PCU looks like a great short here.
PCU closed @72.67
This stock has been on fire for 2 straight months! Today's bearish engulfing pattern should help consolidate the stock for at least a few days.
PCU is a copper play. I think the commodities are overbought and are due for a correction.
day/swing trade
This stock has been on fire for 2 straight months! Today's bearish engulfing pattern should help consolidate the stock for at least a few days.
PCU is a copper play. I think the commodities are overbought and are due for a correction.
day/swing trade
posted by beanie11111 | 1:19 AM
150 Comments:
holy cow, Chinese stock market crashing 10%!!!!
Oh man, shorts are lickin their chops. They gonna be piling in more put options and they gonna be rich!!!
Be ready this morning, we got work to do.
I own shorts in PCU and QQQQ, and looking to add more today.
short AAPL! Going to the low 70's intermediate term.
Let's wait out the first 15-30 minutes to see if we get a bounce before adding more shorts.
Is that because of Chineze market that you expect everyhing to go down today including the beloved AAPL?
Thanks.
Dimitry
Can someone tell me how I go about shorting a stock on ameritrade? sorry for the noob question
NYX got downgraded this morning.
I guess you should choose "sell short" radiobutton assuming that you have margin trading enabled (by default it is disabled).
However note that strictly saying shorting is not investing :)
Dimitry,
I didn't expect the Chinese to sell off, but it certainly could give the impetus for Americans to take profits. The bull run since last July is long on tooth and needs a rest. The stock charts on many stocks are showing overbought condition and many are showing cracks. Alan Greenspan also scared investors yesterday with his recession talk.
In 1987, the market crashed in October with US Dollar tanking and silver prices going thru the roof. On top of that, there were merger mania equivalent to today's equity buyouts. It was a 1-2 day crash that ultimately created many bargains and the markets took off after that.
Today's market is very similar to 1987, with the US Dollar tanking and silver prices going thru the roof. Merger mania is prevalent.
I believe this year we will end up with new highs on the Dow. But i also believe we need a correction first. Hopefully we get it now, rather than October.
hey, uh, be careful shorting on this gap down. Our market has been very resilient of late, so it is no surprise to me if they scoop up the shares on the gap down like they've been doing for weeks.
I feel better that you wait out the first 30 minutes on stocks that gaps down huge.
NYX probably going to 75
Beanie,
I opened a ^DJI and 1987 shows much (twice) steep climb on the period from 1985 to 1987.
Dimitry
PS I am not telling that there will be no correction - just pointing to some difference on the plot.
WOW! It looks like the Chinese stock had circuit breakers activated to stem the fall.
gosu,
there is a limit put in place for a selloff for the chinese markets. Max kept at 10% per day.
Probably gets another 10% haircut tomorrow. lol
Where are the ICE permabulls?
Markets will tank big-time today! But thanks to Beanie's warnings, I'm now 75% in cash. Thanks again Beanie!!
Steve
not surprising look at their one year chart. they were looking at 100% gains in the index, imagine the rise of the individual stocks.
Any bets on how far ICE will go today?
I am betting 148.
Do I hear 145?
Nasdaq futures already down 21, almost 1%.
Sorry, Nasdaq futures DOWN by 25.
this is really it! This is the correction we're waitin for!!!
Where are the ICE fans?
MACACAAA YAPPEPIEIEIEEEEEE.
PCU:
"Credit Suisse reported that they have lowered their 2007 average copper price forecast from $3.25 to $2.84. For 2008, the metal research team is looking for an approximate $2.35 annual average price. Based on this view and mid-cycle metrics, PCU's 12-month forward outlook is in-line with current consensus price targets with a mean just under $61/share. Much of the PCU anticipated robust production is the resumption of full mining operations in Mexico. Production is now normalized and the overall long term trend for copper prices is down. Cyclical stocks tend to exhibit multiple contraction at the peak of an earnings cycle. The multiple contract pace is a matter of how sticky the underlying commodity prices are. No matter, PCU's premium metrics to its peers places it in a precarious risk reward and decreases the probability of a buyout."
WYNN:
i will be looking to buy march 95 puts on a rebound near 99-100. Earnings is tonite. This is an all-or-nothing trade but i like the prospect of the trade because of the general market and because WYNN chart is cracking. The plan is to hold thru earnings.
BLACK TUESDAY
wow, it makes me feel really good to have ownership of put options on a day like this!
MA is a great short at 102 here
It's gonna be a horrrible day :
- Dick Cheney assassination attempt in Afghan
- China crash
- Durable numbers horrible
- market intermediate term overbought
- Iran goes nuclear
- Alan Greenspam recession talk
dont forget about the housing slump.
this is gonna be crazy. I am 100% cash right now.
Boy I'm so glad I didn't put in money yesterday. I'll have to think my strategy now.
Where are the ICE fans?
die ICE die!!! lol
OH MY GOODNESS ITS A BLOOD BATH OUT THERE. EVERYTHING IS DOWN.
I told you guys. If 78% of stocks are above their 200 dma, there is no way they are going up from there.
LOL, Gosu you turned bull right at the top! You are now my official contrarian indicator. Keep up the posting bud.
SHORT NVDA NOW!!!!!!
Hey Board and Beanie,
Man, CORRECTION TIME...holy cow...
XING dropped to 16.00 back to almost 18.00..Time to hold on I guess..no liquid cash for the moment...Pamfla
Gosu, Dwight Shrute couldn't have said it any better! :-)
Re: NVDA short:
Be careful, it's way above 50 and 200, but big boys are in big and I've been waiting to short, but not yet.
Beanie,
MRVL is at HOD 20.94...dude, imagine that...
Pamfla
Over 13 million shares
How is NVDA up?
Beanie , is ice still a short at 152? How about Rimm at 144?
I doubt we're done correcting. There should be more coming in the next few days.
If you're not sure what to short, just short the indexes like the SPY or QQQQ by buying puts.
SOMEONE PLEASE LIST A FEW SHORTS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THANKS
uh...everything.
china down 10% again tonight. bet on it.
Shorts China based:
CHL
FXI
Only short these if you expect china market to be down again tonight.
cheers
Chili
beanie, a quick comment:
s&p finally tested 1432..the 50day moving average..whcih wasn't tested since july 2006..looks like it could be a strong support..don't you think that would be enough correction?
also, despite all the bad news we are also still holding the morning lows...do you think that means anything?
would like your educated views..thanks
Where are the ICE bulls?
Looks like they got *****ed
crash!!!! woohoo00000
anon,
S&P what?
Short it!!!! lol
PCU is a great short. Still is.
holy cow, how long has it been since we've seen nasdaq down 50 points ????
I feel kinda bad to be profiting from others losses.
OK, so I was off by a week.
http://realhedgefund.blogspot.com/2007/02/worst-one-day-loss-for-nasdaq-tomorrow.html
GS gettin killed!!
LOL, you were more than just "off" Dwight. You lost mucho dinero on the short side then you went bullish exactly at the top! lol, no you're underwater on your longs. You are an entertaining little guy to watch.
Where are the ICE longs? Looks like they got ****ed.
Beanie, there are no shares to short with my broker, should I keep trying? Not sure if they free up during the day.
MACACAAAA YAPEPEPIEEEE...
WE DIDN'T START THE FIRE...
Surprisingly, most stocks are only down 2-3% with this massive selloff.
Much more blood spillin to go....
short short short!!!
We could be looking at a 15-20% correction.
ICE:
ICE x 20% correction from 157 = 125!!!!!
see ya there?
Where are the diehard ICE longs???
Looks like they got ****ed!!!
Gosu, how exactly are they f*$#ked if it is still above beanie's original short price? I'm still long and well above my original entry point. You sound like a child with this.
There is one. Any others?
What wonderful opportunities to day trade, even if you only go long.
Low of the days for:
NMX 123, currently 130
MA 99, currently 104
Among others...
Wishful thinking.
Hey Board... Just bought NYX April 85 puts... thoughts on NYX short term?
Sold 100% today.......
Channel Wedge breakdown confirmed.
West
MA giving you shorties a good puckering
JADE is now down another 12% !!
ROFLMAO !!!
Wilmer, don't worry about Dwight. He's a dolt of epic proportions. Read my post above about how he went long right at the top. Over the past few weeks he's been on the bear side while the market continued to make new highs. Then just the other day he finally threw in the towel and went long and wouldn't you know it, the market broke!
HEHEHEHE..
ROFLMAO !!!
I can't wait to see your portfolios today.
Sold my CHINA long for a 10% haircut, ouch, but it's still going lower. At least MRVL is kicking ass.
What about long recommendations? Can't tell if this sell off will continue tomorrow or not. NYX more room to fall with the downgrade?
GIGM holding pretty well at *only* -6% considering it's chinese roots. They report on March 13, so plenty of time for it to run up again like it did last quarter.
easy trade .... GS to 215
Bidu will revisit 100$ ..
Gosu, please give me another. Thanks for MA.
SHOULD'VE SHORTED NVDA WHEN IT WAS POSITIVE. THAT PIG IS GOING DOWN EVEN IF WARREN BUFFET WAS A SHAREHOLDER.
Some things I feel were obvious just before the sell off:
1) Gold rallied 5% in a day last week. As beanie said, it was the big guys bracing themselves for the fall.
Same thing happened last year. Click here to see how gold spiked from 570 in March and topped out at 726 just before the sell off, when Nasdaq went down 10% in two months.
2) Percentage of stocks above their 200 Day Moving average was 78. This indicates seriously overbought conditions.
3) Sell off in Brokerages and Bank stocks in 5 trading sessions before the collapse. Click here to see charts of LEH, BSC, MS and MER. If brokerages are selling hard on three times the average volume, means that insiders know the collapse is coming.
Hindsight is 20/20 eh Dwight? Just think, if you would've just held on a little longer all the money you would've made! Ah, well that's the diff between good and bad traders.
A Prediction:
Market turns around after March 16, 2007
Anyone that gives me a shortable stock right now, I'll have a check in the mail for them tomorrow. 25% of the profit will be the reward.
Wow.
So, this was really not an aberration
Wow..I remember telling you guys that it was not the right time to buy alternate energy because of a possible correct, and I go ahead and buy right ahead. Ouch! Learn and live I guess
Sorry, two days late on this prediction too;
gosu said...
ICE going down 10 dollars today.
Fri Feb 23, 07:31:00 AM EST
ICE current price
WWAT getting crushed.
GOSU... Any thoughts on how low NYX can go? I saw an earlier post by Beannie saying 75. THX... SKI.
On NYX or any other stock:
When I am short, I am strictly day trading. No carryover of short overnight. Profit is profit. Keep it and be happy.
On going long, I am not going long until EOD March 16, 2007. That is when I will slowly start buying my favorite stocks.
This selloff is breathtaking! lol
wow....
Breathtaking ...yeah..
But the deal is that this time it was so obviously coming.
Gosu
http://www.realhedgefund.com
BLOOD BATH AND BEYOND
PANIC PANIC DOW FUTURES DOWN BY 500 POINTS.
For anyone all in cash.
AMGN APRIL 62.5 CALL is worth a minimum of $5.90.
It’s on sale today for $3.70.
AMGN WILL DEFINETELY close the gap at $67. (and will go higher) YOU might take another $80 hit tomorrow.
Downside...AMGN has another possible 50 cent to $1.50 drop to fill in it’s price channel,
but after that, It’s UP, UP, and AWAY.
Or today is the Low. (RSI 25)
WHEN are you going to see (RSI 25) again?
ICE CALLS … I wouldn’t touch ICE CALLS till I see $135. = first support. $131 = really good support
CME CALLS I got nothing (SHOCK AND AWE)
DIA CALLS I got nothing (SHOCK AND AWE)
z-stock.
Hi Beanie,
Thanks for ICE. I am playing APR puts for ICE,PCU,AAPL. Would this
selloff continue into tommorow since it has been so brutal forone day.
Or is there a possiblity of a bounce tommorow before the next leg down.
Thanks for the help
DOW NOW DOWN 500
DONT TELL ME I DIDN'T TELL YOU
DOW NOW DOWN 500
DONT TELL ME I DIDN'T TELL YOU
srini,
It's a good idea to take some profits on your puts on such a huge selloff.
Nice call on the correction Beanie. You may have been a little early but you stuck to your guns. Thanks for this blog.
Hey GOSU, please stop the bold stuff. its getting a little irritating. and what is all this GLOATING about, you've been prediting a correction everyday for the past 15 days. even you should be right 1 in 16 times. Please control yourself.
on a side note, i CANNOT f@#$ING BELIEVE THIS. down 500 points man do they want all the correction to be done in one day hahaha
I agree Alok. He acts like a child.
cnbc asses are saying its no big deal. "turn off your computer" one doof said.
guys this is the beginning. china will go down again. asia is gonna derail.
vicious cycle
well i don't mean to be negative and all, but please be a positive influence on this board. you have a lot of knowledge and have some excellent inputs. all i request is that you share it wisely with us. look at beanie...
Interesting!! Dow went down from 250 to 500 in a split second.
yeah that was horrifying for me. i mean i happened to look at it just when it was down 500 and then i refreshed my screen and it was back up to 300, now its around the -400 mark. very very interest. i think we'll have a couple of down days, very good buying points.
It would be very nice to watch Jim Cramer and Fast Money today.
I took most of my profits already when dow hit 500. I guess that would be a good number to do it.
Have a great day, everyone! ('cause i did!)
see ya tomorrow
Yes, I was seeing that the DOW futures (traded on CBOT) was Down 500, but the Dow was only down 275 (Most stocks traded on NYSE)
I think it has to do something with the trading curbs on NYSE. Ofcourse, there are no trading curbs on CBOT.
You are funny Alok,
In a day - The worst day for Nasdaq in 7 years, I would better be right in 1 out of 16 trading days.
And its better, I would get out of market on day 1 of 16, rather than get out on day 16.
HEHEHEHEHE.
Hey were is guy smiley today? You know, the "I bet you have a big smile on your face if you own ***"
RNIN
XNN
ZVUE
MED
XING
etc...etc..
hmm, I'm gonna take a guess he's not smiling today.
I am so happy I sold all of my GS yesterday morning! Made a nice little profit for holding it for 15 weeks. Time to make my buy list with my cash!
I just bought some AAPL puts, with 1/2 of today's huge profits.
I seriously doubt Beanie had a good day.
Anyone else here think that when Beanie plays craps, he plays both the Pass and Don't Pass lines at the same time?
I think his real name is even steven.
who was the guy who was lamenting selling OPBL at 7, here is your opportunity to get back in at a lower price. wait and watch.
Alok,
With a Headline like this, I would be right in 1 out of 16 times.
gosu, as i said its not that i don't enjoy interacting with you, but your gloating is bugging me, just thought you should know about it. from what i can see its bugging others too.
I might have Alok and I apologize, but a lot of people said the same thing about Beanie, when he mentioned the upcoming market correction and ICE getting hammered.
I would rather be bugged than have losses.
Gosu, keep calling out winners man, don't listen to the bag holders that don't know how to trade.
Opinions for tommorow morning- Anybody.
Took half profits on ice,aapl,nyx puts.
HEY SRINI... I'm thinking the same exact thig myself sold half my NYX puts, Hanging on to the rest anticipating more selling in the sessions ahead. Anybody else agree with this thesis? Comments please. SKI
SKI and Srini you guys are the boom. you did the smartest thing why are you asking for validation. all i would suggest is look at the world mkts tomorrow morning to get an idea of the mkt sentiment all around the globe and then make your decisions. you might end up deciding to buy additional puts who knows. I'm looking for a point to reenter the mkt right now.
OH MY GOD BEANIE IS A GENIUS!!! HE PREDICTED THE STOCK MARKET CRASH. HE IS SUPERHUMAN!!!!!!
Actually he has been calling tops for months now just like every other dope.
Alright deviating a little from todays agenda I'm going to throw out some names that will be excellent picks in this correction.
RIMM, QSII, YHOO, AKAM, FDRY, OPBL :) ICON and my fav ATI
Dont mean to boast. But Called this correction for the end of February with an explanation. www.thebulltrader.com
Yes, Beanie, Brett, myself and others have been calling for a correction for a month. And isn't that a good thing. Imagine somebody shouting at the top of his voice in Feb 2000, that the market is going to crash.
That would be something!!
Anyway, My best bet is to re-enter the market in last hour of trading on March 16, 2007.
That is if the indicators are as follows:
1) The percentage of stocks above their 200 day MA is around 30
2) The number of stocks with 100% move in a month <= 3.
I would not suggest (as somebody has been suggesting on CNBC), just putting in limit orders and buy when your favorite stocks go down to that level.
I would suggest wait for the market indicators to be in your favor (oversold) and then slowly (dollar cost averaging up), your favorite stocks.
Gosu, trading out of your parents basement on their Mac with money used from selling your car deosn't count as a hedge fund. Sorry.
Its just a blog, buddy. Liten up!
hi,
What is March 16th you keep alluding to- ?
Not a top secret buddy. Take a guess.
Hint#1: Look at it on a calender.
Hint#2: Look at chart of ICE, NYX or any other stock and see what it did on Jun 14, 2006.
Get it? Still not?
gosu (aka dwight), everybody here sees that ur full of sh*t. u turned bullish at the market top. the blog shows it. take your huge losses like a man!
Tonight's overnight market won't mean anything.
Everyone's going to be Eyeing the DJIA, in the morning.
If, it's up even 7 points, then it's back to BUY, BUY, BUY.
Z-STOCK
hey folks, let's try to make money rather than baggin on each other.
We are headed lower. Use any market bounce to short more.
I find Gosu to be more annoying than the "Smiley Man". Hopefully this market correction will wash them both out to sea.
Scott
I am not touching any stocks to go long tomorrow, as it is end of month.
March 1st may be a different story.
Japanese, Korean, Australian and New Zealand market open 3-4% lower.
This in addition to the fact that tomorrow is the end of month, I suggest that you be careful with going long tomorrow morning.
Perhaps beanie can look into banning the ISP's of gosu and smiley man?
Man! This blog is probably the most entertaining thing on the Internet! LOL!!
AAPL looks like a really good short. If it bounces in the morning tomorrow, short it!
Beanie,
What would be good entry point to AAPL if I buy long?
Good idea, Anon! But I have a feeling only one IP address needs to be blocked. (wink)
Hi everyone. Is it too late to buy into QID? Any thoughts?
QID
Any chart experts out here? Looking at its chart tells that it is ready for a breakout.
The MACDs seem to be rolling over as well.
NEIL you stole my words. be careful with QID thought its is double sensitive to the mkts movement, so if the mkt moves down 1% QID will rise 2% and vice versa. but that is just the right ETF play for this kinda mkt. i have a feeling this is going to be one bad week, just a feeling no charts. lol guys lighten up on GOSU hes not all bad, he has some excellent ideas and facts.
Neil,
The market could be in a major correction- there might be more sell-off tomorrow. There are very few buys now. I sold half of my holdings yesterday to be on safe side, but I should have sold more. Hopefully this market correction would not be so long and deep. Good Luck!
QID is probably good for at least 3 points but will that come tomorrow? I'd rather be short than long if I had to pick.
Shanghai shares stabilize as Asia extends decline..
That’s all I got so far.
After Hours CBS Marketwatch list , Most Stocks unchanged to down less than one percent
z-stock
z-stock depends on what your looking at. Hang Seng is down nealy 3%, so it looks a little confusing right now. a negative bias seems to be lingering. tomorrow will be interesting.
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