AVNR is the next DNDN?
AVNR closed @ 5.19
Volume today on a successful study result was humongous - over 80 million shares traded, 2x the outstanding shares! That kind of volume we saw with DNDN after a positive fda review. I don't know what's really going on in terms of who's buying who's selling or who cares about this company, but i do know that 80 million shares trades is significant. As such, i put in a play with June 10 calls and see what happens.
Last year, Cramer recommended this stock at 12. His listeners hated him for that one. lol
Very speculative play, all or nothin.
Volume today on a successful study result was humongous - over 80 million shares traded, 2x the outstanding shares! That kind of volume we saw with DNDN after a positive fda review. I don't know what's really going on in terms of who's buying who's selling or who cares about this company, but i do know that 80 million shares trades is significant. As such, i put in a play with June 10 calls and see what happens.
Last year, Cramer recommended this stock at 12. His listeners hated him for that one. lol
Very speculative play, all or nothin.
posted by beanie11111 | 11:06 PM
88 Comments:
Got this from the AVNR message board:
''PLAYING IN THE MAJORS'
AVANIR - IT JUST GOT LISTED ON THE NASDAQ TODAY! AND I THINK THAT'S A GREEN LIGHT FOR YOU TO BUY THE STOCK!
THIS THING WAS KIND OF LOST IN A REGULATORY LIMBO. AVNR IS A STATELESS CO. THAT JUST GOT ITS PAPERS!
I'M NOT TELLING YOU TO LOOK AT A CO. JUST BECAUSE IT GOT SOME LEGITIMACY, NOW THAT IT'S OUT OF LIMBO, AND ON THE NASDAQ.
THIS THING IS SEXY. IT HAD CAUGHT MY ATTENTION BEFORE TODAY, BUT I WASN'T GOING TO TOUCH IT UNTIL IT MADE THE MOVE FROM THE AMEX. CRAMER BELIEVES IN CAUTION MORE THAN ANYTHING ELSE, EXCEPT FOR FLEXIBILITY, MAKING MONEY, AND JUSTICE!
NOW, I LIKE AVNR BECAUSE IT'S GOT SOME REALLY COOL DRUG FORMULATIONS THAT THE FDA HAS GIVEN PRIORITY REVIEW TO. AND, HEY, AS FAR AS I KNOW, THEY DIDN'T EVEN HAVE TO PULL ANY STRINGS TO GET PRIORITY STATUS.
THE ONLY THING BETTER THAN PULL INSIDE THE GOVT IS A CO. THAT HAS PRODUCTS WHICH ARE SO GOOD THEY DON'T NEED THE PULL.
HERE'S THE SKINNY ON AVNR:
NOW, AVNR'S BIG PRODUCT IS CALLED 'NEURODEX'. IT TREATS PSEUDOBULBAR AFFECT (PBA). NEURODEX WOULD TREAT THE IEED CONDITION, OR INVOLUNTARY EMOTIONAL EXPRESSION DISORDER, OR UNCONTROLLABLE BURSTS OF LAUGHING OR CRYING.
THE GUYS AT LEERING-SWAN ESTIMATE THAT 1.3 MILLION PEOPLE IN THE U.S. HAVE THIS PBA. IF THEY PENETRATE ONLY HALF THAT MARKET, NEURODEX SHOULD BE ABLE TO DO $250 MILLION IN SALES.
THE FDA GAVE NEURODEX PRIORITY REVIEW STATUS LAST WEEK, WHICH MEANS IT COULD BE APPROVED BY THE END OF THE THIRD QTR. - IT'S FAST TRACKED.
PLUS, IF APPROVED, NEURODEX COULD GET 'ORPHAN DRUG' STATUS! WHICH WOULD GIVE AVNR TAX CREDITS AND A 7-YEAR MONOPOLY ON THE DRUG, IN ADDITION TO THE PATENT PROTECTION.
NEURODEX COULD ALSO HAVE APPLICATIONS IN MORE THAN JUST M.S. AND LOU GEHRIG'S DISEASE. THERE'S A CHANCE IT COULD WORK IN STROKE VICTIMS AND ALZHEIMERS PATIENTS.
THEY'VE ALSO GOT NEURODEX IN A PHASE 3 TEST FOR PATIENTS WITH CHRONIC DIABETIC NEUROPATHIC PAIN. AND, RIGHT NOW, THERE REALLY AREN'T ANY DRUGS OUT THERE MEANT SPECIFICALLY FOR THIS PROBLEM. IT COULD BE ANOTHER HUGE OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS CO.
SO I THINK NEURODEX IS A GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO MAKE MONEY. BUT WHEN CRAMER BUYS A STOCK, HE WANTS MORE THAN JUST A ONE-TRICK PONY. I'M BEHIND AVNR NOT JUST FOR NEURODEX, BUT ALSO FOR THE PIPELINE!
THEY JUST SIGNED A DEAL EARLIER THIS MONTH WITH NOVARTIS TO HELP THEM DEVELOP A BUNCH OF NOT VERY SIGNIFICANT SMALL MOLECULE DRUGS.
THE DRUGS AREN'T SIGNIFICANT, BUT THE DEAL COULD EARN AVNR $200 MILLION IN MILESTONE PAYMENTS.
THEY'VE ALSO GOT A DEAL WITH ASTRA-ZENICA - WE LIKE THOSE GUYS, DEVELOPING DRUGS FOR CARDIO-VASCULAR DISEASE.
ONE OF THE THINGS I LIKE ABOUT THIS CO. - ITS CEO IS OVER-QUALIFIED, AND I RARELY SAY THAT. THIS GUY, ERIC BRANDT USED TO BE THE CFO OF ALLERGAN - A $15 BILLION CO. NOW HE RUNS AVNR, WHICH IS A $400 MILLION CO.
THIS GUY MUST REALLY BELIEVE THAT AVNR IS GOING TO BE GREAT, OR ELSE HE WOULDN'T HAVE TAKEN THE JOB.
AVNR HAS GOT NO DEBT. PRETTY STRONG INSTITUTIONAL SUPPORT. 11% OF THE FLOAT IS BEING SHORTED. I GOTTA BELIEVE THAT THE SHORTS WILL
LEERING-SWAN - THEY'VE GOT A $41-$55 PRICE TARGET ON THE THING. I MEAN, IT WENT OUT AT $13. HEY I'LL TAKE $22. I'M NOT KIDDING. NOT BECAUSE I THINK THEY'RE WRONG, BUT BECAUSE CRAMER BE CAUTIOUS, AND AT $22, YOU WILL STILL HAVE MADE A HUGE AMOUNT OF MONEY!
THE BOTTOM LINE!: AVNR HAS ITS DOCUMENTS! I THINK IT'S TIME FOR YOU TO DO SOME RESEARCH AND THEN, MAYBE, DO A 'MON-BACK, TAKE SOME DOWN, AND BUY THE STOCK! '
Take a moment to see the blood bath here
Anybody know the reason, or is it just pure and simple profit taking?
So, whats going on?
HangSang down 400 points
Nikkei down 400 points
Chinese down 100 points (3%).
Nasdaq futures down 10.
Gosu, I don't know about profit taking. But I agree it's worth looking at - seriously. When we had that big drop a few weeks ago, it could not have been but the start of a move down. The Chinese market has gone up by 300% in the past 12 months. Internet boom coming around one more time. Since the growth of a lot of uS companies relies on China, thier move down brought us down with it.
Let's see what happens next. I was very impressed - and puzzled by the Dow and NASD's strength over the past few weeks.
Regards.
asia in the shitter
hard to say exactly what has happened gosu until morning. the markets have just openned. besides remember how many up days we've had. the sad part is instead of decent pullbacks we might have a quick drop tomorrow, before the next trend.
wow the chinese mkt was down 4% last night and guess how much headline its getting this time, nada.
go AVNR!!!
$25? then $55? lol
how high do you think it will go today beanz?
AVNR up pretty big in premarket (alok).
Im loving my Jun 5 calls AVNR
Arun, i know how high it is, i want to know how high it can go. see i'm not sure if i should hold some of my AVNR for the day or sell it all pre-mkt.
wish Rambo were here :)
AVNR
on the move
sniffles
for the 6 spot!
Bill
GO AVNR!! Good luck to all that still hold a position/options.
ALOK....all I can say is watch the gap close on the 6 month chart ultimately....hard to say if it'll run up today but volume and momo look goog. The gap will ultimaely be the tell IMO.
Generally there will be some fade after the open, of course, as you know. Often a retrace. Sure seems unlikely though. Yesterday it retraced almost to the gap. Not much help.
I have no position and very low on holdings for obvious reasons
Rambo
JSDA didnt like being down at 25 very much. Hey anyone got any speculation on OPBL.OB earings on may 1st.
elmyko1
Hi Beanie,
Any opinionson SMSI. It got sluaghtered pre-market.
Thanks Rambo, I've been offloading like crazy all morning :)
let's strangle GOOG today.
Will be buying the May 510 calls and the May 450 puts. Equal contracts.
GOOG earnings tonite.
holding AMGN JULY 55's calls ...should I continue to hold?
Beanie how do u feel about holding goog through earnings, bought at 440
Jet
hopped on AVNR at 6.12 hope it rallys up
elmyko1
Jet,
you gonna be ok. You got alot of wiggle room even if they selloff the stock after earnings
Jet, cash your profit --> turn off the computer --> relax and have a drink IMO :-).
A.
MGRM... en feugo!
MRGM... then next AVNR?
(chuckle!)
Aright AVRN can start rallying now
AVNR old news... onto "the next."
i think you folks should take profits on AVNR. It's trading like it's gonna go lower from here
SMSI was bludgeoned/downgraded this morning by Jeffries from BUY to HOLD and they lowered their price target on the stock from 24. to 21.
19-Apr-07 Jefferies & Co Downgraded Buy-to-Hold, Price target lowered from $24-to-$21
well that sucks so much for some quick cash today
elmyko1
AVNR likely will go down from here but I am holding 1/2 of what I have for longer term.
This is just its 1st leg.
I have a stop in for AVNR at 5.49. Looks like it's trending lower. Sold my call option this morning for a hefty profit.
beanie,
what would be good buying points on JSDA and JASO? also is NYX a buy here? thanks buddy
Bought some STP @ 34.6
Dimitry
Walstreet:
Howabout that yen carry last night, gettin' knocked down under 118?
HILL is breaking out..
Posted ADCT and ALVR on my blog last night, and it looks like ALVR is already starting to take off.
Take a look at my charts when you get the chance. I like ALVR on any pullback to the $8.30-ish area, but it's busting new annual highs today, so....
ALVR ... sniffles on the annual high breakout... check my blog post from last night for the chart.
Duh, I just realized I said the same thing twice...
Picked a bad day to stop sniffing glue, I guess.
Beanie, what do you think of buying the SMSI May 20 Calls?
anyone thinking of buying the solars again. I started loading up on JASO, will look hard at TSL, its only down because CHINA tanked.
arun,
dont buy the SMSI calls. Huge breakdown today. Probably going to 15
Hi Beanie,
How do we play SMSI going into earnings. I have july 17.5 calls on it. Will it go into the teens.
MGRM.... gobble, gobble at 2.18
Anon, i'm looking at MGRM and its not dropping to 2.18, i believe its should end stronger from here.
Alok,
MGRM just dropped to 2.17! Good call Anon. I'm starting to nibble at it myself.
Sue
I sure hope this is just a leg for AVNR and it hops back up to at least 6.
Any other trading ideas today?
Jake, your ONT is picking up steam.
Alok, Arun:
Just my opinion, but I think we should be seeing a turnup on MGRM momentarily... 38.2% retrace line is right here at 2.23, and though the fiteen minute candles have been piercing it, the bodies have stayed aloft. Selling volume looks to be slackening here... watch and wait for the gobble.
ONT is in recovery, and back above the 38% line of 2.15, but it may still want to fill that gap at 1.98 to 2.01 (note 2.01 is the LOD today).
Also like ALVR a lot here with the seeming breakout of the $SMH. But I really like it anywhere near $8.40.
I still think this is a leg for AVNR but either way, I sold 1/2 for 100% profit so I am playing with the bank's money.
OPBL will release earning in May. Buy now, it will go up soon.
Lazio
Well, spike my shorts, no sooner do I post it than we have a candle body violation of the 38.2 fib on MGRM... 50% fib at 2.15... might as well see if that's a better entry. Volume still lightening, which is a good sign...
Gobbled MGRM at $2.0495!! :)
Bill
Well, there went the volume and boom all the way to the 61.8% line at about 2.06 (which is supposed to be a strong one for retrace turns... if it busts this level, it may be going all the way back to it's start).
Rebounding to 2.13 now... fascinating.
You lying sack, "Bill" frum Joisey.
LOL.
More likely than not, the next leg down will come, starting in May if not sooner
AVCI will pay out $2/share cash dividend in June!
sniffs, sniffs at 9.38
beanie:
where would you buy JSDA and JASO?
4/17/07
buying puts on AG....downside...2 top target ....39.5..target not met...and more downside.....(2008...earnings...may still not be priced in...doubtful...)...makes tractors....combines...busy..busy...eps trending....nuetral...
Zee...
anon,
buy JSDA on a dip tomorrow.
JASO - wait maybe 1-2 more days
srini,
if you have July, you're ok.
i feel better that we get a market 2nd leg down and get it over with
I sure hope GOOG disappoints tonite and get a 60 point haircut.
lol. I wish.
buying puts AMGN...500mil in lost black label box sales....plus ....30 /50...strong short sell signal.70/30.....I think AMGN...up in symapathy GILD..eps report.....downside..200 day= 68......PUT...takes awhile to work...
zee..
GOOG.... I think “”you tube “”...might hurt GOOG bottom line...50/50...downside....GOOG...beats estimates...anyway...
Sold my GOOG at 477+ today... Afraid of earnings.
Dimitry
hey beanie, you mentioned we might have another downleg coming..do you think we can go up a couple hundred points up or S&p can make it to 1500+ or so before we have another correction?
Where could we add to SMSI? I am sure it will do great after earnings of course it did not do that great during previous earnings-- Also your opinions on NYX earnings
Thanks
4/17/07
CI,ETR,AZZ,GSK,...all starting to look toppy...70/30...thru 80/20.....
ZEE...
What’s wrong with AMR....??...goes...below 29.5...and then there’s bottomless pit...
zee
Any opinions on AAPL and NYX ?
Dimitry
whoa i totally tanked on AVNR
elmyko1
Boy AVNR was ugly today. If there is no secondary, I am still bullish on it.
There are a lot of shorts in this maybe more than before yesterday.
Great I have the distinction of holding all the looser stocks
NYX,AAPL,SMSI,GIGM,BRLC AND UNH
TSL bottomed? good price to get in now.
Jet
ENER down almost $4 AH.
Great rec, beanie.
Dimitry! I googled "sold too soon" and your name popped up!
_________
Just giggin' ya pahdnah.
(or is it "googin' yah?")
_________________
Don't feel bad... I had a $100 bet with my brother (Former trader for Herzog Heine & Gadould (sp?)) about whether GOOG would be above or below $100 by this May.
He took the under.
ALVR's gettin the nice pullback here.
June 7 fitties, if you like options.
Also, if you are a Siamese twins fan, you have to get the original:
CHaNG and ENG!
CHNG closed on it's high today, btw...
Jake, I was away from the blog most of the trading day but just caught your post about the Dollar/YEN and the carry-trade implications.
The US market stood up to the rest of the overnight markets this time around with the Dollar behaving currently at 118.42 Yen.
I was busy buying the hell out of AOI this morning and also late in the afternoon as this stock has proved to be a true gem for me and a go-to stock on any dips.
The stock became a bit too overbought a few days ago on my short term indicators and I sold my position. Naturally I welcomed this pullback.
The stock should move higher from here.
Walst. -- ya gotta love those addictive products for your core portfolio. I'm a big fan of UST in the IRA, as well as Big MO.
I've never done anything with AOI, but I'll check it out now...
Hey Beanz... that was some AVNR pump today, no?
Geez, I thought I got the short end with the NYX advertisement, but this one... it had a half life of unstable Strontium 90.
Yes Avnr is ugly today, because only darytraders are the only ones buying and selling.
Hi Board,
Any feeling or takers for AVNR tomorrow? Still in, could double down at this point...Suggestions?
Beanie...
Pamfla
AVNR almost closed the gap on the 6 month as I suspected and cautioned about. That's where the shorts would attack knowing that the TA traders and previous losers from the gap down would sell. Not enough buyers at those levels and the shorts overwhelmed them. I almost shorted myself but played safer plays....but KNOT as profitable.
Hindsight is 20/20 but I was thinking if I wouldn't chase near 7, neither will most and that would lead to more sellers than buyers and maybe capitulation from the frustrated retailers. Knot always right but the risk/reward has to be considered. JST some, hopefully, objective observations but I usually don't read Yahoo boards due to the silly shorts and pumpers alike to know if there was news.
Goog trading to all
Rambo
JakeGint:
Yes, we sold GOOG too early :)
Dimitry
SIGA SIGA SIGA!!!!!!!!!!!
Look at the HHS plan that will be out today.The plans pdf describes what the are ordering under the smallpox drug.It is clearly siga st246.They will release the plan today.Get in on this fallback early today before its announced.Only 1 of many orders to come.
SIGA SIGA SIGA!!!!!!!!!!!
Look at the HHS plan that will be out today.The plans pdf describes what the are ordering under the smallpox drug.It is clearly siga st246.They will release the plan today.Get in on this fallback early today before its announced.Only 1 of many orders to come.
if DNDN closed 15+ today, then I see upside movement by Monday. Today's option expires, most shorts bet DNDN going down to at least 12.50, more likely it would not.
And I would hold my AVNR for awhile see how high it goes. The more I read about the company and their product pipeline, the more I liked it. Again, JMHO.
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