The last few years have been great to me, as i was able to clobber the S&P500 many times in returns. But of course, you can't make a living trading the markets if you don't make great great returns. I'll try to give my readers trades that i think will make them money. However, you need to have money management skills, in order not to lose everything on a greedy or stupid trade. I may or may not already be in the trades i recommend. I may or may not trade the stocks i recommend. Due diligence is required on your part and the usual disclaimer that i am not responsible for your losses always apply. I have no affiliations with any broker/dealer and all posts are for educational purposes only. Remember to 'refresh' the home page and the "Comments" pages frequently in order to receive updated posts. Let's rock!
posted by beanie11111 | 9:48 AM
62 Comments:
Beanie,
Hey, today the market will be kinda slow being a holiday?
Pamfla
nyx up over 7 bucks today, has to be a short at 95, yes?
short GIGM for next week. going below 10.
Beanie, is it good price for divx and rvbd at the moment?
pamfla,
yeah. Also, most fridays are slow days
NYX: please do yourselves a favor and buy at least 100 shares and hold it for 1-2 years. You be happy.
GIGM: Congrats if you bought the dip. Morning dips are great buys for a daytrade.
RVBD/DIVX: are not quite buys yet. They are overbought short term, and Cramer told his audience to take profits just yesterday.
Beanie
Need your opinion about GIGM.
Not sure what to do? I saw the bearish engulfing yesterday, but today I think it is bullish harami??!!
beanie,
what is the min. amount of money you think someone would need to trade full time? Obviously it's a very vague question (because it would depend on your returns) but just wondering what you think....thanks,
-Mark
pamfla,
do you want to kick yourself now for selling EFUT due to impatience? :)
GIGM: if it goes below today's low, i'd be worried. Else, hold on.
What do you think of LMRA at these levels?
mark,
Because of the new NASD rule of the 25k requirement, i'd say 30k is needed to daytrade. If you don't have 30k (or 25k), you daytrading is very limited. Even though it's limited, you can still make a living if you do well-planned daytrades/swingtrades.
With the new NASD rules, you can only make a max of 3 roundtrips every five consecutive trading days. This new rule actually hurts daytraders. When i started out, we didn't have that rule and you could still make a living with 20k (or less) starting amount.
I would say that if you're good, you don't need to start with alot. But if you're average or worst, i say you will probably need to funnel more money into your account on an occasional basis.
Alot of traders start small and build their account up.
When i started, i started small (because that was all i had!) . Even before i had $25,000 i started daytrading full time. I had several bad years before that as i was learning. I had to add more money into my account on several occasions. Once i started daytrading full time, i tried to make some money everyday and transfer some of that to my bank account everyday, so i can pay my bills. For example, i would take out 50% of my earnings everyday or so for personal expenses. It was tough, but i had no choice because i didn't want to work for anyone and i was very passionate about the markets. Basically, i went into full time daytrading without any lifeboat! It was swim or drown but i knew i wouldn't want to do anything else. lol
I highly recommend you folks to take some of the profits (25-50%) on any single trade you make and have that profit sent to your bank account for saving or for living expenses. That way, you have some REWARD for your hard work and it keeps you going. You also value your trading account and your daytrading or swingtrading or whatever alot more, and you won't trade as stupidly as you would if there were no rewards.
EFUT: I am starting to think that traders could play this like they played ANTP 2 years ago. If so, EFUT could see north of $50.
EFUT: do you dare to hold some shares for 3 months? You could be greatly rewarded. Could.
mark,
the only way you know if you can trade full time is if your earnings you make from trading can pay all your bills and still leave enough for taxes and some to grow your account. If you can do that for 2 years straight, i think you are ready for full time trading.
Thanks for the response beanie, you're awesome. I do know about the new NASD round trip rule, and I agree that it stinks because unfortunately I don't have the $25k to trade full-time and at this point I'm still learning. Also, unfortunately, being so limited in the # of trades you can make (rountrips) limits your capacity to make a lot of successful (small) trades. I'm quite sick of my job and the fact that I'm making a lot of money for my company and they gave me a terrible raise this year. The whole idea of working for myself & learning about stocks really appeals to me. If you don't mind me asking, how long have you been trading?
Thanks again for your response, it's greatly appreciated.
-mark
mark,
i'd say about 8 years or so. I started out just goofing around (buying penny stocks, hold, and pray) for about first 2 years but not fulltime trading.
i think that's about right. Can't be too sure. I gotta remove my mercury amalgams from my teeth. lol
beanie,
ah, there's the rub...you said that you need to trade for 2 years...but it's very difficult to trade with any seriousness when you have a full-time day job. While I do have the ability to slightly follow the market/stocks depending on how busy I am at work, I'm extremely limited because of work.
mark,
the one advice i can give ya in your journey to figure out your holy grail of trading is to stay away from penny stock. Penny stocks deprive you of your precious money and your precious time. You will NOT learn anything about the stock market by dabbling into that sordid world. I've been there and i'm tellin ya not to be in that pathetic world.
mark,
Some traders who want to trade fulltime they get around that by working a swing shift or a graveyard shift, instead of the typical dayshift.
Because you have a job and have less than 25k, you should stick to swingtrading or longer term trades for awhile.
thanks again beanie,
yes, I stay away from penny stocks, i agree they are dangerous. However, some of these very volatile small-cap stocks are very dangerous as well (ie, EFUT) :) I want to buy, I want to....but I'm thinking too much risk for me. You know what they say, hindsight is 20/20.
-mark
mark,
the first 2 hours of trading and the last 1 hour are the most important. Some traders prefer to trade the last hour and let their trades carry over to the next day.
On EFUT. I already checked their fundementals. It is not really overvalued. I look at their float and the outstanding shares and their market capitalization. Yesterday's and today's trading volume indicates alot of interest. So i know it won't quickly crap out. It is a very volatile stock. That's why i say to play small. As long as you play small enough, you should be ok.
wow, it appears Pres Bush has changed his tone alot. He is not as arrogant as before.
When you say 3 round trades, it means same stock buy and sell (or the otherway) is a round trade rt?
Lets say I do that and limit myself to 3 trades a week (5 days), will I still get marked as a pattern day trader or is this at the traders discretion?
Awesome blog!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Beanie,
LOL very FR_________G Funny!!! Regarding EFUT, patience is NOT one of my positive assets, I'm sure your aware...
Your Board is flowing man...like wow! Beanster, Need to unload a
1/1 in downtown Miami...overlooking the New American Airlines arena ..GO MIAMI HEAT # 1. It's on the 12th floor, APT. 1204...purchased in Jan. for 272,500. Gonna palce an ad for sale by owner, Moving sale, Downtown Miami. Real Estate market is flat now yey taxes killed me there -mortagage went from 1,440.00
to 1,840.00 in Oct.2006
Currently rented till Jan. 2007
1/1 in downtown go for 1,300.00 to maybe 1,400.00 -Close to 800.00 in the hole...
EFUT blows LOL well - attempting damage controll with U BLRC HOLD?
PAMFLA YOU DO ROCK
anonymous,
Here's the pattern day trader rule:
http://www.nasd.com/InvestorInformation/MarketsTrading/DayTradingInformation/NASDW_005906
please note this only applies to buying and selling the SAME stock (or shorting and covering) in the SAME day. If you buy a stock today and sell it tomorrow (or short and cover), that is not a day-trade. hope that helps,
-mark
anonymous,
also please note that it's a "rolling" 5 day period, so if all your 3 day-trades happen on friday (today) you have to wait the rolling period....or call whoever your broker is and they can probably explain it better than me.
-mark
pamfla,
lol. BRLC is ok to hold. But how come you have so much patience with BRLC and not with EFUT??
EFUT 18.50...shoot me.
-mark
anonymous,
be sure you fully understand the daytrading rule, by calling your broker and ask em to give you examples.
for example, if today you purchased 1000 shares of EFUT (either single order or multiple orders) and you place a sell for 500 shares. That's 1 daytrade. If you place another sell for 400 shares, let's say, that would be 2 daytrades total already.
If you had made a single trade for a sell of 1000 shares (even though you may be bought them with multiple orders), that would be considered 1 daytrade.
Just to be sure, go ask your broker. I have to warn you, some brokers have employees that don't even understand the Rules. Etrade is the worst, i've heard.
EFUT: still not overvalued. I now believe (because of the volume i'm seeing) it will go to $50.
Daytraders are now in love with EFUT. It will be in play for awhile!
EFUT: yahoo shows it has a float of 45k. I don't think it's correct.
Beanie
is it ok to buy EFUT @ this price or should I wait on a dip??
EFUT: this is the kind of stock you probably dont want to jump in and out unless youre good. Set a price you want to get out. I believe it will see $40.
anonymous,
regarding EFUT, no it's not a good idea to buy it here
Hey Beanie,
The answer is I don't want to keep jumping around. The swing on EFUT scared me...BLRC is not as volatile LOL. So, you want me to sell and buy something new? NYX is your new tip? I'm kinda played out due to CSUD loss. Pamfla
Beanie,
OPS, 94.00 a share? Out of my league..LOL Pamfla
BRLC is now boring...Is there NEWs coming out next week, Man your Board is packed....message 35
Pam
EFUT, if you think it's going to 50 why isn't it a buy here?
-mark
mark,
for intemediate term holders, you can buy it at any price.
But i was speaking to daytraders/swingtraders. EFUT is still a buy if it closes strongly.
EFUT: the right time to buy was this morning, but if you're late there might not be much you can do about that. EFUT is way overbought short term, but because the float is so low and there are so many traders looking at it now I am not really sure if we will get a correction.
If you plan to hold until $40; obviously you can buy it here, or wait till the close to see if you can get it lower.
pamfla,
just hold BRLC. You'll be ok.
EFUT: yahoo is showing 1.5 million shares outstanding yet i remember reading from their earnings report that there were 3 million shares outstanding. If you own this stock, you should go find out. If at 3 million shares, i would sell EFUT near $30, as opposed to $40, on this momentum run.
Have a great weekend everyone!!!!!!
See ya next week...
lee,
LMRA is consolidating. Don't buy. We need to find out the results of their test.
Have a great weekend!
Gargoyle Investor attacked GIGM at $9 just last month or two ago and they got slammed by the longs.
PART TWO OF GARGOYLEINVESTOR.COM’S STRONG
NEGATIVE OPINION ON GIGAMEDIA LTD. (NASDAQ: GIGM)
The Gargoyle Investor (www.gargoyleinvestor.com) today initiated a STRONG NEGATIVE opinion on GigaMedia (Nasdaq: GIGM) based on the recent unwarranted significant increase in its stock price. In our opinion, GIGM does not deserve its most recent stock appreciation and its current market capitalization of over half a billion dollars because of the following serious concerns:
(Sources: GIGM SEC filings, earnings press release, analyst reports and CONVERSATION WITH MANAGEMENT)
GIGM Continues to Test SEC Laws Despite its Pending Class Action Lawsuit
Their most recent earnings release claims significant growth in earnings. However, unless you dig through their filings, you likely wouldn’t be able to figure out that, in their hometown of Singapore, trading gains can and have been recognized as income. Of course these “trading gains”, based on our research, appears to be nothing more than the sale of GIGM stock in the open market. Further, we would like to highlight that this past quarter benefited from a one-time gain of nearly $8 million from the sale of a subsidiary. (Source: GIGM SEC Filings: “Consolidated net income for the period included a one-time pre-tax gain of approximately $7.7 million from the sale of the Company’s ADSL business.”)
Excluding this one-time impact, the Company’s net income would not have been up over 819% as they highlight in the headline of their 2Q06 release. In fact, excluding this gain, the GIGM’s year-over-year earnings and EPS would have been flat. Further, if you remove the proceeds from the sale of its own stock, which is recognized as income because of Singapore Law, one might come to the realization that: GIGM LOST MONEY, ONCE AGAIN, IN THEIR MOST RECENT QUARTER.
Excluding these unusual accounting treatments, we are confident you will find that GIGM will continue its trend of burning cash and generating significant losses. In fact, GIGM continues to be ranked last in its sector in every financial ratio possible, including ROA, ROE, CFROIC and EVA. Since investors are obviously ignoring these metrics and valuing GIGM based on its “publicity ratio” (i.e. our favorite cable TV stock personality combined with his affiliated Website), it is our opinion that GIGM will likely return to its “pre-promotion” valuation of less than $5 faster than its rise to it’s market cap of over half a billion, which we believe is a bit high for a Taiwan/Singapore-based company that recorded a tad bit over $60 million in the past TTM, has more debt than cash available (including a not so friendly convertible debenture) and a history of losses, litigation and a management team that has tarnished its credibility from day one.
Appears that PricewaterHouse Coopers Agrees with our Research - - Particularly Relating to Non-Compliance with Sarbanes-Oxley and its Audit which Resulted in the Replacement of PricewaterHouse by “GHP Horwath, P.C. - - Infamous for Handling “Asian Public Companies”
From the horse’s mouth: (Source: GIGM SEC filing) “We are not yet required to comply with the Section 404 requirements. Nonetheless, in 2004, we requested our independent auditors to evaluate our internal controls over financial reporting, and they identified certain material weaknesses in our internal controls. In February and May 2005, our audit committee was notified by our preceding independent auditors, PricewaterhouseCoopers, in connection with their audit of our consolidated financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2004 that they had identified certain material weaknesses in our internal controls…” Anybody bother to ask what happened to the 2005 audit?
GIGM is the Subject of a Pending $1 Billion Class Action Lawsuit Relating to its IPO
Unfortunately, regardless of where you reside - - whether it be Taiwan or Singapore - - nobody is above the law these days, including GIGM. In December 2001, a Class Action Lawsuit was filed in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York against GIGM in connection with its IPO. Our research indicates this Class Action Lawsuit will not only distract management’s time but also its much-needed capital as well as depress its stock price upon settlement. (Note: This is one of two lawsuits against GIGM, both currently pending.)
A $15 Million Convertible Debenture?
Management was kind enough to outline what typically happens with such a note: According to their SEC filing, “In addition, our issuance of approximately US$15 million zero coupon convertible notes, 50 percent of which are due January 1, 2008 and 50 percent of which are due January 1, 2009 in conjunction with our acquisition of FunTown, may encourage short selling in our Shares by market participants because the conversion of the convertible notes could depress the price of our Shares.” In other words, we can almost assure you that GIGM’s whopping 40 shareholders of record are not responsible for over 1-2 million shares in volume.
GIGM’s Total Current and Long-Term Liabilities, as of the Second Quarter, Totaled over $32 million, Exceeding their Cash Position
In a nutshell, in our opinion, we would not be surprised if the Company capitalizes on this latest spike in price to raise additional capital before they lost this latest round of “hype” and end up back in the “red” since they have no other assets to sell for one-time gains to make up the difference, other than of course their own stock which, lucky for them, Singapore Law allows them to account for it as income.
Conclusion
There are a number of additional negative factors impacting GIGM that we will likely provide after this initial report on the Company. In an effort to quickly disseminate our justification for our NEGATIVE OPINION, we wanted to make sure our subscribers had our initial remarks handy prior to the next round of remarks, which will likely focus on their largest investor, which coincidentally is a fund managed by two of GIGM’s former Board Members.
Please stay tuned as GIGM tends to repeat this “exercise” almost religiously every year or so.
Gargoyleinvestor.com
I am posting the above on the message boards right now. I do not recommend you guys panic sell. I don't think the stock (GIGM) will move higher until the weak hands leave.
If i don't post it, somebody eventually will. We might as well get it over with now.
i got it from:
http://www.marketwatch.com/discussions/msgReader.asp?siteId=yhoo&parentId=2&forumId=5&boardId=19279&msgId=9
This was just sent to me and my be of further interest to us.
A small world? Not for GigaMedia
November 9th, 2006, filed by Marc Gerstein
In his classic “One Up On Wall Street” Peter Lynch describes the perfect stock, as something “that makes people shrug, retch, or turn away in disgust is ideal.”
Gaming stocks wouldn’t qualify for the most part. Where some see vice, others see good recreation and good business. But if the “casino” is virtual, the U.S. now considers it a felony. The development may bring on-line gaming software company GigaMedia Ltd. (GIGM) into a Lynch orbit. Yet as far as the company is concerned, the world is big place, enough so that it has long avoided the U.S. and confined operations to countries where the activity is legal. The stock has landed on the Reuters Select Lesser Known Stocks screen. We use the screens to filter for stocks using financial, market, and estimate data. We don’t tell you what to buy (or sell), but show you what stocks pop up based on whatever criteria we’ve set.
Here’s the full list of data tests that must be satisfied on the Lesser Known Stock screen:
* Stock’s trading volume over the most recent 10 market days must average at least 20,000 shares
* Stock is covered by no more than five analysts
* Institutions own no more than 50% of the outstanding float
* Institutional percentage ownership must be less than 80% of the average level of institutional ownership for stocks in the industry
* Latest quarter’s year-to-year EPS growth rate must be positive and above industry average
* Over the past 52 weeks, stock’s percentage price change should be at least zero
* Percentage price change over the past four weeks be no worse than -10%
* Net institutional share purchases in the latest quarter reported by the institutions be no less than zero
LINK:
http://blogs.reuters.com/2006/11/09/a-small-world-not-for-gigamedia?src=daiblog
beanie
Do you know when the test results will come out on LMRA? And what do you mean when you say "consolidating"
Sorry about the dump question... I am new to the stock market. I would like to invest in LMRA for the long run 3-5 years. Do you think its ok to buy now before the result?
Thank you
anonymous,
This is the last comment before i be gone for the weekend.
Regarding LMRA, go back to previous press release. Something about millimeter wave testing results part two. Mid november, expect a press release.
LMRA is too speculative for a newbie. I'd rather you put that money into NYX or MA instead for a 3-5 year hold.
Even if LMRA could get their products out, we don't know whether they'll make money or keep on burning thru cash and keep on issuing stocks. Too many loose ends with LMRA. I would definately wait for the news rather than buying ahead of the news. Their microarrays will be available on January. But we don't know how much they will sell or whether they will make money from the products, after paying product cost, employees expense, rent, etc.
But if you insist on loving LMRA, then i would recommend you buy 1/2 now and the other 1/2 after the press release if you still like it.
Beanie,
I had a good feeling with EFUT when I bought it at 11.58. I should have used my margin account to buy a big chunk, like I did with RVBD and DIVX. I just could not believe it will go up so fast. I am thinking of buying on any kind of a dip to shore up my 100 shares. Do you think EFUT will be a good long term hold? I'm still holding some RVBD, SMSI, DIVX like you suggested, I'll try to hold it as long as possible to see if I could get a multi-bagger. Thanks for your latest find-EFUT.
Beanie
Do you think BBY is a buy due to holiday shopping season? What's your take on the oversold CAT?
Both stocks I want to buy at these level. Good reward vs risk?
anonymous,
CAT is a good buy here. It is short term oversold.
BBY is kinda iffy here because it's sitting at the 200dayMA slightly above 52. As long as it stays above 52, it's ok. I would buy 1/2 for now.
sgv,
EFUT has moved up too far too fast. But that is the nature of micro floats. Yahoo is showing a float of 45,000 shares but i read 1.5 million on the float in their filed report. Maybe something had changed when they went ipo. You should read up on it. If it is really 45k in the float, there will be no stopping this monster. As long as traders think that the float is this tiny, they run themselves over trying to get some shares.
I would like to see their next earnings to see what kind of real potential this company has.
I recommend you folks sell 1/2 when you get over 100% (or maybe 200%?) return and ride the rest for free. That way, you'll never have to worry what EFUT does. That is the best to way to trade, imho.
Good luck everyone.
It is so important to sell 1/2 on any of your positions that have doubled. You get to ride the rest of them free shares, for years if you want. Maybe the stock may end up splitting a few times in the future and really make you happy. By selling 1/2, you are FREED SOME CASH to buy OTHER stocks. If you guys keep on doing this, who knows, you might eventually end up buying the next EBAY.
Beanie
Thanks for taking the time to respond this weekend! I'm going to buy some CAT next week.
Good pick on EFUT. I wished I bought.
Beanie,
What is your take on SMDI? As you said, I was stupid enough not to take some profits at $13 range from where it fell to $7.5 now. Company did not announce anything bad and looks good and the fundamentals/business are sill intact.
Please provide your valuable comments.
Thanks in advance.
Beanie,
BRLC, up 11 points in pretrading.
What's going on?
Pamfla
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