychological help...
zee
Fri Jul 20, 04:12:00 PM EDT
Thanks Zee for bringing this to our attention...he sure fooled me. Theres only one person here who fits your description. I'm sure we all know who he is!
Im pretty new to daytrading. Im only looking to pick up 40cents per trade that I do. Does anyone have any good methods to go about this?
vinnie,
Regarding TASR, earnings play is always a gamble. Long term is great.
If you're playing for the short term and you already got profits, you definately should sell 1/2 before earnings.
brett,
scalping with 40 cent as a goal is not a good way to trade. Best to trade the trend.
AAPL EARNINGS PLAY ... YOU CAN’T LOSE...you buy the 3.60 call and the 3.10 put...RIGHT BEFORE AAPL announces earnings....
a $10 move up the call goes up 2.70 and the put goes down 2.00... a net of $70....
a $10 move down the put goes up +4.10 and the call goes down –2.00 for a gain of +$210
the stock moves $15 you make $400 minimun...
the stock moves $20 you make $900....not bad for no risk to you at all...
downside...AAPL only moves $5...you lose $100...
you can still wheel and deal to breakeven...
you’ll have 20 trading days...
At todays close of 143.75 the aug 160 call and aug 130 put would be used
zee- mobile on cruise control...
Even though i was very negative on tech after GOOG's disappointing earning, all may not be lost. Because we are still in a very bullish environment (climbing thru a constant Wall of Worries) selloffs are usually deep like the one we had on friday. It is meant to work off a short term overbought condition. The indexes are still in an uptrend and hasn't broken, so we have to respect that.
GOOG may turn out to be a great buy on friday in the low 500. And it most likely is. It will trade sideways for awhile and let AAPL (assuming they impress next week) step up as General to lead the techs. Other techs that could follow are RIMM, AMZN (assuming they don't get iced on earnings), BIDU (same assumption), SNDK, GRMN, KLA, ORCL, CSCO.
I would not dispose of those sept RIMM. I still like it alot. Imo, there is no way it won't have a pre or post split rally.
AAPL is a monster. We complained and complained when it was at $60. Just a little bit of patience does a wallet good.
I still think we will end with a great year in 2007, a presidential cycle. And you know that whatever GW Bush wants, he gets. Who wants to bet that he doesn't want the market to end on a bang, going into the 2008 election?
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