JUDGEMENT DAY
Judgement Day: 8 days
I now put the probability of a severe correction at 70% between those 8 trading days.
I put the probability of a CRASH by the 8th trading day at 50-50. It may not sound like a high number, but it is.
I now put the probability of a severe correction at 70% between those 8 trading days.
I put the probability of a CRASH by the 8th trading day at 50-50. It may not sound like a high number, but it is.
posted by beanie11111 | 1:28 PM
146 Comments:
WHAT DAY WAS 1st ??? The date??
Z-stock, I hope you did get rid of your SNDK.
the last hour of trading today should be extremely interesting.
From the look of things, i think we go down hard towards the close.
Good to see our way out of the money FCX nov 90 puts are worth something today. I am only buying this as a Crash holding.
, so my XLE short finally took off
however, WHQ at the 200 day = 56ish
i'm buying that
but other than that
i'm all in cash, 'cept NTRI, (position is killing me)
and I'm
short everything else, (using RSI 29 signal), i suppose someday, i'll post how you are supposed to trade those. MMM made that list today..look for more down..MMM
and XHB still not at the bottom = housing = short
and DIA at 50 day = 135 ish , so still more down to go.
And D
i"m out
and ARUN
i missed oct GOOG exit by $5000, sorry about that
zee
VMW:
I am buying back just 25% of my original position right here at 99.
I guess i want to be somewhat exposed when they announce earnings next Wed.
I might at more next week.
By Wednesday, depending how comfortable i feel about the market, i may get back in VMW fully.
I would not be surprised if it does sell of hard the last hour. Noone wants to hold into a weekend. This is a very uneasy market.
PTR going down, down down down. Buffet sold and he laughs at china.
Amazing on a day like this and ISRG up 21 points. If it was an up day for the market, this stock could be up 30.
Geez Louise, is Strong Arm Ben Benanke gonna save us longs? lol
anon,
more like 50pts on a good day!
dimitry,
Don't take it too literally regarding the days. You be screwed if you trade base on that. We have to see one day at a time.
All the bad things should finish happening to the markets by the 1st week of November.
What is the 8th day?
Well, uh, make that by the 2nd week of November.
beanie,
a bit confused..which one was the 1st day? where should we start the count from? plz explain
roger
Beanie, I'm eating a huge plate full of humble pie right now. I got my wings clipped today big time. Looks like you and Gosu was right in predicting this market drop.
Mr. Anon
We gonna get a brutal monday, man.
On a similar note, Cramer appears very quiet today. He would be one of those traders who would have left the backdoor today. He is that good.
lol
I am ready for a CRASH right now right here. Are you ready? Is your portfolio crash-proof? I guess you would be if you're 100% cash. lol
SPY 149.8 = 50 day , hmmmm
WFR 58 looks terrible but $56 = 200 day and that’s 95% sure the support
10-19 C = r29 its a buy at 41 ish, today at 43
but in all the misery, here's a BUY..
JCP 55/56 target met BUY the NOV 50 CALL
people are throwing in the towels on SNDK
dumped sndk in the 44s
will buy at the close probably
could we be down 400 pts on the DOW today?
Thanks Beanie for the heads up on the market.
Thanks Beanie. I have just a small position in NNRI. Rest cash.
Hey folks, i gave ya what i think are the probabilities of a crash or severe correction. Probabilities are probabilities and doesn't mean 100% certainty. So i don't want you folks to go out there buying tons of puts at these levels. That would be stupid of you. At the very least, wait till we get a decent up day before you go crazy.
Better yet, just short the stocks themselves and leave the puts alone.
FCX nov 90 is the only puts i got. Ok? (Besides, do you really want to relish on other people's suffering? You could cause some people to jump off the bridge, you know.)
Beanie,
What exact bridge do you recommend ? LOL !!!
As long as bears play agressively in the wake of crude prices which is being percieved to hit $100 in the forseeable future, a market CRASH ironically may be needed to hopefully push crude back to low 80s, a more tolerable level, as recession fears risen from the crash could also dampen the ever-rising crude prices.
BUY BUY BUY we are at the BOTTOM
VIX 50 day = 22.1 at 21.6 now BUY the VIX NOV 22.5 PUT when VIX in the hi 21’s
ZEE
BUY BUY BUY BUY
WE ARE AT THE BOTTOM!!!!!!
ZEE
We are now very oversold immediate term. Please don't buy puts here.
this makes for a long weekend. Lots of people might be jumping tonight.
Dia buy target met...135. 4 = 50 day..=.BUY BUY BUY
BUY NMX 124’s you won’t get a better price...nov 125 or 135 or 130 CALLS
major buying will come in last 20-25 minutes IMO
BUY JCP hasn’t even budged last 150 points down... nov 50/55 calls
Have a great weekend and i'll see ya Monday!
Beanie can hardly wait until the trading session ends - he rushes to have lunch = noone of us sent him a burger :)
Dam I am lucky, none of my stops have hit yet. Knocking on wood.
Going to pick up some shares today.
STV under 39 - only 25% position
A lot of new money is buying the dips,,if the market gaps down monday,,it will snap all those stops and get really interesting.
By the way,,,Cramer will prob. kill himself on T.V. tonight...
Chinawhite
That's a dam good point anon.
I better remove those stops tonight.
Remember this is a correction to buy!
Anonymous said...
Beanie, I'm eating a huge plate full of humble pie right now. I got my wings clipped today big time. Looks like you and Gosu was right in predicting this market drop.
Mr. Anon
Fri Oct 19, 02:40:00 PM EDT
Mr. Anon,
I hope you have learned a valuable lesson. You are obviously new at this game.
Dimitry said...
Beanie can hardly wait until the trading session ends - he rushes to have lunch = noone of us sent him a burger :)
Fri Oct 19, 03:33:00 PM EDT
What are you talking about?
He owes me a cheeseburger!!!
SPY 149.8 = 50 day
target met
buying SPY 145 call 7.30
BA 94.0 looks good buying the BA NOV 95 / 100 calls
Where is all the buying? It's just going down down! This is ugly for monday. Only fools buying right now!
PCAR ..BUY NOW at 49 ish
my stocks didnt decline in the last hour thankfully...just brutal
less than 1 pt on spx away from gap filled
did ok considering but suffered terrible loss with sndk
carrying tsl and stv over the weekend
hopefully those 2 recover my sndk loss
ANON3.59 i give you a 30% chance of being right
Monday might be a collapse ( doubtful), which would just be too coincidental...both market crashes happen on the same day, 20 years apart
Z I give you a 90% chance of being wrong! I hope you really didn't go long at the close!
Z-I remember back in August you said there was "no way" the Dow could get below 13200 and it went far below that! Learn your lesson!
funniest thing was at the open i was short one of the only green stocks of the day in TNH (on TRA downgrade)
luckily it dipped at open where i covered before it rose all day
Zee, its possible because market trades off emotion, its people that control the market , if everyone believes market fall and panic and sell then the prophecy fulfills itself.., thats when all charts and math fails you because people are just not rational, lets give it a 50/50 at this point, I am still mostly long for long term but also sitting at significant cash. I doubt market will crash, really doubt it. But just in case...
Beanie I'm in the hole pretty bad do you think we will get a bounce come monday? I was too afraid to sell today and am hoping to be able to get out monday morning. Thanks and sorry again. I'm going to try to learn from here on out.
Mr. Anon
for ((i=1;i<=1000;i+=1));
do
echo
"THIS IS A CORRECTION TO BUY!!!" ; done
Monday: AAPL& Uncle Ben
Hard to think what Ben will do,
however if he opts for "do nothing"
that may not be a good thing..
the question is which options will play the hardest either way..
I am sure money is going to be made Monday,,if we are lucky and
thoughtful,,,,we, will be in the thick of it.....
Chinawhite
Beannie:
OPBL closed at 0.16 today on strong volume of 63,000 -what do you see for monday?
Mr. Anon
You crack me up!!!
You weren't on margin, are you?
Yes, unfortunately I was at 100% margin as of yesterdays close. What do you think will happen come monday?
Mr. Anon
Tipoff mightbe: Sundaynight ASIA
Beanie,
Long time observer. Never posted. That was a really "ballsey" call yesterday and very correct. All dirt kicking "Anons" should be apologizing big time. I really dislike the use of profanity on blogs. But they owe you a huge F*****g apology. Seems the only tongue they speak in.
Congrats on a great call.
FWLT is up 5.65% AH.
What the hell is going on there?
Hey look! Dumbshit is back and he seems repentent. LOL!!
No advice for you!
lmao
FWLT - nothing but tape painting. down AH now actually
Signed up so that I don't get accused for being Mr. Anon.
i remember posting 132, but i also said watch for 126, which at the time, i got cusrsed at, crazy, well we got 125,
but i'm only buying very selective companies, JCP,target63 easy, NTRI target 39 easy, WHQ,BA,NMX,IIIN target 18
i'm still mostly in cash
but i did buy some SPY,i just think it will bounce off the 50 day...if not then next bottom is really really down there
zee
Mr. Anon,
Here is my 2 cents for you. I think the global markets will be down on Monday morning. It is global ripple effect. Therefore, US market will be hard to get up after this knockout punch today.
Austin.
Interesting: Now they (cnbc) hinting that a 50 basis point cut
is probable, I thought that not poss. because of the dollar, inflation and the other bed bugs that go along with cuts..if Ben cuts,,i'm going to start thinking
recession "could be " on the table
and plan for the pull back that will come.
NYX and GOOG saved my butt today. only down a little.
Regarding buying STV, gotta watch for some signs of strength in china and tech, and not just solars. And if oil starts coming down, the solars might take a hair cut with it.
love that script fortune8!!
Thanks Joe.
Folks, I am no expert and am still learning just like the rest of you. Wish we all can make money together.
Want a quick get away?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=QLD&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p08200482856
You probably can take a little nibble here for a faster recovery. Notice the slope for the EMA's are still positive.
I hope this whole episode of last two day will prompt most of Anon. to sign up also make this blog more useful.
Every bank and retail stock is up in after hours, just like i thought
SPY 157.5 down to 149.6 = 5% correction,
DIA 141.8 down to 134.7 = 5% correction
I think that’s all the bears can get, is 5%
Zee
HSI goes down less that 7.5% on SUN night, DIA will go up Monday
JCP
just got upgraded to OUTPERFORM in after hours
Just lots of information for you to chew on.
Market Drop But No Surrender
http://www.247wallst.com/2007/10/market-drop-but.html
ah didn't realize we hit trading curbs...
"A decline Friday in the NYSE composite index proved steep enough to trigger trading curbs, which puts restrictions on certain types of sell orders. These type of protections were put in place as part of the response to Black Monday."
today's market action felt a lot like friday august 3 of this year
we did rally the next 3 days before collapsing again
omg, i am hearing some you you folks are buying today on the way down. ARE YOU INSANE? You may turn out to be lucky on Monday, but you are INSANE. How do you know this is the end of the fall and not the beginning? With the kind of fall, i suspect markets all over the world will start (continue?) crashing next week.
I pray for you if you are high on margin to the long side.
Have a great weekend............
Hey, buying 10-20% near the close is ok. Any more than that, you are hopefully hedged.
Better yet, why not stay out until the end of October?
mpatel said...
I hope this whole episode of last two day will prompt most of Anon. to sign up also make this blog more useful.
Fri Oct 19, 05:26:00 PM EDT
If I do that I'll probably use the name "Still-learning" cuz that's how I feel right now.
Big down day here... looking forward to getting stopped out on Monday. I'm tired of all this at this point. Not looking good here.
New low for me today. Had four straight up days this week and got a little cocky. Then lost it all+ on this ugly friday.
This crazy market continues to be difficult to trade for me. I'll go into safer stuff for awhile now that I'm back to being red again for 2007.
Mr. Anon
tick...tock...
Just kiddin..
We are due for a bounce.
You'll know it's quite serious if we can't even close positive on Monday.
beanie,
Why are you spooking everyone?
No one can call the exact bottom.
If you think the market will be higher by year end, which I do, then you should test the water with your toe. I am not saying jump in head first. Test the water.
QLD is still above 50 ema.
No panic until it hits 100 ema.
And if you are not on margin, then you have more time than others.
How many people wished they bought on 9/11?
How many people wished they loaded up on 8/16?
Buy good growth company and not the hype.
And for God's sake, diversify. Don't stick all you money in VMW.
There are stocks that went up today on high volume - CF
I WANT MY CHEESEBURGER!
i can tell the bottom
NEXT WEEK,
The HOTTEST sectors in the S&P 500 report = XLI up 10%, XLV up 10% and XLK up 7%...watch for QQQQ to go to new yearly highs
oh and i bet anon who said i'm 90% wrong
i bet he doesn't own QID, VIX or even has one short sell
so he doesn;'t put his mouth where his money is
zee
I think there's just too much money "out there" waiting for the market to bottom out and maybe it's just a matter of days, a week or 2 before the market rebounds.
I just happen to hold just 2 stocks YGE and AAPL - lost a few points but still ahead. I shall be bottom fishing next week- but will try to buy at 'lowest' possible price of the day. I think this market corrections is healthy for long term investing and another welcome opportunity to buy low.
BHIP huge short imo i shorted 3.70 today
Did anyone get NED..!! Looks like one more hot IPO from China..!!
It's ok to buy a little back of the stocks you sold, like FSLR (which is down over $7), for instance. Or VMW.
You got to have cash on the side to buy more on bigger sales.
Margin highly not recommended, and buying call options to gauge a rebound is for gamblers.
I don't know what to tell ya, i am very scared for those bulls who are on margin and not hedged.
Well, it started with divergences in our indicators last week and then picked up with a repeat of the risk aversion trade from August. Friday's market truly accelerated the weakness: we saw 456 new 20-day highs across the major exchanges and 1805 new lows. The downside momentum was evident in the Demand/Supply data, with Demand (an index of the number of stocks closing above the volatility envelopes surrounding their short- and intermediate-term moving averages) at 21 and Supply (those closing below the envelopes) at 204.
I went back to the start of 2003 (N = 1185 trading days) and found 22 occasions in which we had more than 1000 new 20-day lows and Supply greater than 150. These, like Friday, are days in which we have seen high downside momentum, with a number of stocks extended to the downside.
Interestingly, of the 22 occasions, 16 registered a lower daily close in the S&P 500 Index (SPY) during the next week of trading. Indeed, five days after the strong momentum down day, SPY was up 11 times and down 11 times, for an average loss of -.14%. That compares poorly with the average five-day gain of .23% for the remainder of the sample.
In sum, broad weakness and downside momentum are often followed by further price weakness in the short run. It's when index lows occur with fewer stocks making fresh price lows on less extreme downside momentum readings that reversals are most likely to occur. -Dr. Brett
I fear the worst is not over. It may only be just the beginning.
Be prepared, my friends.
Margined bulls will be wiped out when all is said and done.
Be careful...
I give the probability of a CRASH at 50-50. That is a huge number if you think about it. I am scared for many bulls.
AAPL's earnings is Monday nite. That, and today's huge selloff that needs a rebound, should keep the market from imploding further. If GOOG is of any indication, it may not be that comforting.
Anonymous said...
Gosu was right in predicting this market drop.
Mr. Anon
Fri Oct 19, 02:40:00 PM EDT
Thanks buddy. For over a week now I've been pounding the table and telling everyone the Gosu Rally was coming to an end. While you were being such a smart-ass on here I was loading up on QID and put options. Friday was your worst day of the year... it was my best day! :))
You have much to learn Grasshopper.
iNCREDIBLE WHEN U HAVE 4 MAJOR COMPANIES BLOW UP ON SAME DAY:
MMM, SLB, HON, CAT
all of this talk is hogwash. friday was merely a market event, a daily fluctuation, a blip. to read more into it is inane.
there are many bad things in the economy, yes, we feel toppy, but to call a crash or some stuff is just irresponsible.
i was wrong on the bottom, we had another 70 pts, but it is not crash time.
Beannie
Agreed...I am also feeling that in next 1 or 2 weeks we will get even more heavy selling..May be monday will be quite in anticipation of AAPL but this down side train has left the station and will keep running i guess till FOMC...I sold half of my account...but sill holding HPQ,NOK,INTC,NOV (all long) I may sell these longs on monday depending on the tape...& am also holding WNR (short)
-Exp Trader
Any clown can make a blanket statement.
We are going to have a correction or we are going to have a rally.
First of all, can some one here define "market crash".
NASDAQ has gone from 2,451.07 (Aug 16) to a new high of 2,834.00.
Now we have a less than 3% correction and everyone is calling for a crash.
Here is what I have gathered from various outlets.
The Feds will lower interest rate one more time before the end of the year.
It may be on Oct 31 and it may not be, but before the end of the year.
The market will close higher before the end of the year.
Coming out of October has been the best performance for the market historically.
Three more days until VMW report earnings. This will be interesting.
To Mr. Anon: It's okay to be humble, but not okay to kiss ass.
I WANT MY CHEESEBURGER!
Hi Beanie,
Can you give any insight on YHOO? I am very interested in the IPO for Alibaba.com. I am unsure how this IPO can be played. I am currently about 75% cash per your warnings. I am really anticipating some bargains this coming week.
Guys, what's the deal with cheeseberger?
I'm posting as anonymous but I'm not Mr. Moron Anon.
If GOOG didn't help the markets, don't expect AAPL to help either.
You folks should look for any big rallies to unload.
The time is here to rinse rinse rinse. Gotta clean out some of the excesses, and make way for new leaders. It always happen that way.
You just simply cannot keep on having all these stocks running to da moon.
AAPL will likely be sold off, or have limited upside.
If double blinded studies are supposedly scientific, then why does the medical profession constantly change their minds?
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071020/cold_medicines.html?.v=3
Beanie,
This cold medicine for kids is major fiasco... what does a parent do if the kid is sick, let him/her suffer..!!
Fortune8,
Please don't be so bitter just because Beanie was right and you were wrong. I was once confident and cocky like you but the sudden market drop caught me off guard. No doubt you are heavy in margin like me and scared shitless about what will happen Monday.
Wanna piece of my humble pie??
Mr. Anon
Cold Meds?: I think they would rather you take your small children to the Dr. than try to handle it with over the counter meds. We always took ours to the Dr. (usually at night) if temp passed a certain point, or congestion worsened...They depend on us to do the right thing...
Chinawhite
thank god for beanie -- but you gosu also seem to be able to read the market -- unfortnately i did not see posts from you last week with your comments -- please give us your opinions more starting now -- this has become scary -- i did margin on friday to get more VMW -- should i sell on a bounce?? monday??
I do not like anonymous postings so I signed up so I could respond to beanie's opinion on a market correction/crash.
This is my first visit to your web site and the first thing I did before responding to your "doom and gloom" post was review your past 4 months of posts (about an hour). I wanted to see what other kind of predictions/track record you have. I was actually shocked, not suprised but shocked. You really know your stuff. I tracked your recommendations and you are usually right on. You also seem to have some good people who post on here.
Can you clarify "correction" versus "Crash"? And what do you mean by "All the bad things should finish happening to the markets by the 2nd week of November."? To be honest, I see us going into a recession (I know, doom and gloom). I see housing as the issue not credit. Housing takes a long time to resolve.
shawnrains,
A crash is basically a huge ONE DAY correction in the order of magnitude of at least 10%. It usually starts in premarket. Sometimes it ends in the same day; that is, it rallies from there on and making it the absolute bottom. It usually happens typically on a Monday, when most of the people have time to compose themselves on the weekend and thinking what they're gonna do on Monday. (lol)
Now, a crash is not something that happens out of nowhere. It usually follows several days of massive selling.
The reason a crash is so scary is that it wipes out all the margined longs. They basically have no time to respond to the market, especially when the market gaps down huge pre-premarket. They can't sell because everybody is doing it and the systems are jammed. The brokers get rid of their positions for them (usually at the low). After that, they're basically wiped out and have no money to buy at the bottom. Some even owe the brokers money!
On Friday (yesterday), pretty much anybody who wants to sell can sell via their computer. Easy thing to do.
But not in a CRASH! Those who are margined are so scared sh*tless that they don't know what to do, assuming they can do anything. If they hold on to their positions, the market might come down even more and wipe them out. If they sell, they might have sold at the bottom and they're still wiped out (as a result of margin). Either way, it ain't a pretty sight. Can you imagine investors with millions of stock networth getting wiped out overnite (thanks to margin usage due to greed)? That's how some people end up jumping off bridges and buildings. Everything they worked for all their lives just disappeared in a few days of carnage. That happened to many people in 1929 when you could borrow $1,000 for every $100 that you have. (Nowadays, for every $100 you have, you can borrow $400. Still pretty deadly thing to do, using margin that is.)
shawnrains,
I say the 2nd week of Nov, assuming there is a deep correction/crash plays out starting next week. But this thing can be dragged on for couple of months, assuming no crash.
Nobody can really predict what's gonna happen. I'm just making an educated guess based on history and intuitive feel.
Look, i'm not suggesting the end of the world is here. Not at all. In fact, i'm longer term bullish.
All i'm suggestin is that you get off margin (and call options). That's all. When that is done, you will survive this coming crisis, and thrive as our bull market continues (and yes, it will continue to unprecedented highs by this time next year.) The Dow will see 30,000 and the Nasdaq will see 10,000 within the next 5 years .
Oh yeah, even if we get a bounce on Monday, the bears will likely mount another attack.
Did you see how quiet Cramer was on Friday, essentially all day? Not a pig squeak.
This is not signs of a bottom in this deep dive. It’s when he comes out kicking and screaming and crying and begging, that’s when we get the bottom.
Something very eerie is looming.
You are looking for things that aren't there . Cramer was at Georgia Tech and was travelling. His show was prerecorded.
He stated a few weeks back that he thought there would be a 2-3% correction.
Cook
Cook,
i was referring to his street.com presence. He has been in many colleges before and it has not stopped his online presence.
We just had about 3% correction on Friday.
I'm afraid we got more to go.
beanie,
you have been nothing short of spectacular in your market calls. WOW! Luck me, I've pretty much in agreement w/you and have been positioning myself to be short into Monday with already big gains in PTR w/puts. I'm also shorting SLB & MTG. Do you think Oil stocks will attempt a rally before they plunge down further. Oil MUST be stopped IMO. Higher Oil will bring america faster into recession, so it will come down much like it did last November, if I recall.
Mr. Anon,
You are a moron!
Go and reread all my posts.
I have been saying all along that this is a correction to buy and not to sell.
I have been saying that if you are not on margin, then you have nothing to worry about.
I have been saying that the market will be higher by year end.
I even bet beanie that VMW would not hit 120 by earnings. At first, I thought I was going to lose. But now I don't think so.
I have said that STV needs to fill the gap and it did. I did not short STV because it was too risky. I sat and watch.
I bought 25% position in STV at 39.
At this point, I welcome a correction so that I can buy some stocks on sale. A 10-15 percent correction won't hurt me. At 25% correct would be painful.
Some stocks I would like to pick up at at discount: auo cf ewz mon moo mos slx.
My call is that the market will make new high by the end of the year. This is your chance to buy low and sell high. Unless you get wiped out with margin calls.
Here is a little math for you. If you lose 50% of your portfolio, you will need 100% growth just to break even. If you lose 25%, then you will need 34% growth.
Protect your profit and limit your loss. I have learned this the hard way many years ago.
beanie
plz plz plz suggest some (funamentally + technically weakening) short plays which are bound to go down over a period of next one month
plzzzzzzzzz i am searching for shorts but so far found only two SLB & JOYG so far...its v difficult to find shortsssss
exp trader
Greenspan Questions Huge Bail-Out Fund (C)(JPM)(BAC)
According to the FT, former Fed chief Alan Greenspan says that the $75 billion plus fund to buy the assets of troubled investment vehicles is a bad idea. The leaders in the push for the idea are Citigroup (C), Bank of American (BAC), and JP Morgan (JPM)
He is quoted in the newspaper as saying: "What creates strong markets is a belief in the investment community that everybody has been scared out of the market, pressed prices too low and there are wildly attractive bargaining prices out there.” He added: “if you intervene in the system, the vultures stay away. The vultures are sometimes very useful.”
Warren Buffett and Bill Gross of Pimco has made similar comments
Douglas A. McIntyre
How true is that!
You have to survive before you can swoop.
Buy when there are sellers and sell when there are buyers.
If you're happy and you know it, SELL. If you're happy and you know it, SELL.
If you are scared shitless, buy something.
exp trader,
APA @ 93.3 or better can be shorted. Earnings is Thur.
FCX @ 109.7 or better can be shorted. Note that earnings is Wed.
CVX @ 89.3 can be shorted.
RIMM @115 can be shorted.
AMZN @ 89.8 can be shorted.
Also, go to www.slopeofhope.com for more shorts.
beanie
i know slopeofhope.com...but problem with it that Tim Knight just short anything that goes up without any fundamental sense..
anyway thnx for shorts..suggest more if possible .... i just want to short worst of worst (which will reduce my rist :-))
Beanie
I have selected APA as potential short from the list given by...I liked AMZN also as short but just don't want to touch it due to earnings...
give me more shorts..beanie the don!!!
PTR can be shorted, as indicated on Friday morning.
Beanie,
Thanks for responding. My plan was to be out of all of my call options and most of my stock by this Wed and wait until after the fed meeting to get back in the market. But I think I will change that to start getting out on any bounce on Monday and Tuesday. I will also look at some of those short positions you suggested.
I already had concerns for the long term but my short term downside estimates are not as gloomy as yours. But if I move my exit strategy time frame up and your scenario does not play out, I MAY not get as much upside. But if I move up my exit strategy and it does play out, I save a lot of capital.
This is a great website. Good information both from yourself as well as other posters.
beanie11111,
Do you think the market will test the August or September lows?
Time to prepare for the upcoming market crash! Here is list of all stocks I'm watching for pullback...
My diversified portfolio:
ACM, EDN, EIG, ATN, CEP, SPRD, SLT, AIMC, FCSX, OCNF, LDK adding MASI, TRS
Shippers:
PRGN, OCNF
Solar:
SPWR, STP, FSLR, YGE, LDK, JASO
Energy:
FCSX, CLNE, CZZ, CLR, MBLX
Internet:
OMTR, ATHN, SCOR, SLRY
Retail:
LULU, ULTA, ZUMZ, VLCM
Tech:
STAR, VMW, SHOR, INFN, SMCI, DDUP, MLNX, DFT, CAVM, ARUN, APKT
Medical:
MASI, OMPI, TTPY, TSON, VOLC
Yields stocks:
All MLPs, GLS, AYR, AER, FLY
China:
MR, EJ, PWRD, SPRD, SVT, NED, FFHL
International exposure:
SLT, EXLS, VRTU, CZZ, MELI
Mexican:
OMAB, MXT
Small Cap:
LIMC, PRO
Other:
DUF
Not a complete list so please recommend solid stocks I've missed.
Mr. Anon
So what happens on Monday, sell off continues or we see a bounce?
Well, I finally got all 4 of my sick children tucked into bed and decide to relax by trying to figure out my "what to buy on sale" list and find that Mr. Anon has already been hard at work! Thanks for the stock suggestions, Mr. A! :)
Cheers,
Sue
Can you folks at least wait till next friday before buying anything??
Hey bulls, be careful out there! Nasd will dip to at least 2600-2650 support area. At least! Don't kid yourselves now, thinking that we get a rally on Monday and everything is ok.
You shouldn't listen to the permabears, because they're always negative eventually they'll get a carrot right. But i'm a raging bull and i'm turning scared. So ya gotta pay some attention to that.
We go down on Monday 75% chance, if Friday is of any indication.
I am scared for the bulls. I am. I am. Make sure you get out of margin. I don't want to have to say, "I told ya so!"
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LDK double bottom break down 10/19.
Next support is 30 and closed under 36 10/19.
Nibble 10% position at 30 with a 10% stop loss.
Thanks for the list Mr. Anon! Respect your thoughts and your list, always.
Do you have BLOG on the tech list as well?
Anon, Thanks for the list, I have added them in my watch list.
Do you have a price target on each of them as the good buying price? TIA
Zee is calling for QQQQ new yearly high next week. I am just not that good to pin point to one week. However, QQQQ will make new high by year end - 2.25 months out.
QQQQ high on 7/19 low on 8/16 - that is close to a month.
10/31 Uncle Bernie comes in.
I don't think anyone can consistently call the top or bottom. Even a blind squirrel can find a nut sometimes.
If you buy, don't buy all of it at once.
At the flop, I am ALL IN with AA and you have FLUSH draw. What do you do?
Thoughts!?: any wells fargo employee from back in the day, knows how fargo contributed to the 87 dip,,,program trading,trading insurance,,computer driven---stock drops,,,sell,,which causes the stock to drop again and triggers another sell,,mind you-across the entire s&p500..
I am sure this is no longer used, and there are eyes and fingers involved now along with
curbs of every kind..
Can the hedgies get nervous, or
just sell high and buy low...which i might add is what we also try to do,, i guess what i'm saying is that most of the gains that was made from the last rate cut has been taken back,,except for the nasdaq------proceed with caution flags are flying...
Chinawhite
Yes, Folks I'm buying tomorrow and hopefully at rock bottom price and I'd be willing to wait even months to get 20-50% gains! LOL
I think LDK at 30 or below will be a bargain!
Bill Cara wrote the following yesterday:
"Exactly two weeks ago today, with the Dow 30 poised at 14066, I wrote in the Saturday Report, “Yes, I think the evidence is mounting – probably overwhelming at this point – that the equity market is at the top of its long-term cycle.”
I went on to say,
As I see it, half the world is in a Bull market and half has already started the Bear cycle. In the Week In Review (WIR) that I will publish Sunday morning, I’ll explain Why.
Although probably 99 pct of you disagree, in naming Bull or Bear, the Who comes easy. The equity markets of the US, Japan, UK and Germany have topped out, whereas another intermediate-term bull phase can be expected from India and China, Hong Kong and Singapore, Russia and Brazil, Canada and Australia.
What I am saying is that the super powers have spent their ammunition, and need time to re-load.
It won’t be a pretty sight watching. Something like 1973-74, or maybe 81-82, hopefully 87, and hopefully not like 2000-2002. Nobody knows at this point. All I know is that the cancer is terminal, and life in these markets continues hoping beyond hope, pumped up by the desperate Talking Heads of the corporate kowtowing financial media.
The second group doesn’t need hope at this stage. A developing middle class of consumers and savers in India and China -- well over a third of the world’s population -- is driving economic growth and corporate employment and profitability. The ammunition I spoke of came from you know Who.
The relatively small offshore centres of Hong Kong and Singapore serve as financial bridges to those huge emerging markets, while Russia, Brazil, Canada and Australia provides the natural resource commodities that rapidly growing Chindia requires.
But international trade and commerce does not operate in a vacuum. The fiscal, economic, financial and/or currency ills of the super-powers will at some point – likely not more than six to nine months later – spread to the rest of the world.
That’s not a scenario that is either popular or promoted in today’s media. Nonetheless, based on my observations and analysis of capital market prices, it’s how I size up what’s happening to the world today.
First there was the popping of the housing bubble, then the credit market bubble, and soon to come will be the presently developing commodity bubble.
Reversion to the mean. It’s how markets work. The market is us. In the long run, averages win.
This is not rocket science."
So, basically there are two scenarios possibly in play. Slow and painful ala 2002 or quick terrifying ala 1987.
COT NUMBERS WORSE THIS WEEK THAN LAST WEEK
t-bills long
frozen food long
gold 80% short, that’s huge
silver, HUGE SHORT = short GDX, SIL
canadian dollar 80% short, that’s huge, short sell Canada,= ECA,CNQ,CNX,
short, peso,pound,euro
long yen
S&P 500 long and short=???????
QQQQ, barely long, QQQQ mini HUGE SHORT
IWM, slightly bullish
AUStralian dollar ..HUGE SHORT= BHP, short
USD dollar , extreme bull...short gold stocks, energy
NIKKEI Bullish,,,buy TM
VIX 50/50
Nat gas long
Heating oil SHORT
Fuel in general 50/50
if you bought any of my calls / longs, GET OUT NOW, COT is EXTREME BEAR
zee
How the fuck do i get out now? I am fucked, you dirty son of a bitch, you fucked me royaly with your flip floppin, is there 2 f,s in jaggoff ?
"ANON3.59 i give you a 30% chance of being right..."
I give you a 100% chance of being a dumbass. At least you had the balls to show up and admit you were wrong, that is admirable.
anon 3:59
Guys, Read the message boards on yahoo for C, BAC & JPC and its all doom and gloom according to that.
I am now believing more and more about what Beanie is saying... this market could crash or have one more big correction any time..!!
I am just hoping for a bounce to sell half of my holdings for sure..!!
No one mentions CSCO. Earnings in Nov and it has been decliing . I think it has grat potential from here going into earnings.
Cook
Japan getting whacked right now...AUssie too.
Last Post:
Always remember,there "will be" a
economically prudent entry point in any failing stock, to have done your DD is of greatest importance
and provides the greatest reward..
Good hunting over the next few days business people,,,after all,,
this is the business we chose,,no one said it would be easy.....
Chinawhite
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