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The last few years have been great to me, as i was able to clobber the S&P500 many times in returns. But of course, you can't make a living trading the markets if you don't make great great returns. I'll try to give my readers trades that i think will make them money. However, you need to have money management skills, in order not to lose everything on a greedy or stupid trade. I may or may not already be in the trades i recommend. I may or may not trade the stocks i recommend. Due diligence is required on your part and the usual disclaimer that i am not responsible for your losses always apply. I have no affiliations with any broker/dealer and all posts are for educational purposes only. Remember to 'refresh' the home page and the "Comments" pages frequently in order to receive updated posts. Let's rock!

Saturday, October 28, 2006

Monday day/swing trade: LMRA

LMRA closed @ 6.27

Buy the stock if it sees green, for a daytrade. If it's very strong throughout the day, then it can be held to the next day.

The technicals are showing there will likely be a bounce on Monday. Watch it turn green, or buy the morning dip (if any).

16 Comments:

Blogger beanie11111 said...

Make sure you are able to sell the stock if i'm wrong. If it goes below $6 after the first 30 minutes of trading, you need to start thinking, "Something's wrong."

Good luck.

If i'm right about the bounce, it could be a big bounce.

Sat Oct 28, 12:52:00 AM EDT  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

dude, i got google reader, nice!

Sat Oct 28, 01:15:00 AM EDT  
Blogger beanie11111 said...

Certainly is! Only problem is, you won't get the 'comments' . Gotta come back here and refresh.

Sat Oct 28, 02:55:00 AM EDT  
Blogger beanie11111 said...

NOTE:

hey folks, please go this google and get the Google reader.
http://labs.google.com/
(it's the second down on the left hand side of the page)

Once you download the software (you have to have a google email account), you put in 'beanie11111' as your subscription. You can also put in as many websites as you want.

All updated posts (with exception of the 'Comments', which you need to come back here and refresh manually) on my blog will then be sent over to your google reader. Very nice. You'll love it.

All i can say is, don't trade if you don't own a Google Reader. It will save you alot of time if you normally visit several websites.

Sat Oct 28, 03:00:00 AM EDT  
Blogger beanie11111 said...

To come back here, or to any website, all you have to do is to click onto the title of the post in your reader.

The Reader saves so much time. If you folks don't use a Reader, you are definately at a disadvantage as a trader.

Sat Oct 28, 03:07:00 AM EDT  
Blogger beanie11111 said...

I'm seeing Bill O'Reilly on Oprah yesterday trying to defend our business in Iraq and claiming that Pres. Bush told us the truth the whole time. Maybe Mr. Bush was totally honest but are we in Iraq for (1) weapons of mass destruction, (2) fight terrorism, or (3) to free the iraqi people??? None of the three makes a whole lot of sense to me in relation to Iraq. In my opinion, even though Bill O'Reilly is a good/great debater - albeit an irritating one, he isn't the most logical as he try to defend what i find as logically indefensible. A wrong is still a wrong, and he's trying to turn that into a right with his clever debating skills. We have no business being in Iraq. We have business being in Afghanistan, but not Iraq. Even our own Senate has found that al Qaeda has nothing to do with Iraq. This war has costed us Americans so much money already, thousands of American soldiers, and almost over 100,000 iraqis (by some figures), most of which are innocent civilians. Bill O'Reilly to me is a great communicator, but not necessarily a logical person in some of his views. He is set in his own ways and ideologies and uses his finesse in communication to defend those views, logical or not. That's why he tends to cause alot of tension amongst alot of people who listen to him.

What i'm trying to say to you is just because someone is a great debater or highly educated doesn't necessary MAKE THEM RIGHT. This applies to trading stocks as well. We know lots of traders who are technical analysis experts and they talk like they're experts and like they may even have several degrees; it doesn't mean they can successfully make money or more money in the markets than the average joe. Likewise, we know lots of "fundamentals" analysts who can make their case like they're university professors; it doesn't mean they are right as the markets can beat them to a pulp. How many times do you see expert economists telling us the direction of the economy; and yet proven wrong 6-12 months later.

I believe that in trading, you have to figure out your own approach that is the most logical to you. Above all, it has to be logical. What i find is that the simple approach is usually the most logical. You don't have to learn about hundreds of technical indicators to make money. You can definately impress your friends but it doesn't necessarily mean the market will succumb to your knowledge. If you do know alot, you may sound like an expert (which is of course fine and it could certainly help you and give you more ideas) but it doesn't necessarily mean you'll make money or that your approach is logical. Please don't go out there attending seminars that cost tens of thousands of dollars, unless you can really afford it. You can learn just about everything on the internet these days. The vendors may sound like experts but it doesn't mean their approach is the most logical nor does it mean learning from their expertise will make you money.

You really have to learn a bit here and there and then formulate your own approach by combining things here and there. It has to make sense to you and it has to be logical. You'll know your approach is logical if it starts to consistently make you money in the markets. I know i keep using the word "logical" and you may not know what i mean by that. I think eventually as you develop your approach to trading and the light bulb goes on, you'll know what i mean.

Going back to Bill O'Reilly and Iraq, lots of people have different views (just like lots of people have different trading approaches), some are logical and sensible and some are not. I am nowhere near a great debater, nowhere near understanding politics, and possibly nowhere nearly as educated as Mr. O'Reilly is, but hearing the Bush Administration's formulation of excuses for the war in Iraq, the reasons simply don't make much logical sense to me. But one thing i do know is logic. I don't care if 10 Harvardian professors give those same reasons in a more expertly-worded way. If it doesn't make logical sense to me, i don't buy it. Maybe you might disagree with me and think i should shut my mouth like the Dixie Chicks oughta shut their mouths. But i hope we still live in a democracy where we can express our views and opinions without being patronized or deemed disloyal. I am always loyal to the democratic process of our country, but rarely am i loyal to things that doesn't make much logical sense to me.

Maybe there are other perhaps noble reasons that our government didn't or couldn't tell us on why we went to Iraq. Perhaps. But the reasons i've heard, i'm just not convinced because for several years now it hasn't made sufficient logical sense to me. In fact, it sounded almost anti-logic to me. Don't get me wrong, i do respect Mr. Bush (even though i may be in disagreement with his policies) because he is a confident man and he made alot of money in the stock market.

Rock on!

Sat Oct 28, 02:10:00 PM EDT  
Blogger beanie11111 said...

SAI: Doing nicely. If you held you made money. Going higher.

Sat Oct 28, 02:28:00 PM EDT  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I am looking at AKAMai, I think it's too expensive- it is too high pe- 131 and even the forward pe is about 79. I read the earnings report which says it
includes a one time tax benefit of $255 Million. If you exclude this one time tax benefit, the earnings is down by 95% from a year ago. If they are growing much more then you can justify
a high pe of even 40 but not 120 or 131. I got pe from CNBC-MSN money website.

Sat Oct 28, 04:17:00 PM EDT  
Blogger beanie11111 said...

sgv,

It is expensive, but so are most fast-growing companies. You're paying for future growth potential. AKAM is running on all cylinders. With respect to the tax benefit last quarter, everyone knew about that. Nobody actually believed that AKAM made 283 million in revenues and made 328 million in income last year. They are paying up AKAM because it is growing so fast and the sector/industry that AKAM is in. As the web grows, AKAM also grows.

I'll remind you that MSFT, when it was in its accelerated growth phase, it always appeared 'expensive'.

I certainly don't value AKAM at $50 today, but in the future (like 2-3 years from now), $50 will appear cheap. This assumes, of course, that AKAM keeps on delivering stellar numbers.

Sat Oct 28, 04:28:00 PM EDT  
Blogger beanie11111 said...

sgv,

also note that AKAM still has a couple of billions of carry forward losses that it hasn't used up yet. That's great for us investors. It means whenever they use the tax benefits they get to keep more of their income.

Sat Oct 28, 04:30:00 PM EDT  
Blogger beanie11111 said...

Do you believe in ghosts?

http://www.princeton.edu/~ccaro/mist_or_ghost.html

Make sure you turn on the volume on your computer. You might hear something too.

Sat Oct 28, 04:48:00 PM EDT  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Then, assuming AKAM do continue their
growth trend, how much do you think they will be in 1-2 years? $80-100?

Sat Oct 28, 05:43:00 PM EDT  
Blogger beanie11111 said...

sgv,

i'd say by the end of the 2nd year, AKAM could see north of $80. I expect a full blown bull market by then. I also expect AKAM to have made several acquisitions that will accelerate its earnings even more.

I think the 4th-6th year is where the bulk of the stock run will take place for those who got in this year.

Since AKAM is a midcap stock, i wouldn't be expecting huge gains within the next two years.

I plan on holding AKAM as an investment for at least 5 years, assuming it stays the leader.

Sat Oct 28, 11:47:00 PM EDT  
Blogger beanie11111 said...

LMRA: who the heck is buying premarket? Gosh, that certainly limits our profits. A dip is what i prefer to see.

Mon Oct 30, 08:40:00 AM EST  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Still looking at LMRA? Entry point?
Nice to see SAI hit a new high.

Mon Oct 30, 10:00:00 AM EST  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

something you should know about "beanie"

the little ad for Google in this thread make me think "beanie" is a paid shill working in some basement of wall st.

Thu Nov 02, 01:13:00 AM EST  

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