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The last few years have been great to me, as i was able to clobber the S&P500 many times in returns. But of course, you can't make a living trading the markets if you don't make great great returns. I'll try to give my readers trades that i think will make them money. However, you need to have money management skills, in order not to lose everything on a greedy or stupid trade. I may or may not already be in the trades i recommend. I may or may not trade the stocks i recommend. Due diligence is required on your part and the usual disclaimer that i am not responsible for your losses always apply. I have no affiliations with any broker/dealer and all posts are for educational purposes only. Remember to 'refresh' the home page and the "Comments" pages frequently in order to receive updated posts. Let's rock!

Saturday, October 13, 2007

VMW is the next CSCO!!!!!!!!!!!!!

VMW closed @ 103

You know i like this stock alot, both from a trading and an investment perspective. I'd stay away from EMC. I like VMW's business, i therefore buy VMW. None of that EMC backdoor nonsense.

Tobin Smith is saying that VMW can get to $1,000, which is the next GE.


At $500, VMW would be the next CSCO or GOOG.

I'd say $500 is more reasonable than $1,000. No one should trade more than GE.


So in light of VMW support from Tobin, i am now raising my target of VWM from $300 to $500.

Buy buy buy!!!

28 Comments:

Blogger beanie11111 said...

VMW is both a tech and "alternative energy" play!!!!!

Their software helps businesses save alot of money on server and energy costs!

Sat Oct 13, 05:33:00 PM EDT  
Blogger beanie11111 said...

http://www.informationweek.com/industries/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=202401578

Sat Oct 13, 05:35:00 PM EDT  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Beanie,

Where can you read Tobin Smith's comments about VMW potentially at $1,000. Thanks

Sat Oct 13, 06:13:00 PM EDT  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

DKAM.OB may be lebed pump on mONDAy imho

Sat Oct 13, 06:46:00 PM EDT  
Blogger beanie11111 said...

I thought that was the oddest thing he had ever done.
On Wednesday he was essentially promoting VMW as a new
Horseman. On Friday he was bearish. The excuse of
possible 10 point plunge when you wake up is nonsense
at best, for that can be said for all the Tech
Horsemen.

I think something or someone have made him change his
mind. Perhaps he was privy to new information. Either
that, or the Caris upgrade on Friday. A previous Caris
upgrade had moved the stock dramatically, but this time
with an upgrade to 150, the stock didn't budge. This
says the stock has topped out at least in the short
term.

Incidentally, i heard someone said that today Tobin
Smith of Changewave said that VMW is his top growth
stock of the next 5 years, claiming it will grow 10x
bigger. I didn't see Fox's Bulls & Bears. Maybe you
did.

Sat Oct 13, 08:13:00 PM EDT  
Blogger beanie11111 said...

Previous post was regarding Cramer.

Sat Oct 13, 08:14:00 PM EDT  
Blogger zstock7.com said...

DRIV, looks like a short, can't move above it's 200 day..
zee
COF reports minus 50 cent for Q3 earnings OCT 18th, i give it a 60% chance ( not the best odds),of going down on earnings day

Sat Oct 13, 08:16:00 PM EDT  
Blogger zstock7.com said...

IN Texas Holdem,
DRIV short =
over pair, vs. five seven suited...whereas
COF short = jack,ten suited, against ace , eight
COF gets to $78 / 80 , then short = pocket aces, against five , three off suit...

Sat Oct 13, 08:27:00 PM EDT  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Beanie,

I also do not believe that Cramer understands their products either. He thinks they are a security company. He is waffling a lot lately though.

Steady

Sat Oct 13, 10:16:00 PM EDT  
Blogger beanie11111 said...

Stay away from oil stocks and move to solar stocks.

Sun Oct 14, 12:26:00 AM EDT  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

beannie,

u say VMW is CSCO or GE. I have VMW, and want it to be great but why you say this? is it because you read an article?or u watch a program? c'mon man..... tell us the rationale. i can just read New york times and and go crazy about some bs article.... man... give us a break yo!!!!!!!!! AHAHAHAHH

Sun Oct 14, 07:40:00 AM EDT  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Beanie,
I missed entry into VMW when it was just around 60-70. So I just put my money into YGE, for now YGE has outperformed VMW by at least 20% on MY portfolio when I did a comparison using ipo date of VMW as starting point. Of course I would have nearly doubled my money now if I had VMW.
Do you think YGE will continue climbing, at least short term?
Thanks.

Sun Oct 14, 08:51:00 AM EDT  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Gosu -

Any opinions on DFT & TSON?

Sun Oct 14, 10:57:00 AM EDT  
Blogger beanie11111 said...

sgv,

YGE needs to close positive tomorrow. If not, then it's high probability of consolidating. Then again, hasn't it been doing that lately? lol

YGE is gonna be fine. Buy more on big dips. Or take some off the table on big rises.

Solars will rule.

Sun Oct 14, 12:07:00 PM EDT  
Blogger Gary said...

Beanie,
You've got quite the pump and dump scam going here. LOL

Sun Oct 14, 12:31:00 PM EDT  
Blogger beanie11111 said...

anon,

Regarding VMW.

Many reasons have made me very positive about this particular stock:

- Cramer initially said it could be the next GOOG before the ipo. Cramer is not someone who would make that kind of a claim off the bat.

- EMC kept over 85% of the shares of VMW. Now, why would they do a thing like that?

- Virtualization saves energy and server costs. Every company would like that.

- VMW is riding the same wave as ELON; that is, reducing cost by managing energy usage. You know i love the alternative energy sector. I certainly like these 2 companies because they help reduce energy consumption in the first place.

- Tobin Smith of Changewave Alliance thinks VMW is the best growth stock for the next few years. His initial price target was $110.

- Watch Fidelity. They are no dummies. They've been accumulating lots of VMW in the open market since the company went ipo. That says alot. Why would they do such a thing. Why wouldn't they just buy EMC, as many people have claimed EMC is the better deal???
http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2007/10/12/vmware-fidelity-buys-236-of-the-float/?mod=yahoobarrons


- The IT people are really excited about the reality of virtualization. It is the new frontier in IT.

- I tell ya what. The fact that VMW is trading above $100 tells ya lot. After all, the big boys are the ones driving it up. Why don't they just EMC if it's so undervalued?

- Citrix's Xen Virtulization is so behind VMW's that it's not even competition.

- Microsoft, who is 3-6 years behind in the technology is working their mouths again. Can you say," Hype-Visor"?

- It has been estimated that the market for virtualization will be about $8 billion by 2010. Since VMW owns over 80% market share, we multiply $8 billion by .80 and we get $6.4 billion in potential revenues for VMW (assuming they hold that huge market lead in 2010). That means:

2007 - $1 billion
2008 - $2 billion
2009 - $???
2010 - $6-7 billion

(This is GOOG-like growth!)

At $6 billion annual revenue in 2010, don't you think VMW is worth more than the current $40 billion market cap? It certainly does.

- As long as EMC won't dump all their shares at one time, i suspect the price of VMW will stay high and above $100. The float is too low and there are too much interest in the stock. EMC is no dummy. What you have to ask is why they kept so many VMW shares.

- So there ya have it. Above are most of all the reasons why i think VMW will go higher, to a doubler, tripler or even quadrupler.

Sun Oct 14, 12:36:00 PM EDT  
Blogger beanie11111 said...

gary,

I would like to refer you to Jonathan Lebed if you like pump-n-dumps.

lol

Sun Oct 14, 12:38:00 PM EDT  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I will provide you with a contrarian view for VMW. And yes, I do own it in the retirement account.

Once the buying dries up, what will drive the stock up? There is a lot of hype on VMW and unless that hype is followed by earnings the price will not hold.

It will be interesting to find out whether VMW is the in the Fidelity fund's top 25 holdings.

Lastly, Cramer is a clown.

Sun Oct 14, 02:34:00 PM EDT  
Blogger zstock7.com said...

SHORT GDX at $50,
$53 is the highest possible for 2007, probably happens in DEC
GLD in the process of climbing 15%, so I guess that helps gold stocks 15%, so that helps GDX 15% = 51.76...

QQQQ, not much help. Short at 54.14 = 7% = Q3 eps growth or
55.6 = 10% Q3 eps growth...= pocket aces, move the trucks in

Sun Oct 14, 03:44:00 PM EDT  
Blogger zstock7.com said...

If Reuters really does take over Thompson financial,
then Thompson financial will be 4 times bigger, and Reuters will really change, into a super destination site...
which will help me calculate target prices a whole lot easier...
Zee

Sun Oct 14, 04:10:00 PM EDT  
Blogger zstock7.com said...

Btrader
I raised short price QQQQ, just like you said, i should..thanks
zee

Sun Oct 14, 04:17:00 PM EDT  
Blogger zstock7.com said...

QQQQ
i see 55.6 (short)
and i'm backing in a jupiter moon.
zee

Sun Oct 14, 04:20:00 PM EDT  
Blogger beanie11111 said...

Microsoft is stuck in a rough spot. True virtualization = anti-OS.

Microsoft allows virtualization (to a limited extent)
but Apple does not allow virtualization. That means
you can run Windows on Macs but you cannot run Mac OS
on PCs.

Does Microsoft really want to fight VMWare head-on?
Can they ? What they are most afraid of is Steve Jobs'
Apple OS.

http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20070624-microsoft
s-anti-virtualization-stance-forget-drm-think-apple.htm
l

'Until Steve Jobs allows the virtualization of the Mac
OS, which will happen precisely never, Microsoft's
commodity cash cow could find itself virtualized into
the corner.'

Sun Oct 14, 05:47:00 PM EDT  
Blogger beanie11111 said...

It is a big deal that Apple doesn't allow
virtualization and Microsoft does. If a Mac can run
Windows, more and more users will be migrating to Macs.
( It is already happening, although the bulk of it is
due to the ipods phenomenon.) Yes they would have to
pay Microsoft a licensing fee to use Windows.
(Personally, i find the Mac os better than Windows.)
But now, users get to know the Macintosh and the Mac OS
on a personal basis (and once you go Mac you don't go
back!). As the Mac user base grows in the years ahead,
you don't think Steve Jobs will start chopping off the
legs of Windows on the Macs? You bet he will. As Mac
users grow, the Macs will also go down in price.

That's what i think the article meant when it said that
Microsoft could "virtualize itself into the corner".

Sun Oct 14, 07:36:00 PM EDT  
Blogger gosu said...

Anon -

DFT doesn't do a whole lot for me, it is a pass. TSON I've not had a chance to delve into it yet.

Sun Oct 14, 10:38:00 PM EDT  
Blogger Arun said...

where is the best place to get a dow/s&p futures quote?

Sun Oct 14, 11:14:00 PM EDT  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Beanie-
What are your thoughts on me moving more money from my savings to the stock market. I think tomorrow I will have my Sharebuilder account buy the following stock:
PCU
VMW
FCX
ACH
STV
I have $2500 to invest and I have been following your advice on research of companies etc.. your thoughts.
Thomas-GA

Mon Oct 15, 07:48:00 AM EDT  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

great call, b.

Mon Oct 15, 02:14:00 PM EDT  

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