The last few years have been great to me, as i was able to clobber the S&P500 many times in returns. But of course, you can't make a living trading the markets if you don't make great great returns. I'll try to give my readers trades that i think will make them money. However, you need to have money management skills, in order not to lose everything on a greedy or stupid trade. I may or may not already be in the trades i recommend. I may or may not trade the stocks i recommend. Due diligence is required on your part and the usual disclaimer that i am not responsible for your losses always apply. I have no affiliations with any broker/dealer and all posts are for educational purposes only. Remember to 'refresh' the home page and the "Comments" pages frequently in order to receive updated posts. Let's rock!
posted by beanie11111 | 8:05 AM
120 Comments:
CSUN is flying premarket.
If you are a momo trader, check out NINE
Michael Krause
After the recent runup in so many China names, I figured I'd do a little basic analysis to see how this China Digital TV Holding (STV) IPO sizes up. Initial conclusion: price target of $80-$100.
Why?
STV sells the smart cards that set permissions/etc for digital cable TV users. According to the prospectus, 139 households in China subscribe to cable TV. China has a target for 2015 for the entire market to be migrated to digital TV. In total of 2007, they should ship more than 6 million smart cards. They own 45% of their market.
To the numbers: They earned $12.2 million for 6 months ended Jun 30 07, versus $3.4 million for 6 months ended Jun 30 2006. Lets be conservative and assume they earn $30 million for 2007 total. Total outstanding shares are 56 million.
30/56 = .53 per share for full year 2007. 29.50 share price / .53 = 2007 PE of 55, implying a 55% growth rate is necessary to sustain this price to fair value. For 2008, lets assume they double that (100% projection) to $60m earnings, 60/56 = 1.07 per share earnings. 29.50/1.07 = 27.57, priced right now for a 27% growth rate !!!
But last y/y numbers are 400%. A 100% annual growth number is actually pretty realistic and conservative in the face of this. So with a 100 multiple on 08 numbers, I think $80-$100 price target is doable.
I just thought this might be a worthwhile analysis in the face of speculative stocks like China Natural Resources (CHNR) or China Precision Steel (CPSL) (CHNR: annual growth rate of 10%, but it gets a much higher multiple).
Yes but CHNR is flying. As a momo trader, who cares about fundamental.
Does Michael Krause read this blog?? lol
STV to da moon -100!
Our CSUN calls should now be profitable. CSUN could be the next YGE.
Beanie is a beast! How did you know that CSUN will released such great news like yesterday? I wished I listened to you and bought those CSUN calls.
Now I know why you destroy the S&P every year. You are amazing.
Beanie the Beast! Beanie my daddy.
I got out of CHNR at $40 this morning. Left a lot of money on the table. Need CSUN to make this up!
bdi exploded way over 10000
covered in the 116s
bad loss but 120-126 its going today
AA even missed earning looks like it will be up today. Amazing.
STV:
a $100 stock selling at 54.
whoo hoo!
Focus on STV!
And milk it for all it's got!
Beanie,
I made my mistake with MA and VMW. Bought early then trade and then got stopped out only to see it doubled.
I am not making that mistake with STV. In since Beanie recommended it and will hold til 100, or if things changed.
Let's have a core position (that we don't sell until 99, in which case you sell 1/2 and ride the rest). Any big dips to support levels, we buy for a swing trade with extra money.
Thanks for the advise Beanie. That's what I plan on doing.
do we add to our lottery ticket here?
NINE looking great! Buy Buy Buy!
Look at CSUN.
Congrats to all that bought the dip on STV this morning. You guys are awesome trader, Beanie? TV?
I didn't.
Beanie,
What is happening to YGE and TSL they are not going anywhere?
TV107:
I'm glad you covered. BDI up 358 points today! Amazing. All dry bulk shippers are going to run today. DRYS will run the most because they are a spot shipper, meaning that there prices fluctuate with the BDI. With BDI being up 358 points, I can see DRYS up another 8% today. Just unreal!
Go long and you will be rewarded. I like DRYS and EXM the most. Then DSX, QMAR and EGLE.
Peter,
NINE going to NINE.
Big China Stock Movers (NINE)(CSUN)(CHNR), But Watch For 50% Correction
Some of these stocks are going to correct 50%. It's just a question of when. Their valuations on any sane metric are out of line.
market can easily crash 1.5% today
hope it does
that stv drop to 48 was so fast
i had too many psoitions and couldnt execute
some stocks have yet to fall: flr, fwlt
time for those to get a beat down in a swing trade
Today is the much needed consolidation day for STV. Let's see where it trades near the close.
I really love this stock, VMW
theres the 120 for drys
Left a lot of money on the table in CHNR. NINE to NINE.
AAPL taking a breather, 200 by end of year.
for MON to go positive...that is crazy sick
it traded below 83 on initial reaction
looks like all the volatility is gone, especially in LDK.
this is boring.
kicking self for selling VMW.
NINE is exploding! Over 31% today....
initiating 5% trailing stop on NINE...
Remember the high flyer RMBS?
Nasdaq now green. Come on APPL and STV!
48 should hold on STV.
I hope you all have a position as of now.
NMSS, wireless china play at 2 mobile conferences in CHina next 2 weeks.
$1.35-40 add consideration zone with $1.50 and $1.75 scalp targets. Chart
been basing recently. NMSS does mobile TV in CHina per deal announced in
2006
http://www.nmscommunications.com/News/NMSintheNews/Items/03_06_3GNewsroom.htm
This is the link to the mobile conferences in China next two weeks, Oct
18th and Oct 22.
http://www.nmscommunications.com/News/Events/Events/PTEXPOCOMMCHINA.htm
With the China hype in mkt right now NMSS could be ripe for a nice move.
SMALL play as it is thinly traded. Support $1.30.
Look at CHNR
i think with drys 116 and 126 are 50-50 as next targets
MGM cracked 100 for first time ever
Common Solars... FSLR languishing. Should have swapped it out for more VMW
Beanie,
Should i add more on YGE?
oooze,
Too soon. Short term, the trend is down. Wait a little longer.
Time to short BA...right now.
GOOG is an absolute monster! $700 already a foregone conclusion.
NINE to NINE
shocker!
LDK is holding.
Someone knows something or is just sitting on the sidelines?
the shippers feel apart
gnk, drys, tbsi
i made money
i should have made so much more
damn!
VMW should see close to 120 before earnings.
ANyone wanna bet a cheeseburger?
HANS, the next coke, is headed higher. One of the best stocks for your IRA, is my opinion.
I have to admit, this is getting annoying. I apologize to all that can't put me on ignore but...
NINE to NINE.
One of these days I will grow up. Maybe when APPL hits 200 and STV hits 100.
Down day, and I need to put some cash to work. So what's on the Buy list for today?
STV under $50 looks good.
What about TSL, FSLR, SPWR, YGE ?
What about TSSP? Is that story over?
GBT (ABAT)?
ldk got a midday contract...it will close strong imo
held back because market is collapsing
sitting on the sidelines here
we are on critical level of 1555 on SPX
lets see if we finally finally break down
Im now short YGE JASO and CSUN, CSUN I have no understanding of why its above 10, but its very hard to borrow, and prob in a major short squeeze. Puts are very pricy because so hard to short, so I had to pay up for them.
These wont be easy trades, but I have loads of profits in solars, so I can give these some room.
The only name I wont short is FSLR, I still believe that has more upside to 150 or even 200 by end of the year, but for now Im looking for a dip to add at a better entry.
Also own some WFR.
Not sure shorting these are the right ideas for most, but probably makes sense to be on the sidelines now to see how the JASO prices, and how LDK story unfolds.
West
Beanie,
I have have some YGE with no loss no profit situation. Should I get out it? Do you think it will up in short term?
I’m buying WAG, ahead of HOT HOT FRI RETAIL...NOV 37.5 looks good, and if WAG is ever going to reach $41, that would be the day..
I wouldn’t short FWLT ahead of bullish oil report, delayed till Thursday
YGE really wants to retest $25 ish , i think...
Maybe overnight, HSI, gets hurt a little, by AA, and YGE comes in gapped down
im not hitting fills at all today
what a disaster
beanie,
I will gladly pay you a cheeseburger to see VMW at 120 by earnings.
If not the burger is on you.
West - appreciate your solar thoughts, you've been on top of this sector for awhile now.
If you recall, I suggested buying SEED. Today it's leaving a big gap, way outside the B Bands, so I took profits today... had 15K shares at 7.
Long term, 21, pullback I buy back in the high 8s.
I have a 87 and 88.6 short target for IBB, still not there,
MAR, testing support 40 /41..its a buy, tomorrow, ahead of Fridays hot hot retail report
NYX failure at the 200 day, NYX is really out of favor, these days..
WFMI, i told you so, shorts 41 and 2
I think you mean 51/52.
BTW, that is another check box for Z
VMW keeps blasting off..
GO VMW!!!!
the VMW monster has awoken from its afternoon siesta
Needham upgrading LDK saying concerns unwarranted, gutsy call there, covered some solar shorts on that.
West
SCP = coal index, double top at $330, probably fails
STQ = steel index , double top, 604, probably fails
VIX hit the 200 day yesterday, it’s up 5% today...this could be the beginning of a lot of volitility
So buy VIX at 16 / 16.5 = good
beannie
is it too late to get into VMW?
why is it doing well?
i don't understand. after 120 what do you see VMW headed?
unreal turnaround
just unreal
Is it too late to get in STV? I wish I got them at 30ish. LOL
Z What is your target on WFMI?
TV forget what i said about inventory, and FWLT, FLR. 50/50, which for those two is good...
XLE is too high, right now..
Im shorting UPL,now
APA,NFX, very close
INT = fuel for shipping at 200 day, short now...
SHOULD I STILL BUY VMW AND STV?
bEannie!!!!!
help!!!!!!!11
anon
all my shorts are in and out, nothing it seems goes down two days in a row
but just short the price channel
now that you know the OCT top WFMI, you can work the price channel
Z WFMI price channel meaning?
yesterdays close on SPY is resistance
time to go short
LOVE IT
the volatility is back!!!!
lets hope it keeps it up
got down so much in the morning and just went positive to keep my daily winning streak alive
now i can afford lunch
traded most shares since 6/13/07 to make it back
QID, buy target = 35.8...35.86 today low
CME and NYX, look finished
Speculation
Try to get the
CME OCT 590 put 1.30 CME , buy back CME retest of $600
WFMI
53.6 down to 50 = $3.3
now wait for up 1.65 (50% comback)= 51.65...short at that price...
and if keeps going higher then 52.5, go for it..
if you see a retest of 53.6
back in the truck
zee
WFMI
more than likely bumps up FRI, cause of retail report +06%, which is just what everyone wants to hear,
so look for retail stocks to rally FRI...
that is probably the next op, to short WFMI...eod, FRI.
zee
Buy CML today and you will thank me tomorrow!
West
TY Z.
If VMW impresses with earnings on the 24th, you can pretty bet your garbanzo beans that it's headed straight to $200.
I own alot of VMW, but will buy a little of put options to hedge in case earnings disappoint.
Hurray for VMW! It may in fact be the next GOOG.
West,
What's your info on CML? Just following momentum after today much like STV?
VMW:
go Cramer go! I love ya man!
http://www.thestreet.com/video/index.html?clipId=1373_10383764&channel=Cramer+On+Demand&cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=&cm_ite=#10383764
buy buy buy!!
If you like VMW, go buy VMW. No more backdoor EMC, ok?
VMW my biggest winner of the year (except for of course DRYS)!!
Cramer's video is interesting. But as Beanie said, but the spinoff not the spinner. (Opposite of what Cramer said). Although he agrees VMW is a monster and will continue to be one.
sorry, *BUY the spinoff, not the spinner.
unreal price on BIDU
anyone know why it went up?
because it's going to 1000!
man...this SEED is trading heavily in after hours
whoo hoooOO!
VMW has now been promoted to Cramer's 4 Horsemen (knocking off AMZN).
Guess what? VMW is going to $200!!!!
No need to hedge your position. It's only for me because i have so much of my portfolio in this stock that i want to preserve the profits in the 1 out of 10 chance that they disappoint.
Bidu ranked 3rd on global search (5%). Goog ranked 1st at 60%. Now thats only china, people who read simplified chinese.., imagine if Bidu expanded...
Attention VMW minions! Attack www.motleyfool.com with your emails stating how disappointed you are in their assessment of VMW! They are saying VMW is ahead of itself....
Read here:
http://tinyurl.com/2uom7s
respond there with fury!
Beanie,
What are the ramifications of this iyho?
"VMware's market cap is also nearing that of EMC, which has a capitalization of $47.4 billion. Earlier Tuesday, Pacific Crest analyst Brent Bracelin suggested in a research note that the closing gap between the two stocks could elicit buying interest in EMC to unlock what he contends is the market's discounting of EMC's stake in VMware."
peter,
i think both EMC and VMW goes higher.
But i don't own EMC. It's VMW's business that i like, so i but VMW. I don't like the backdoor EMC nonsense. What if EMC decides to dump 10-30% of VMW? Both stocks will sink but VMW should recover. EMC, because it only gets a 1 time benefit, may not recover.
Since EMC owns an 86 percent stake in the VMW, the question becomes when will EMC sell its stake? What will be the clues to the time table that will happen?
short bidu after hours on jim cramers bogus 750 GOOG target...although he's probably right
what kind of moron or computer program pays 633 for good after hours
SEED SWEET!!!!
SEED closed strong looking for gap up on that one. Now lifting strong in AHs.
Bot 1000 @ 9.40
Sold 1000 @ 13.40
Congratulations Gosu! I wish I got into SEED like you did. I'm the anon guy who keeps pumping SSTR. What a loser I am!
tv107 your income tax must be a nightmare!!!!
VMW:
Get ready for a fast and furious ride to $150 right after earnings.
beanie... owned vmw since 90.60...unfortunatly, I hedged by writing an october 95.00 call, already in the money. Think I should buy back immediatly or wait for some kind of dip....thx..ski.
ski,
No reason to hedge in this market, unless you're so overloaded with the stock or is on margin.
Beanie, I got an aching boner in my pants. Could you please use your sweet little lips and take care of it for me again?
OHHHHHHHHHHHHHH God Beanie, keep sucking that shit! You're a pro!
That's right, Beans...keep licking my ass crack you cute little fag!
You like it when I splooge all over your face and back don't you, you naughty little piece of shit.
Fuckin' aye Beanie, I said suck it, not eat it. Too much teeth.
Goddamn it Beanie, I'm going to have to cock slap you and give you another black eye if you don't stop crying.
Sold more SEED over $14 in AH's and taking my 40% off the table. Also started adding QID today.
Remember what Barnard Baruch said back in 1929..."When your barber starts giving you stock tips it's time to exit the stock market".
LOL!
Don't be so bearish with the markets. We are nowhere near the top yet.
The top is near is when your own mother, brothers and sisters want to invest in the markets. It's been true throughout the beginnings when there was a stock market. It will be true into the future. Right now, your own freakin family is scared of the markets. They try to discourage anyone to buy stocks. If you are a daytrader and wanted to buy a house, the underwriters look at you like you're some idiot cockroach about to blow your brains out. SO NO, WE ARE NOT EVEN CLOSE TO THE TOP. You will know when we get there, when your own family loves ya for making so much money and your banker loves ya for being such a market star.
You will know. The time is not here yet.
No doubt we will get occasional corrections along the way, but the trend is still up and we got a few year left.
Beanie,
dying to know at least where you're from or where you live now.. strictly a daytrader? any other business ventures?
Arun,
I am strictly a full-time daytrader/investor, living in the USA. No other business ventures. To me, the stock market is the best business venture there is. I get to compete with the brightest minds on the planet. I find no better joy in terms of a "career" than participating in the markets full time. I enjoy it every second of every day. Incidentally, and of no surprise, i enjoy weekdays more than i enjoy weekends.
Btw, our CSUN calls doubled today. Always good to sell 1/2 on options that have doubled.
Do you all own STV yet?
In 2 weeks, you'd probably wish you had.
this is hot
on google search, my blog shows up
here's link
http://www.google.com/search?q=q3+eps+estimate+XLE&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&aq=t&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a
zee
beannie, be careful on all longs
VIX hit 200 day, and i think that means something, IMPORTANT!!!
maybe yesterday was the top, and it is just trying to sneak by everyone, un-noticed...
i'm optimistically bullish, but before the august correction from 14000 to 12600, i was starting to hear people talk about buying stocks who had never talked about it before. no doubt these same people are likely scared shitless now. and no, it wasn't the guy who scrubs the pubes off the urinal in my office.
any guess where STV will finish off the day?
Beanie, can you please rationalize your STV valuation? I own the stock ---been long since $31, but want to know why you think it's a 100 stock.
numbers please.
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