Will GOOG lead us to the promised land???
Today i mentioned something about the market that doesn't feel right. I now do not think that last Thursday's selloff was for just profit taking. It was on humongous volume. Go check out the QQQQ's on that day to know what i mean.
Today, I recommended everyone to get out of margin completely. In fact, i got out most of my long positions. Today's runup of the nasdaq could be due to anticipation of GOOG announcing blowout earnings. What we got was a limp reaction.
-------------------
YOU HAPPENED TO JUST PASS BY ANOTHER SCHOOL AND YOU SEE SEVERAL CHEERLEADERS HOLDING FIVE LETTERS. GIVE ME A 'B', SAYS ONE.
GIVE ME An 'A', SAYS THE SECOND.
GIVE ME A 'N', SAYS THE THIRD.
GIVE ME A 'K', SAYS THE FOURTH.
And finally,
GIVE ME An 'S' SAYS THE LAST.
FOR SOME UNKNOWN REASON, AS YOU WALK PASS BY THE SCHOOL YOU CAN'T HELP BUT FEEL NUMB AS YOU CONTINUE YOUR PATH HOME....
(continued tomorrow)
Today, I recommended everyone to get out of margin completely. In fact, i got out most of my long positions. Today's runup of the nasdaq could be due to anticipation of GOOG announcing blowout earnings. What we got was a limp reaction.
-------------------
YOU HAPPENED TO JUST PASS BY ANOTHER SCHOOL AND YOU SEE SEVERAL CHEERLEADERS HOLDING FIVE LETTERS. GIVE ME A 'B', SAYS ONE.
GIVE ME An 'A', SAYS THE SECOND.
GIVE ME A 'N', SAYS THE THIRD.
GIVE ME A 'K', SAYS THE FOURTH.
And finally,
GIVE ME An 'S' SAYS THE LAST.
FOR SOME UNKNOWN REASON, AS YOU WALK PASS BY THE SCHOOL YOU CAN'T HELP BUT FEEL NUMB AS YOU CONTINUE YOUR PATH HOME....
(continued tomorrow)
posted by beanie11111 | 8:33 PM
116 Comments:
Quick question, anyone:
What happens to my GOOG Oct 640 calls tomorrow? I'm in the money by a few dollars as of AH tonight. Please, any insight?
thanks
It will be vaporized. Everybody expected the stock to move 50-70 dollars either way. So much of the volatility is placed into the calls you paid for. With a limp reaction, most of the calls and puts will be destroyed. Everybody on both sides loses. The people who played the straddle or strangles will get killed. EVERYBODY LOSES, as it stands right now.
NTRI reports next Wednesday...as a swing position...it should run into earnings (even though it preannounced)...i like it below $30
im fully invested in sndk at $49 hoping for massive upgrades tomorrow (although thats hard cause price targets are in the $58-65 range)
GOOG disappointed but i dont think it will crash the markets or NDX(even it it trades red)
every bad news has been thrown at us this week and we trade lower but rally every close...and with options ex tomorrow...i think we'll finally get a solid green half percent gain.
next week will be a different story
the upgrades have started to roll in
isrg to $300 from DB
awaiting targets on sndk, goog, and amd
LUNA on ISRG keep on radar
does anyone have ISRG...they had blowout earnings today...
is it ok to buy now tomorrow?
sndk got a downgrade to 45
sucks
GOOG upgraded to 775 by citigroup
jesus...its going green tomorrow
Im what you would call screwed on my GOOG Oct 640 calls tomorrow...
beannie - so you're telling us that you dumped all the solars and baidu and vmw and everything you've touted as a long term investment?
TV GOOG beat street by (3.7%) q3
3.7% x 4 (QUARTERS) = 14.8%
15.33= 07 eps estimate , [now add in 3.7% + 4 quarters = 14.8%] TO 15.33 and that
= 17.59 = new 07 EPS estimate
now multiply 44.9 earnings growth 07 times 17.59 = ( new 07 estimate)
and I get $789
C wrong by $14...it's not $775, its $789
zee
big bob,
Yes, just temporarily. But rest assured, i won't let them leave without me. For you slow folks who don't wear ninja underwears, you can keep your shares. Just no margin, that's all.
The main point of yesterday's craziness was to warn you folks not to be margined. I still want you in the game.
Rest assured, all the stocks i gave you will soar much higher by this time next year.
SO ARUN
your OCT call might expire worth $6,000= GOOG at 700
$14,000 = GOOG at 780
good luck with that, 50/50
zee
What i find interesting is why they didn't up GOOG's target to 775 after earnings. It's an easy thing to do.
I wonder if they're trying to trap the longs while they dump the market on Friday.
BEN talks tomorrow, so lets hope dow up 200
zee
yikes! the futures are down 70 at 10:45 left coast time.
z-stock,
would be nice for that GOOG call. I have Oct. 07, not 08.. no way GOOG is going to $700 tomorrow. Just not happening.
TimmyBear blog is moving up and replacing engadget.com .
Vote for TG!!!
http://bloggerchoiceawards.com/categories/21
crap, i better start voting. i read engadget as much as beanie.
OptionsAddica and Timmybear blogs are having people vote many times. TimmyBear jumped 50% in two days!!!
I don't want those dudes to win. I need you to vote for TradingGoddess.
Friday is 11:55 pm is where it all ends.
I had ISRG at 224. I might sell at end of day Friday.
midnight in the west and futures now down 75. could we be in store for major ugliness on fri (10/19)?
Beanz - you got everyone totally confused here especially me. lol
Pamfla
pamfla,
Just don't go on margin and all will eventually be ok.
STV profit/growth better then Bidu.
Also when Bidu was in the 40s pe was over 900. STV has a pe around 97. STV will move like bidu shortly.
might not be gecscrewed in my goog options after all
RBC just raised APPL
What is so good about STP - I really want to short it already! Going up every day!
Arun,
I think you should get out quickly.
GOOG may be red sometimes today IMO.
Austin.
wow.. was actually able to get out of my GOOG oct 640 calls for a +$1000 gain. not too shabby all things considered.
sold them at 16.50.. now they are $12ish
Well done Arun.
Beanie11111
Nice call once again
Good time to pick up some HANS?
Beanie, is this what you predicted yesterday for us to be cautious?
Austin.
YOU GETTIN REALLY SCARED NOW AND WALKING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARDS HOME. YOU ARE SHAKING AND ALMOST LOST YOUR BALANCE BECAUSE WHAT YOU FEAR MOST APPEARS IMMINENT.
Please do not use margin on the long side. Pleaseeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
You better not get margined into the weekend. I pray for you if you do.
Beanie,
Do you think sell off will continue next week?
Thanks
May i interest you in some FCX nov 90 puts @ .75 or less?
dimitry,
Let's see how it closes. But i think so.
kids, this is the "sell before bernake speaks" ,and cover during or after he speaks, trade.
Had they not upgraded GOOG this morning, the market would have dipped twice as much, imo.
Beanie,
Do you still think we will see VMW run to 120 before earnings?
Dimitry
So will I be expecting that cheeseburger from you beanie?
VMW @ 120 by earnings.
this is some of the dumbest stuff i have ever seen posted here.
if the bears dont have it today...with the credit crunch, $90 oil, gold up, Turkey, Iran, and the frakkin 20th anny of the crash... THEN THEY DONT HAVE IT AT ALL>
DOW 16k.
VMW:
i sure hope 120 before earnings, but it may have to wait till after. Remember that the general market comes first. If the market is bad, upside for VMW is limited.
thank you boomer!
gotta remember these things for next year
september 11: market rallies
october 19: market crashes
the bottom is in.
STV closing below 40, gap is filled.
That gap needs to be filled!
I am really getting worried about STV? Is it time to sell or just hang on to it..!!
watch goog. if there is a recovery it starts with goog.
Beanie,
Great calls this week!
Playing QID and TWM, making $$$.
Got out of AAPL with a nice profit.
Don't fight the trend.
Buddy
careful if you are into TASR..
Amnesty Int just called for a ban on Tasers... never work, but will prob hit the stock more...
STV going back to $42 today
NOW YOU'RE STARTIN TO PRAY YOU MAMA COMES AND PICKS YOU UP HALFWAY HOME. YOU ARE COLD, SHAKING, AND SCARED OUT OF YOUR WITS. YOUR HANDS AND KNEES ARE TREMBLING MORE AND MORE. YOU PRAY. YOU PRAY. YOU PRAY YOUR SAVIOR COMES.....
(continued)
hmmm..
I hope so too... just bought some STV
c
Looks like MS strategy of talking down HK stocks after the HK market close on Thurday Hong Kong time are working on schedule.
Here in the US, after the market close yesterday Warren Buffet spoke on Fox, laughing at the values of Chinese stocks. Furthermore, the bearish sentiment was beginning to rise as the market went no where but down the whole week, which is quite unusal on option exp. week.
As a result, next week could be bloody.
beanie does have a CORRECT "errie feeling" about the market. salute him !!
---------------------------
Thu Oct 18, 11:15:00 AM EDT
beanie11111 said...
YOU FOLKS HAVE TO STAY ALERT AND BE CAREFUL. PLEASE GET OUT OF MARGIN. YOU ARE NOW A TEENAGE NERD WHO IS WALKING TO SCHOOL ON YOUR OWN. YOU LOOK LEFT AND YOU LOOK RIGHT. YOU JUST HAVE AN EERIE FEELING THAT SOME BULLY IS GONNA SMACK YOU FROM BEHIND. YOU DON'T SEE ANYONE BUT YOU FEEL HE'S COMING.....
QQQQ @ 52.70 is a BUY!
Looking for the next leader that isn't 1000/share?
take a look at CELL
Where's that dumbshit "Mr. Anon"?
LOL!!!
Hey dumbshit, come out of your hole and quit being a little bitch! Take your losses like a man!
LOL!!!
mr. Anon may be praying for the market to skyrocket later so he can go kick Beanie in the arse...
FEAR AND GREED DRIVE THE MARKET.
BEANIE PUMPING SOLAR AND VMW SO YOU JUMP ON THINKING IT'S A FREE RIDE TO THE MOON.
YOU GOT GREEDY!!!
NOW BEANIE GOES INTO REVERSE AND YOU HAVE FEAR IN YOUR EYES.
TAKES BALLS BE BUYING TODAY.
I DON'T THINK WE CRASH ON MONDAY BECAUSE EVERYONE EXPECTS IT TO. BUT IT WILL BE INTERTESTING.
YOU WANT TO BE IN THE MARKET COMING OUT OF OCT!
WHY DOES BEANIE NOT ACKNOWLEDGE HE LOST HIS CHEESEBURGER?
fortune8,
Are you, "Mr. Anon"?
mr anon is crying in his beer no doubt
Hey folks, nasdaq 2750 is support. Let's see how the day ends. You certainly do not want it to close below 2750, or even slightly above 2750. You want way above it.
The big boys knew. That's why they propped up GOOG this morning to prevent the tech slaughter.
I don't know what they have in store for us for next week. But if i were a spider, the tingling sensation is zapping me crazy.
Beanie, is STV a buy here?
Why would I be Mr. Anon if I sign as fortune8?
I have always been fortune8!
buying lots of stv here for a trade to 43 bucks by tuesday
How's your arsehole doing Mr. Anon? LOL I bet you won't be sitting for weeks! HAHA!
For those who like SOLARS.
Lazard Gets More Bullish on Solar (STP, SPWR)
Sanjay Shrestha, Managing Director and Senior Analyst of Alternative Energy & Industrials at Lazard Capital Markets has maintained his positive stance on solar companies. Suntech is scheduled to report 3Q07 results on November 15. Suntech Power Holdings, (NYSE:STP) was reiterated as a "Buy" rating, but the price target was raised from $45 to $55 in the news coverage. It also raised estimates following the recent wafer contract announcement that validates longer-term contracts and reflects the competitive advantage of its scale on a global basis. On Suntech, Shrestha adds, "We would not be surprised to see additional silicon contract announcements from various suppliers including credible Chinese players, as we believe Suntech's scale provides the company with excellent procurement leverage.... We believe the company is likely to exceed both top- and bottom-line expectations. However, gross margin could remain flat to slightly down, as Suntech has remained focused on its strategy of building scale rather than maximizing near-term margins." Suntech's new 2009 estimates by Lazard have moved from $1.80 EPS and $2 Billion sales to $2.20 EPS and $2.33 Billion.
On SunPower (NASDAQ:SPWR), Shrestha reiterated a BUY rating after its earnings: Reported revenues and operating EPS were $234.4 million and $0.33 ($0.03 was interest income), vs. Lazard's estimates of $210 million and $0.28, respectively. Systems revenues were $157.7 million and component revenues totaled $76.6 million. Gross margins were 20.4%, down from 23% in 2Q07 and below Lazard's expectation of 21.7%. SunPower modestly increased 2008 guidance and also increased its nameplate production capacity. Lazard modestly boosted estimates for 2007 to 2009 and introduced 2010 estimates at $4.20 EPS and $2.45 Billion revenues, and raised the price target on the stock from $80 to $105 in the research note.
Shrestha concludes, "Given inherent volatility in the sector, and recent appreciation, we encourage buying on weakness."
The 200 point down market isn't exactly helping solar investors out today, at least they haven't held the all-time highs put in right after the open: SunPower Corp. (SPWR) shares are down 2% at $94.92, although the intraday high was a new all-time high of $98.17; Suntech Power (NYSE:STP) shares are down 0.5% at $46.46, although $47.00 is the all-time high before an intraday high of $48.00 today.
Jon C. Ogg
October 19, 2007
I am here to keep people calm.
I don't BULLSHIT or BEARSHIT.
Looks like beanie is either EXTREME BULL or EXTREME BEAR.
Look at the sentiment. A few weeks ago people were jumping for joy. Now people are scared shitless.
fortune8 you need to post your trades in real time like zee if you expect to get any respect around here.
Sue
fortune,
It's ok to be extreme bullish and bearish. Those who followed me in with the solars (and many others) are sittin pretty. And if they left with me yesterday (extreme bearish) they still get to keep all their gains and still sittin very pretty.
hot hot, we rock!
The market is dynamic. When things change we got to go with the flow. But if you are a buy and holder for a few years, you need not to worry about the market gyrations. But if you want to take advantage of short and intermediate term gyrations, then you might care and jump on and off the train with me.
You DA MAN Beanie!!!
GOOG can hold the techs up today, but if we sell off next week, it won't be able to.
One more thing.
You still made money by listening to beanie if you had bought VMW @ 91.
I remember because that is where I sold half looking for 88.
STV is tempting but has a huge spread. You lose money right out the gate.
fortune8 the reason I'm concerned you may be "Mr. Anon" is because you sound exactly like him always bullish and saying we should be buying and not be worried. I'm still suspicious.
Sue
Sue,
I am no Z. I am actually learning from Z.
PTR is a short
237.4
Buffet sold and laughing at china bubble.
I think the beginning of the end for oils are here. You can short pretty much any oil stock or index.
You can buy Nov puts on PTR. Blowoff top.
Does anyone know what time Ben speaks? I don't watch CNBC anymore.
I think he already spoke, no?
1 Hour ago..
"Bernanke didn't talk specifically about the current state of the economy or the future direction of interest rates in the United States.
The Fed meets next on Oct. 30-31. Some economists believe the central bank will lower rates again at that time. But others think the Fed might leave rates alone."
Ow!! Ow!! Ow!!! Mr. Anon's arsehole is on fire!! OW!!! LMAO!!
BEANIE GET US OUT OF THE DARK !!! LOL :)
Direct from Goldman:
We advise investors to buy Google with 25% upside to our new year-end 2008 price target of $800 versus our old year-end 2007 target of $620. We are raising our 2008/2009 EPS estimates by 7%/10% to $22.20/$28.00 and believe that continued revenue and profit outperformance will drive Street estimates and valuations higher. 3Q revenue and OI outperformed by 2.5% and 3.4%, with revenue growth of 61% and profit growth of 48%, more than supporting our view for a 2009-2012 EPS CAGR of 18%-20%. Notably, affiliate growth accelerated to 32% yoy growth from 17% in 2Q, while O&O also outperformed, growing 66% yoy.
Bears have run out of juice:
Oil to 90
Gold over $700
Dollar in pooper
Credit crunch
Commercial paper
Housing bubble
War in Iraq
20th anny of 87
Britney in rehab
Britney out of rehab
I am putting cash to work.
NED is a buy at this price..!! Get in..!!
Beanie,
Can you please comment on STV? I did selloff many of my stocks but not STV yesterday. Should we keep holding now as we didn't get out yesterday? Will it go up? What's your opinion for long term - 1 year? Thanks.
I covered all my short and went long AAPL, RIMM and VMW for a trade.
I sold LDK now with a loss - could not stand this:
The brokerage (Goldman Sachs) started coverage of LDK Solar Co (LDK.N: Quote, Profile, Research) with a "sell" rating and a price target of $33.
Will hold APPL into earnings Monday.
Beanie... Can you post your clear comments on STV? Should I add more at a lower price or just hang on..!!
Judgement Day: 8 days
I now put the probability of a severe correction at 70% between those 8 trading days.
I put the probability of a CRASH by the 8th trading day at 50-50. It may not sound like a high number, but it is.
Put this in your long term investment list.
MDR, FWLT, KBR, JEC
"Beanie likes to keep his trap shut when he is proven wrong. Just a minor dip in the indexes on a strong oil close. We headed higher and Beanie's reputation headed lower (is that even possible?).
Mr. Anon"
LMFAO
trashcan,
STV will go down if the market continues sinking. ALmost everything will go down as well. If you can sell it and get it at a lower price, then you have saved yourself some money (like i did with Geico.)
we are resting at the close of the huge gap up day
this is major support
if we break this, we could be heading towards spx 1490 by tuesday
highly unlikely IMO
I like STV under 40 but I am scared of China.
If China tanks, it will be hard for STV to stay above water.
Looks like Mr. Anon is back.
don't panic people, your STV will be back up in 4 days, it was at $55 only a week ago. Needed to come down from that monster run before it takes off again. Can you wait 4 days? That is the question.
CFC, the larget mortgage lender in the US, is once again flirting at $15, the 52 week low. It could break down big time if the market tanks next week.
I am seeing bears holding a lot of "good" cards to play with in the coming weeks.
hey tv?
Are you still in that POS - SNDK?
I cannot believe I bought into that as well. Got too greedy.
what does everyone think of AMD?
is anybody out there into ZOLT -wind power?
i got out some in premarket but im stuck in some of it
i dont want to talk about it
worst trading mistake since i mishandled GRMN on October 1st
hopefully i can sell that shit at 47 within 2 weeks
October 19th -- Don't Be Scared
http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2007/10/october-19th---.html
Beanie, when speaking about those 8 days of correction, which day do you implying was first?
Anyone understood that?
Can someone PLEASE teach me how to check if other people are shorting a stock? Is there a way to tell?
It would be GREATLY appreciated!
Thanks
How's that STV buy treatin' ya TV?
(LOL)
Beanie you called this sell off perfectly. Amazing.
Beanie,
If a CRASH were to happen, do you still believe we run in Nov & Dec?
It would seem hard to believe we would have enough time to crash and rebound hard between now and 12/31.
I got my a** kicked, SNDK options plus everything else, should have listened to you, I actually thought someone stole your ID yesterday.
Dan
Dan, We would save more money if Mr. Anon didn't invade Beanie's side yesterday. Luckily, I just saved myself ontime.
Austin.
Mr. Anon has probably lost every nickel he had today.
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