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The last few years have been great to me, as i was able to clobber the S&P500 many times in returns. But of course, you can't make a living trading the markets if you don't make great great returns. I'll try to give my readers trades that i think will make them money. However, you need to have money management skills, in order not to lose everything on a greedy or stupid trade. I may or may not already be in the trades i recommend. I may or may not trade the stocks i recommend. Due diligence is required on your part and the usual disclaimer that i am not responsible for your losses always apply. I have no affiliations with any broker/dealer and all posts are for educational purposes only. Remember to 'refresh' the home page and the "Comments" pages frequently in order to receive updated posts. Let's rock!

Wednesday, October 18, 2006

MRK for the diabetic.

MRK closed at $43.96 .

It's a great short term, intermediate term, and longer term play on their recent FDA approval for their diabetic drug. Of course, that's gonna make them alot of money.

MRK is trading at 52 week high right now. It appears that the biotechs/pharmas have been rallying for a week now. Could be the start of a trend.



23 Comments:

Blogger beanie11111 said...

Another pretty safe play.

Wed Oct 18, 01:11:00 AM EDT  
Blogger beanie11111 said...

If you gonna use margin trading (which i do not recommend unless you're certain we're in the beginning or middle of a bonafide bull market), it's best to buy big caps. With big caps, you can get out relatively unscathed if you sell quickly. (The only exception is if we get a market Crash before the market opens, in which case, you're dead meat whether you buy small or big caps. You'll probably get a margin call from your broker, and you're finished.) Small caps can really get you in trouble if you're margined and the market tanks big. You can't sleep, you can't eat, you can't think, you can't breath, and before you know it, you're broke and back to your day job you go.

Stay away from margin whenever possible. Let's say you have a million dollar portfolio that is 75% margined (meaning you borrow $750,000 from your broker to buy more stocks). A big Market Crash (like the one we had in 1987) would probably WIPE YOU OUT, EVEN BEFORE THE MARKET OPENS! (That's because many of your stocks would be sold automatically by your broker in premarket. Whether they sell them or not, you're still dead meat.) So, please always remember this possible scenerio whenever you decide to use margin. It's why some people end up jumping off buildings after a crash.

Wed Oct 18, 01:24:00 AM EDT  
Blogger beanie11111 said...

Time to buy stocks.

Wed Oct 18, 10:54:00 AM EDT  
Blogger beanie11111 said...

all buys should be for daytrading purposes. Dow 12000 is important resistance, so it won't be that easy to take it out.

Wed Oct 18, 11:17:00 AM EDT  
Blogger beanie11111 said...

It's all about RVBD! Techs are generally under pressure today. But not RVBD. That's the stock to focus on.

Wed Oct 18, 12:13:00 PM EDT  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I'm holding the 80$ put on AAPL for Oct. will it hold the next Earnings or should I sell now?

Wed Oct 18, 12:44:00 PM EDT  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

hey beanie..any thoughts on AKAM?

Wed Oct 18, 01:49:00 PM EDT  
Blogger beanie11111 said...

amir,

I sure don't know what AAPL is gonna say tonite. But they'll probably meet or beat expectations. They might lower their guidance though due to slower ipod growth (which is to be expected). So i don't know how the street will react. If you want to keep the puts, make sure it ain't too many to keep you sweatin.

Wed Oct 18, 02:21:00 PM EDT  
Blogger beanie11111 said...

anonymous,

I still like AKAM alot for the longer term.

Wed Oct 18, 02:22:00 PM EDT  
Blogger beanie11111 said...

AKAM is still feeling the effect of the downgrade.

I think it will have formed a short term bottom by the close of today or tomorrow morning.

Wed Oct 18, 02:25:00 PM EDT  
Blogger beanie11111 said...

EBAY/AAPL/AMD reports tonite. Are you sweatin yet?

We are at resistance in the markets. i sure hope AAPL and AMD impress tonite.

On a different note, our recommendation last nite of MRK is moving nicely. booyah!

Wed Oct 18, 02:52:00 PM EDT  
Blogger beanie11111 said...

Today's action is worrying me just a bit. Techs and semis are down, while biotechs/pharmas have been up for a little over a week now. Are traders anticipating a recession next year?

stay tuned..

Wed Oct 18, 02:54:00 PM EDT  
Blogger beanie11111 said...

AKAM: There's just alot of selling today (which begets more selling and shorting). No buyers all day. Makes me wonder if there is impending bad news that someone was privy to. Other than that, there is the 50dayMA at 44.30 area. If this earnings play out like the previous, it is likely we will hit 44 (possibly 42) before earnings.

I still have a long position.

Wed Oct 18, 03:46:00 PM EDT  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I can relate to your thoughts about buying stocks on margins. I try not to except if I really feel "lucky" like when bought 200 shares of RVBD last Oct. 2nd for 16.60, still holding it and meter is running on the interest. When do you think I should unload this lot?

Wed Oct 18, 04:42:00 PM EDT  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Sold my AAPL puts before ER. Was too risky. Why would I risk loosing all the position on an ER of which I have no idea.
I'm thinking going long SNDK before ER. They make the NAND in all Ipods, they have their own MP3 player which is doing good, and they will be supplying NAND for smartphones digicams galore. What say you binny?

Wed Oct 18, 05:35:00 PM EDT  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

If AAPL beat, SNDK should beat as well. though AAPL was mainly due to MAC.

Wed Oct 18, 05:36:00 PM EDT  
Blogger beanie11111 said...

Amir,

good thing you got out of AAPL puts. lol

I like SNDK alot too, and believe they will beat and guide higher. Still, i am feeling a bit risk adverse as we are still in October The Evil Month.

Wed Oct 18, 06:51:00 PM EDT  
Blogger RA S said...

Thanks for the lesson on using margins to buy with. There are alot of new players out there that don't realize the risks. A margin account is great for day trading to turn around trades sooner than cash accounts permit. But don't be tempted to use margins if possible.

Wed Oct 18, 06:54:00 PM EDT  
Blogger beanie11111 said...

AKAM: ok, now we know why it tanked and never looked back today. There was a rumor going around that GOOG would probably acquire Limelight, a formidable competitor to AKAM. That rumor, however, has been around for some time now and why they chose to act today is beyond me. If AKAM management is smart, they would think about acquiring Limelight just to keep the pest at bay. If GOOG does indeed gets Limelight, there will probably be alot of pressure on AKAM for some time. That's how scary this Google monster is. For example, i think Google will eventually wipe out Yahoo. The signs are already on the wall. Google's Gmail is so freakin awesome! Google Adsense rules and there's nothing Yahoo can do about it. Yahoo is coming out with a supposedly competiting product called 'Panama'. Yeah right. That might keep them alive for awhile, but eventually Google wins. Microsoft should be really scared right now. They too could become an eventual extinct dinosaur. Do you know that Gmail has an internal word processor and a spreadsheet? Yes, you can save a bunch of spreadsheets and word documents into your gmail account too! Google is one scary animal.

Long Long GOOG for the long long term.

Wed Oct 18, 06:58:00 PM EDT  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hi Beanie,
I've had difficulty logging on these past two days. Miss me? Do
you still like SAI stock ? Please let me know...thanks,Pamfla

Wed Oct 18, 11:35:00 PM EDT  
Blogger beanie11111 said...

AKAM: As much as i like this stock, reading the earnings report out of Limelight makes me go sweatin.
http://www.limelightnetworks.com/news/pr.2006.07.20.html

Limelight is growing rather fast, but AKAM is still the undisputed leader. If, on the other hand, Google buys Limey, i'd be a bit worried.

Thu Oct 19, 01:19:00 AM EDT  
Blogger beanie11111 said...

pamfla,

yes i still like SAI.

Thu Oct 19, 01:22:00 AM EDT  
Blogger beanie11111 said...

Investing with margin:

Remember earlier i gave the example of a 1 million dollar portfolio where i said you borrow 75% margin to buy more stocks. I didn't mean you started out with 250k and borrow 750k. (that would be using 300% margin! If you do this kind of idiotic move, you arse will be handed to you even if the market just run normally without a crash!) What i meant was you have 1 million portfolio and you borrow another 750k (75% margined), for a total of 1.75 million portfolio of stocks. A nasty crash will probably still wipe you out in 1 day.

Using margin for daytrading is ok; even so i normally don't use more than 50% and i watch my stocks like a hawk from opening to closing of the market. And i don't usually use margin on low float low priced stocks. (How many people got hurt when CAFE was halted? Yikes!) I use margin swingtrading sometimes when i feel a raging bull run on a larger cap stock.

Good luck.

Thu Oct 19, 01:39:00 AM EDT  

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