- Name: beanie11111
- Location: USA
The last few years have been great to me, as i was able to clobber the S&P500 many times in returns. But of course, you can't make a living trading the markets if you don't make great great returns.
I'll try to give my readers trades that i think will make them money. However, you need to have money management skills, in order not to lose everything on a greedy or stupid trade. I may or may not already be in the trades i recommend. I may or may not trade the stocks i recommend. Due diligence is required on your part and the usual disclaimer that i am not responsible for your losses always apply. I have no affiliations with any broker/dealer and all posts are for educational purposes only. Remember to 'refresh' the home page and the "Comments" pages frequently in order to receive updated posts.
Let's rock!
View my complete profile
106 Comments:
hello board, I,m bored.
Beanie,
Is ARUN a buy? Thanks for your insight.
ICE, AAPL, RIMM, MA
Great companies! Great Investments!
Interestingly, when Dow was at 13000, % of stocks above 200 day MA was 75.
Now Dow at 13500, % of stocks above 200 day MA is 64.
anon,
ARUN looks good technically (but a bit overbought short term). However, it is a very expensive stock relative to earnings. CHKP is another internet security stock. Security stocks can only grow to a certain point (like 5 billion market cap) and then they pretty much stop growing. So maximum i see ARUN going to is maybe $70 if it can get to $1 billion in revenues, where it currently stands at $35 million.
Beannie,
Thanks for you reply. How about RVBD?
The commodities exchanges - CME, ICE and BOT have been going fabulous.
But stock exchanges - NYX and NDAQ have been lagging.
Do you think that boom for NYX will drip over to NDAQ. I think thats undervalued too.
Of these stocks, which is a better buy? jsda, crox, bwld?
STP: what is the next support ?
HEHEHEHE. Hope we are not going to 13600 today.
I am nibbling some more stocks here.
BUying GOOG on dips all the way
INFN trading 17
penny HDTV big vol .111
NFI 9.67 on big vol
DESC .828 beatendown
OCTL moving from yesteday 1.55
Some ideas for a slow day
This comment has been removed by the author.
How low will NYX go !!!!!!
Help
That NYX is paying a dividend makes me bearish on the stock. This company will trade lower. The growth story is nearing a close.
Very True BTrader, They need their cash to make more acquisitions. NYX stock is undervalued compared to other exchanges. A stock purchase would be expensive.
NFI have moved a lot like 4% every day for so long :)
ANO isn't behaving badly either. just another idea. (sorry i typed ONT in place of ANO in my prev post, i've deleted it.)
INFN moving well on huge volume now over 18 hod 18.20
NYX has a 34 million share lockup coming off tomorrow. Did you know that Beanie?
Andy, they seem to have timed the dividend announcment at the same time to provide downside protection
INFN to 19
trailing stop tightened,will catch it again another day maybe,2 bucks so far
holy sh%t!! NYX is a great buy here below 82!!!!!!
Get freakin on board!!!
20 whoa INFN
Cant wait for Margin calls to be issued.
If you need a quick double – up ..... (3 to 10 day time frame) buy the GAS JULY 45 call 0.80 sell 1.90 = 90/10....100/0
Zee
Downside risk = zero , none, there aren’t any...it’s a perfect investment....
Just picked up some GAS July 45 calls at 0.9, Z. Should see a pop very soon.
Its so hard not buying here but I think most of us know its going lower.
Gosu, sticking to 12,900?
I love seeing FWLT, MDR, JEC, DE, GS, ATI going down.....
There are going to be some AWESOME deals in about a month or so.
Start buying at 13100, double down at 12900.
HEHEHEHEHEE...
CNBC anchors speaking like their mothers died.
Anybody who is in the market for longer than oh lets say...
10 f'n minutes, should be happy as a pig in sh*t with this pullback.
This is a market event, not an economic one. I aint saying to buy, I am saying make a list, check it twice and decide which ones will be making 100% returns in second half 07.
For over a month now, the level of 46.5 on QQQQ.
Every single time, QQQQ goes below 46.5, it just comes back up.
For over a month.
Has M posted his speculative pick?
Is ENCY a good buy now?
TIA
my god, big sale everywhere.
NYX
FWLT
GOOG
everything,,,
NYX is the mother of all buys here at 81.
holy cow!
beanie,
any recommendations on NYX call options?
TIA
Jake,
Are you still in ENCY - is this a good time to get in? Why the drop today, by the way?
Do not want to talk too much technical here. But there is this wicked accurate cycle called the Kitchin Cycle.
Within this cycle - usually 4 years, to 4 1/2 we have what are called 9 Wall Cycles.
Right now we have run the upward track of the final 9.
Cycle work states, the low of the final Wall will come close to the low of the first Wall. So go back 4 to 4 1/2 years and that is were we could be headed.
Wall 9s always end in stock market collapses, big ones.
Today does not tell me if this is it, as the cycle work was calling for a 14100 INDU first, but it was within its range.
Be careful is all I want to say.
West
Beannie, you took the words right out of my mouth>>>>>Really big sale.....hey Johnny, good looking out.....we are going to more than double on that fine gem....GAS july 45 calls ...looks like we get a bounce tomorrow, then probably more profit taking in the coming days, once that dow is below the 20 day, like today, it should retest the 20 and then it’s down to test the 50 day ....zee
From where I sit, this is looking more like a bathroom cycle than a kitchin cycle. LOL!
Ted
Go MVIS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Whos your daddy:
gosu said...
I don't know about S&P, but I think Dow will see 13600 before any correction to 12900.
Wed May 02, 01:01:00 PM EDT
Wow, for a second there I thought NYX had found a bottom at 80.3 - 80.4... climbed back up above 81. Then the trap door opened and right back down to the low low 80s... if tomorrow's a down day, i don't know what will support NYX.
At least AAPL closed up
Anon queries:
Jake,
Are you still in ENCY - is this a good time to get in? Why the drop today, by the way?
I have a confession to make. This has been a busy week, and one of the things I missed was ENCY. It just took off and I thought it was too late to get it. Luckily, I was already in DNDN before it took off (since mid sixes), so I was already with M on that one. All his others I was late for.
As to why it traded down today, I'm not sure, as I just got in, but hasn't it been up some 30% this week? Probably just market related as a first guess...
Anon cheers:
Go MVIS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I wish I was able to say I was smart in keeping this one, but the truth is, I was too dumb to sell when I probably should've ($5.50), and today, it's my sole oasis on the volcanic plane.
I am getting very close to backing up the truck and overextending myself on MON... especially if it gets to the 57.25 level.
Zee, your GAS looks like it has a teeny bit o' support at $42 fitty.
Just a teeny bit.
___________________
did you get my post on Ann of Avonlea??
Holy crappl, both Craapl and Crox o' crap are up today.
Strong strong.
JakeGint,
Your sole oasis will print $10 soon.
Henry Clews wrote in Twenty-Eight Years in Wall Street (1887):
But few gain sufficient experience in Wall Street to command success until they reach that period of life in which they have one foot in the grave. When this time comes, these old veterans of the Street usually spend long intervals of repose at their comfortable homes, and in times of panic, which recur sometimes oftener than once a year, these old fellows will be seen in Wall Street, hobbling down on their canes to their brokers’ offices.
Then they always buy good stocks to the extent of their bank balances, which they have been permitted to accumulate for just such an emergency. The panic usually rages until enough of these cash purchases of stock is made to afford a big “rake in.” When the panic has spent its force, these old fellows, who have been resting judiciously on their oars in expectation of the inevitable event, which usually returns with the regularity of the seasons, quickly realize, deposit their profits with their bankers, or the overplus thereof, after purchasing more real estate that is on the up grade, for permanent investment, and retire for another season to the quietude of their splendid homes and the bosoms of their happy families.
Another huge distribution day for the NAZ..
My cube puts up over 56% today alone, SMSI short up 15% in two days, I enjoyed the drop but tommorrow is a another day.
shoulda stayed short jakey, or averaged up, you knew it was coming.
Technicaly, we should close down tommorrow @ 46 or lower on the cubes, but I dont know if they'll let it happen. Like I said yesterday cube lower trendline @ $46.40 and it saw 46.32 so have to see how the open is tommorrow.
All indicators show downside move continuing but i'd be suprised to see it. A test of the $45.50 area would be reassuring for the next move either way, but id be shocked to see another big down day tommorrow.
So Johhny... are ya saying "buy the dips?"
And then sell and put the cash in REITs?
Catchy... I was away all day, so my stops did all my trading for me today.
I'm not gonna call a trend change until the trend has changed ... for sure.
I had thought you were short the cubes with me a few weeks ago?
I agree no trend change yet, correction yes, maybe small, maybe bigger, but bear market? HELL NO.
I just enjoyed the puts going green again, I doubled up on em a few days ago trying to average out and ....wham, big drop. I'll take it tho.
I'll just keep charting it and playing support, or breakdowns til it tells me which way its goin. I got no problem takin a loss when i'm wrong and goin the other way. I f this thing holds at a certain support, trendline etc, I got no prob. goin long. if it breaks some solid supports , i got no problems loading up puts or shorts.
I'd actually like to see a decent correction so I can afford to buy some of the companies I like. just too expensive right now.
What's a little odd to me is that both gold and silver got whacked today too... usually they're a hedge against these big down days...
Almost like the market was throwing the baby out w. the bath water.
Yeah, I was short the Cubes a few weeks back... but I was attempting a longer term discipline... I just can't be there every minute to watch the trades, so I'm giving them more rope...
You know what they say, more rope makes for a cleaner break when the noose tightens...
aaah crap...my ENCY stopped out...pity seeing those gains evaporate like that
Well Jake, what I really mean to say is to read that book. It's an absolute classic.
Even though it was written about the 19th Century market, all the lessons still applies. Basic economics and human nature do not change.
Don't trade another share until you've read it...
This link expires at 6:30 pst...
http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/stockresearch/screener/afterhours.asp?count=25&skip=150&sortd=0&sort=54
there’s buying going on in After hours....NSM up 10%...and that’s helping a lot of other Semi’s, including TXN,SNDK , some energy stocks are up, that should help me with my Utility calls. Even XLU is up +0.10. ECA up 0.70.
zee
jake, .. 42.5 >> for GAS? >> that’s nearly impossible.
Johnny,
I'm a huge fan of "Reminisces of a Stock Operator" -- where would you put that book in relation to yours?
(And is the book you've recommended still in print?)
Zee --
Just saying... if it gets there, and it may not... there's bedrock support at that point.
I'll still be watching it tomorrow morning, no worries... I've plenty of "stopped" powder in hand... lol.
Jake, I read Reminisces of a Stock Operator many years ago. Now that you mentioned it, I should read it again to refresh my memory.
In terms of the differences between the two books, it seems like Henry Clews' book take a more macro view of the market. You can find it at:
Amazon
gosu said...
Whos your daddy:
gosu said...
I don't know about S&P, but I think Dow will see 13600 before any correction to 12900.
Wed May 02, 01:01:00 PM EDT
Thu Jun 07, 03:59:00 PM EDT
Thanks Gosu for guiding us through these difficult times! Often we get caught up in our own little world and we sometimes overlook your accurate market insights. But just remember that you are very much appreciated around here!
Ted
hola, amigos.
sorry, was swamped at work to post anything over the last couple of days.
re: ENCY'S drop today, it was due to a rumor posted on a little-known website (knobias.com) that said ENCY was sinking because the FDA didn't approve its drug. it was/is a hoax, but appeared to be well orchestrated since it took out a bunch of stops all the way down to $3.80. could be a bullish signal before D-Day next week. i'd watch the action tomorrow for direction: a bunch of investors might take it higher to make sure they're in on the action in case good news hits over the weekend. if it drops lower (on major volume) tomorrow on a green day, you might wanna stay away from it. remember, if it gets approved early next week, hold until 6/18 for GILD decision by FDA. if GILD gets an approvable, ENCY will see $15 soon.
VG = bottomed. jump into it. sell on june 25. hard target $4.00
my speculative penny stock hasn't been fully analyzed yet by my buddy (he's lazy). hopefully (and if it's worth a post), i'll post it tomorrow...
oh yeah...we should expect another positive PR from CRME next week. could see another small pop then.
good luck...
m
M, Thanks the update. I was one of the unfortunate folks that stopped out at 3.80. How do you think ENCY would react if GILD got approvable first?
Ted...lol it's really hard to catch sarcasm on the internet but whatever you meant you still crack me up.
My Experience:
Headlines like "Dow down 400 points in 3 days" are the ideal buy signal, short term.
I think I am going to like "Ted," anonymous or not.
Holy crapoli... where's Wal?
The dollar gained almost a full yen last night!
Carry on!
Jake,
I just went long the yen, looking for a few point gain next few weeks or so. Just my uneducated opinion tho.
I think the carry trade unwinds some next week. Hope so at least. If not the call prices are pretty decent right now. Sept. 83-84, or a 84-88 spread.
Stocks: BHI - nice 3 day candle pattern , easy stops @ $81-82 , at lower trendline now, should be a 5% upside min, or wait for BO above $86.25 . lotsa selling volume lately so watch out.
ZQK- bought yesterday - at lower trendline as well, strong close yesterday, but only short term play. easy stops as well, 8-10% upside
oh yeah, THC [ gotta love that symbol] in a nice consolidation pattern, play break either way. But downside seems more reward less risk play.
At long term support, but chart action, volume and patterns lead me to think downside breakout likely, Target @ $6.10
Due your own homework on all your holdings.
"futures up on bargain hunting" ???
I dont' know if its bargain hunting or what, but with NYSE Short Interest at almost a five year high, the cover rally will be fast and furious. If you can pick it, easy quick money on upside short options. Better be Damn sure about your position tho, cause its gonna be swift either way.
Catcher reports:
I just went long the yen, looking for a few point gain next few weeks or so.
Yikes! You're a braver man than I, Gunga Din.
I should say "braver man than me."
Don't want to contribute to the erosion of the language arts.
I like the looks of the Yen chart. Lotsa Positive divergences, rounded bottom. Decent pattern play I think.
Keep an eye on WIFI Israeli ALVR, boys & girls... it's had some mojo here, and if it breaks $9.40 on volume, it could be visiting Belmont Race Track this weekend....
lane,
if GILD gets an approvable before ENCY's decision, we're off to the races with ENCY. although i doubt that's gonna happen.
people,
anyone wanna play AVNR today? good news on zenvia in late stage trial. could jump later. now at $3.60
later,
m
ZQK- bought yesterday - at lower trendline as well, strong close yesterday, but only short term play. easy stops as well, 8-10% upside
Fri Jun 08, 09:07:00 AM EDT"
Up a nice 6.5% this AM,
BHI not working, could be a rising wedge breakdown tho? have to watch and see, [ 5 point downside target]
closed 1/2 puts first thing this am, hold rest to see close of day.
ALVR's broken near term resistance at 9.40, now breaking intermediate term (one year) resistance at 9.69, and heading for long term lid of $11.
Gaining volume, as well.
Stopped out og ZQK little over $14. with the gap out and market turning, tight stops work well. I'll look to re-enter another day maybe.
DOW goin red QUICKLY.
DOW red for all of about 10 seconds, and @ 12 points, what a f*&*ing shakout!
I think here comes next wave of selling on CUBES, some serious indecision goin on, low volume rise?
time to gamble.
As I said yesterday:
gosu said...
For over a month now, the level of 46.5 on QQQQ.
Every single time, QQQQ goes below 46.5, it just comes back up.
For over a month.
Thu Jun 07, 02:46:00 PM EDT
46.5 is like a magnet for QQQQ.
If it goes up to 47.5, it quickly gets back to 46.5
If it goes down below, it comes back to its sweet level of 46.5.
And yes, for over a month.
M
What happened to your pick 'HDY'? It dropped further today without any adverse news. Would appreciate any insight into the real story.
Thanks
CMS
gosu said...
As I said yesterday:
gosu said...
For over a month now, the level of 46.5 on QQQQ.
Every single time, QQQQ goes below 46.5, it just comes back up.
For over a month.
Thu Jun 07, 02:46:00 PM EDT
46.5 is like a magnet for QQQQ.
If it goes up to 47.5, it quickly gets back to 46.5
If it goes down below, it comes back to its sweet level of 46.5.
And yes, for over a month.
Fri Jun 08, 12:09:00 PM EDT"
Gosu,
its called the MAX PAIN THEORY. The makers will try to bring the price in as close to the middle of the majority of strike prices of the outstanding option contracts expiring that month. That way most expire worthless and they pocket all the cash they made selling them to the public.
Thats the short simple explanation of the theory at least. Holds pretty true most of the time tho.
a good way to play short term options if you learn it.
I frequent this board alot: www.tradertim.blogspot.com
Not too much to get stocks to short but they got interesting dialogue over there. lol
Say most calls expiring this month @ $47, most puts at $ 46, hence a close at $46.50 leaves most worthless. sometimes they'll let one or the other close ITM a little if the majority is the other way. Take the bigger side of the profit.
You follow what I mean?
MAX Pain theory
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maximum_pain_theory
Very Interesting. WOW!
Zee,
Should we still hold on to GAS July 45?
TIA
That was a very clear explanation of MPT. Thanks Gosu!
Sue
Gosu
If you can follow the MPT and decipher the most likely strike pain price, and the equity is far enough away from it[ from .5 to 1.5 points] you can buy some options, a week, few days out that you know/think/hope will be of value according to the pain price.
Ive done this with varying degrees of success a few times and am still trying to learn it a little better. Been burned a few times but using small wagers can usually turn 10-25% in a few days, sometimes more depending on the play/risk.
Also did it with calls in may, and took @ 12% profit only to see the damn thing almost double then. Left alot of profit on the table,
but I only use a little money I can stand to lose, so the actual cash profits are usually not large, [nor the losses, which is more important to me]
Good work catcher, I think I follow QQQQ so much that I know the pain point. May be for some other stocks like GS or ICE.
I Need some more work here.
Thanks.
Cubes just broke to the upside after all day base.
Not a bad call this morning:
gosu said...
My Experience:
Headlines like "Dow down 400 points in 3 days" are the ideal buy signal, short term.
Fri Jun 08, 08:25:00 AM EDT
congress might reverse online gambling ban in U.S. Any recommendations on how to play this?
TIA
FWLT nice.
NYX nice.
Bargains galore.
Anon:
I like "Partypoker.net" m'self.
Probably a short term sell on the casino's though.
Anon...hold those GAS calls till they get to 1.90... i picked up more, this morning...volume on GAS is usually just me, so today and yesterday, vol up 2000%...bought NYX at 80.25....jul 75/80 calls ..BEN and TSL look xlnt...ETR, bounced right off the 0.61 fib at 104 , waiting for RAI at 60.50, to get in
zee
Merger Monday, so i bought TSL jul40 call 3.70, downside tsl tests 37 or 39, upside, $ssec gaps up Sunday night and brings TSL with it.
Zee
ONT appears to be conlidating recent gains nicely and is attempting to put in a bottom above the 50-day SMA which has offered strong support for the better part of the past year.
VG...nice!
Max = my new hero!!!
Loading up on DDM right here...
Last nite, I posted some comments at www.tradertim.blogspot.com of the stocks i believe have bottomed.
It might pay to read it.
Several of those stock flew hard today.
Pr said...
INFN moving well on huge volume now over 18 hod 18.20
Thu Jun 07, 12:04:00 PM EDT
Now that's a move that makes following 1st/2nd day ipo's worthwhile.
Up some afterhours to 25.60
Tim Knight wrote:
And, lastly, Beanie11111 declared the bottom for a number of stocks: "...AKAM has bottomed...SBUX has bottomed.....WFMI has bottomed." As a follow-up, in the mere four days since that post, those stocks have declined 3.2%, 5.9%, and 6.5%, respectively. So I guess some people have different understanding of bottoms than others.
If Beanie called your stock a bottom watch out!!! Remember BEANIE called SOLF a bottom. Now its down hard today. I guess Tim's right, Beanie thinks bottom is opportunity to short.
Ahh, an anonymous DH.
How brave of you.
I guess it was a mistake to allow the anons back on, Beanz.
Nasty feckers, to a one.
anon,
actually Tim is eating crow (or will soon be) as AKAM, WFMI, and SBUX have indeed bottomed.
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