Will the selling continue this week?
Well, it appears that we gonna get a Monday gap down. If we don't reverse significantly, the market is in for more pain. (I still think we will bounce the first half of this week). I have some really good shorts that i'm ready to recommend if we get a lame bounce.
If you gonna go long on anything, get in small. The financials and brokers are no place to be a hero and try to catch falling knives. (You could get seriously sliced and diced!!!)
As the market tanks, i will be accumulating a little bit of alternative energy stocks as i believe they will lead the next bull market. Technology is done leading and only few select big names (like AAPL, RIMM and GOOG) will continue to make money for investors. I don't see any new disruptive technology explosion in the horizon. The oils are stabilizing and have limited upside. The Saudis can't let oils go too high or it will stifle demand. If oil continues alot higher, alternative energy sector will be very competitive and more popular and the sector will go alot higher alot faster. Oils at current levels plus global warming is already starting to drive the alternative energy sector, whether oil companies like it or not.
If you gonna go long on anything, get in small. The financials and brokers are no place to be a hero and try to catch falling knives. (You could get seriously sliced and diced!!!)
As the market tanks, i will be accumulating a little bit of alternative energy stocks as i believe they will lead the next bull market. Technology is done leading and only few select big names (like AAPL, RIMM and GOOG) will continue to make money for investors. I don't see any new disruptive technology explosion in the horizon. The oils are stabilizing and have limited upside. The Saudis can't let oils go too high or it will stifle demand. If oil continues alot higher, alternative energy sector will be very competitive and more popular and the sector will go alot higher alot faster. Oils at current levels plus global warming is already starting to drive the alternative energy sector, whether oil companies like it or not.
posted by beanie11111 | 9:43 PM
64 Comments:
http://www.newsday.com/business/nationworld/wire/sns-ap-brazil-us-ethanol,0,3680908.story?coll=sns-ap-business-headlines
The truth is, we do NOT need oil/gas for our automobiles. Ethanol is already viable.
Cars can now run on 100% electricity. A SUV now costs about $50k and be able to run 140 miles before each charge (it takes only 10 minutes and costs about $3 per charge). Now if the oilmen would allow it to rip without fighting with tooth and nails, mass commercialization would drive down the cost of the automobile dramatically.
Beanie, Saudis do not own the petrol market, they just own the wells. Its western companies, British and New York exchanges that decide what the price of petrol would be. Oops I forgot the Chinese. The high price of petrol is not due to shortage, but to the Iraq war and uncertainty in Middle East. As a matter of fact, all the alternative energy market will crash if petrol go down to $45. So when petrol drops to $50 as it did, sell all the alternative energy stocks.
Dow futures down 78, Nasdaq down 15.
Hang Seng down 400, Nikkei down 400.
Again, I would suggest you wait at least till end of day, March 16, 2007 to start any buy side positions.
The S&P, Dow and Nasdaq futures are selling off on very very high volume. Unlike anything I have seen in the past.
I got news for you. OIL is going to $40. Solar power and ethanol are here to stay. And the smart money (Japan), just bought $8 Billion ethanol from Brazil. B.Gates owns (PEIX)
Dow futures down 86 now Hang Seng down 500.
Guess I'll keep my GS, GOOG and BSC puts on. Beanie still buying GOOG, or will he enjoy me in an ICE-ey conversion?
Z, what is the significance of the 16th of March?
Sorry, that was not a freudian misprint. I meant "join" me ...
Brazilian Ethanol does not make sense. Any new field of sugar cane will bite into the Amazon forest. Environmentalists there are being murdered by big planters. Even in America, we cannot produce enough ethanol as it is cheaper to produce crops than ethanol. However it is just a matter of time till we find a way to make ethanol cheaper.
yup, they are already thinking about synthetic corn (what have we come to).
look at the world mkts damn, every single indice is down huge. glad i kept my shorts from friday. we still have ways to go in the US mkts.
Assume the worst…..
HUI HOLDS @ 306 ..*** I’m going to call that a market bottom. If HUI support broken then SPY @ 136 is my next market bottom.
PCU testing 60 =( 50 day) this week.
STP testing 31/32 ( 32= 20% pullback)
MAR 16 ( FRI. options expiration date) In the old days 1999 – 2000 Anything you bought first thing Monday morning, you got 25%-100% returns.
I looked into those wood chips into ethanol kits one time.. I think it came out to 50 cents a gallon for the home brewer. Let’s see Chevron BEAT THAT.
Does anybody have any thought on playing the QID this week? SKI
Hi, Beanie,
I see that we are still heading down...
I still don't want to sell my long positions, because I like them ( AAPL, GOOG, MSFT, SNDK, NYX BBY and some other), but I would like to stop further declining in my account value.
For this purpose I am thinking to short something overpriced with a biggger fall potential and thus to wait bad times. Any advise from you is greatly appreciated, because I don't have any knowledge of bad companies, always was looking for good ones.
Thanks
Dimitry
Anonymous,
Still holding XING...any suggestions?
Pamfla
Looks like RIMM will finally get whacked...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070305/research_in_motion_restatement.html?.v=4
Lots of stocks are going to get corn holed today.
Pamfla, I wrote two weeks ago that XING had put in a top. You countered that it was going to 20. I'm sorry but I had already sold my position before I had wrote that. I don't plan on even touching XING until this sell off is over. Looks like it will provide a great buying opp. :)
Short RIMM!
Long ALTI!!!! This is a long term investment!!!
Short ICE!!!
140
going to 120
WOW! Some short covering rally.
BSC is a short
short short short!
beanie, you still believe in going long here on stocks like good and nyx?
anon,
the path of least resistance is still down. I only recommend nibbling but no serious buying.
Give it a few weeks.
2 words:
LAME BOUNCE
You got to wonder what the hell is going on!
beanie,
i have been watching your site for a while now and you seem to know ALOT about the market. I am a new trader and I would like to learn from you.
How can you tell that the path of least resistance is still down?
anon,
the shellacking the market got last week should be a warning sign. Nobody drops like that without a good reason.
ALTI:
earnings is thursday. It won't be that impressive but the rest of the year will be.
ALTI is an alternative energy play that could become huge.
Anyone have a target price for RIMM?
RIMM:
'Shareholders Lose
Of the grants the company made between Feb. 28, 2002, and August 2006, 321 awards had incorrect dates, Research In Motion said in its statement. That's about 63 percent of all grants made after Feb. 28 2002, the company said.
``The shareholders here are the losers,'' said Richard Williams, director of research at ICAP in Jersey City, New Jersey. He rates the shares ``sell'' and doesn't own any. ``Backdating creates greater dilution. More shares had to be created to pay for those greater profits.'' '
Beanie.... Think RIMM is a good short at these levels? Currently sitting on all cash thinking of shorting on this pop up....SKI
ALTI the next Microsoft?
wheeeeee
XNN the next TASR!
hey gosu.... You on the sidelines today? SKI
Please own some ALTI for the longer term. Please Please Please... lol
Ski,
yes RIMM is a short here at 135
I bot some GS, BSC, CME, BOT and ICE early this morning, only to sell them into the rally an hour later.
But yes, I have been on the sidelines for the last three trading days.
I am suspecting the markets will be in sideways movement till March 16th (options expiration).
After that, it will rally till March 31 because of terrific bargains available,
after which it will go down again, until some good news comes from a tech bellwether.
WOW! The rally is absolutely hollow.
Please be careful in buying anything for the long term.
The Market breath is decidedly negative.
http://www2.barchart.com/momentum.asp
As regular visitors know, it was mentioned previously that the percentage of stocks above their 200 day MA was 78, and was indicating overbought conditions in February.
Right now it stands at 65. Ideal buying conditions are, if this figure gets around 30 or 35.
ALTI:
Don't tell me one of these days i didn't recommend this one.
ALTI , imo, will be one of the companies to lead the alternative energy sector to lifetime highs and also lead the market indexes to new all time highs.
You don't believe? We'll see.
Give it one year and witness the markets levitate to new all time highs , ok?
C'mon man, ALTI is only $4. A Starbucks coffee can get ya 1 share. Can you buy yourselves a thousand shares for a potentially life-changing experience?
I don't know beanie. If we are entering a global recession like gosu suggests crude is going to see lower prices which will most certainly be bearish for alternative energy. Unless the fed starts to ease I don't see ALTI doing anything but retracing todays gains. Especially if it closes below 3.95.
ICE can be shorted, especially on any rise.
going to 120 or lower
I like a crash as much as any bears out there, but i am calling for new highs on the DJIA by year's end.
Short if ya like, but don't underestimate Secretary Paulson.
BIDU is a short.
BIDU going to 85
Please don't get me wrong. I am not suggesting a global recession. All we need is some really good sell off (indicators mentioned above - Perct. of stocks above 200 day MA <=30) and afterwards some nice good news from a tech mega cap. Microsoft would be nice. When that happens, I am all in, even on some margin.
Currently, I am strictly day trading into rallies.
anon,
The truth is, even if oil goes back to $30 a barrel, alternative energy is still viable. Specificially, ALTI and Motorsports can now offer fully electric vehicles costing only $3 per charge, which takes only 10 minutes and travels 140 miles!!!!!!
I pay about $33 per 11 gallons of gasoline for my suv and it travels about 200-250 miles on the full tank.
Granted, what Motorsports offers right now cost about $50,000 each for a utility vehicle but with mass adoption i'm pretty sure the price will drop significantly by more than 1/2!!!! This is totally viable and cars will no longer need to use fossil fuels. The only obstacle right now are actually the oilmen. Those old cronies not gonna step down and lose mega billions (trillions for long term) without a fight.
They been slammin the alternative energy market with vicious lies on top of lies. They lobby in Congress like hell, throwing their money around hungry politicians. Our government knows alternative energy is viable right now, good enough to replace oil. But many American jobs are at stake if the oil industry collapses. It ain't gonna happen but i'm sure it's slowly faze out in the next few decades.
Beanie should we take fresh short positions into this rally, the mkt seems to have recovered all its early morning losses.
Alok,
ICE is a short.
BIDU is a short.
RIMM is a short.
Yeah, you can short everything else also. But i wished you had done it on the rally.
yeah i just realized that, damn i've been in meetings all morning, just got back to my desk and saw that as i was typing the message the mkt was flipping again. oh well i guess i missed it today.
actually ALok,
don't short today. There could be a bounce tomorrow and possibly wednesday. I think wednesday is a great time to short
RIMM:
By friday's close, this thing should be midway down the toilet.
GS and BSC are shorts.
ICE at 140 is a decent short.
ICE:
Luckily for ICE, CME got upgraded this morning. lol
you still think ICE is a short here or wait for wed-thu?
ICE: check out the 10MA on a weekly and it is plain jane. First time it ever broke through.
-Chucky
ICE:
great short above 140. Hold that short. It should tank huge by thursday/friday. Believe?
HiBeanie,
What is up with AAPL seems to be holding strong -
yes ICE is a short here. Short 1/2 now above 140 and see what happens tomorrow.
srini,
It got upgraded this morning, but i do not think it will hold this week. Short it!
ICE is on its way to 120. If you believe that as well, you can pretty much short today. I have a short position, but hoping it gets to 145 to pile in more shorts. But i doubt it will get there.
RIMM:
if this closes negative, you can be pretty sure your short will work. Hold that short!
I just posted a new official recommendation.
Good luck.
holy cow ISRG at 104, anyone has any takes on this. after all this craziness is over ISRG will surely reach 120, it always does :) very interested in your opinions.
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